Electoral Boundary Review

The much-anticipated publication of the Electoral Commission constituency review this morning has thrown up more than a few surprises. The recommendations of the Commission air on the more cautious side of the debate recommending 14 extra seats overall, spread across 43 constituencies, an increase of 4 constituencies. This means there will be one TD for every 29,593 people nationally, just under the 30,000-limit required by the constitution. The commission has recommended keeping no fewer than 16 constituencies above the 30,000 limit, something which the residents of Clare, Donegal, Kerry and other places may feel aggrieved by. It has also guaranteed that there will be a further increase of seats after the next Census.

Prioritising County Boundaries?

The Commission has defended the decision not to increase the number of TDs further on the basis that doing so would lead to more breaches of county boundaries, more incoherent constituencies and more three seaters. The latter would lead to a more disproportionate overall result and favour larger parties. In the mind of the Commission, it would appear that county boundaries trumped other considerations.

Winners and Losers?

Overall, the larger parties will be happier with the outcome, with the number of 3 seaters increasing from 9 to 13, while the number of 5 seaters has only increased by 2. The recommendations see additional seats for Mayo, Dublin Mid-West, Cork North Central and Cork South Central, Dublin West, Longford-Westmeath and Kildare It will take time to digest the full implications, but strategists in Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be broadly happier this morning. Spare a thought for the people of north-west Kilkenny, who now find themselves in the constituency of their hurling arch-rivals and are now part of Tipperary North!

Implication on makeup of next Dáil

So how will this impact the 34th Dáil? Our next Dáil will increase from 160 TDs to 174 – we can hear the panic from the Leinster House ushers who will need to physically fit more seats into the Dáil chamber! In terms of forming a government 88 is the key number: half of 174 seats gives us 87, plus one = 88. ?As we hurtle towards the next General Election, 88 is the number of seats that a party – or with this particular election in mind, more likely a coalition of parties – must find if they are to form a government. Over the coming days and weeks party strategists will study in detail these boundary changes and constituency redraws seeking to see what candidate it suits, where the possible votes are, and where they could well go. What was already expected to be a historic and exciting election looks set to be even more interesting!