Elections specials: What does Erdogan’s defeat mean for Turkey?

In today’s special edition, we analyse the recent vote in Turkey and the upcoming second round in Slovakia. Enjoy!

What does Erdogan’s defeat mean for Turkey?

"We have won, the era of the one man in charge is over". Ekrem Imamoglu is?beaming, the mayor of Istanbul who has obtained more than 50% of the votes, was reconfirmed as the first citizen thus beating Murat Kurum, the candidate supported by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was stuck at 40%. When he took the stage, the square exploded in a liberating shout, acclaiming him as a very long war-winner.??

On Sunday evening, as soon as Imamoglu's victory became clear, people gathered in Sarachane Square in the Fatih district, the stronghold of the Islamic party. A river of people, young people, families with children in their arms, red flags with crescent moons in their hands, poured into the streets, dancing and singing in a burst of happiness not seen in a long time. "Turkey was born secular and will remain so". "Erdogan, resign," they shouted.?

The opposition also took to the streets in Ankara, where the capital's outgoing first citizen Mansur Yavas closed with a thirty-point lead over his opponent, Turgut Altinok. Secularist victory in the Izmir stronghold, the country's third largest city, and in other large cities such as Adana and Mersin. A surprise was the AKP's defeat in Bursa, another major industrial centre of the country where Erdogan has always won in the last elections. The Turkish president is left with the main centres of the Black Sea coast and a good part of central Anatolia, where, however, the CPC wrested some provinces from the AKP, and the nationalist opposition party Iyi won in Nevsehir. Other surprises in Anatolia came from the ultra-nationalists of the Grand Union, Buyuk Birlik, who, with a party that did not reach 2%, won an important centre like Sivas. In contrast, the religious Refah party wrested the province of Yozgat from Erdogan's AKP.?

On Sunday night, at 12.30 p.m., the Sultan, as his detractors call him,?admitted?defeat. The figures speak for themselves. The AKP lost the lead in the nationwide consensus, standing at 35.49% against the CHP's 37.74%. An overtaking that can undoubtedly be called historic.?

But is it enough to call the beginning of the end for Erdogan??

Like everywhere else, local elections in Turkey are always different from presidential and legislative elections. Many people vote for specific people and not for political programmes. Last Sunday, Republican Party (CHP) voters were more motivated than AKP voters. This made the difference. The general situation in Turkey has not changed dramatically in the last 10 months. The?economic crisis, for example, is nothing new. Therefore, the election result is best understood based on the electoral fatigue of many AKP voters who gave victory to Erdogan last May. At the same time, CHP candidates (e.g. Ekrem Imamoglu in Istanbul and Mansur Yavas in Ankara) were better than the party's presidential candidate in May 2023 (Kemal Kilicdaroglu).?

Moreover, the next presidential elections will be held in 2028 in Turkey. This means that there is still a lot of political time ahead. Ekrem Imamoglu is an important political figure. Besides his personality, the fact that he is mayor of Istanbul has symbolic significance. Tayyip Erdogan also started his political career in Istanbul. At the same time, we should not forget that a Turkish court convicted Ekrem Imamoglu. Imamoglu will also face internal CHP competition with others like Mansur Yavas, the mayor of Ankara. But the substance of the question is very important. If early elections were held, Tayyip Erdogan could stand again as a candidate. This is only allowed for him in the case of early elections, according to the Turkish Constitution.??

This is a factor that absolutely must be taken into account.?

Slovakia, round two

In the first round of the presidential elections in Slovakia, the EU witnessed?a surprise victory?for Ivan Korcok, the former pro-European foreign minister, who obtained 42.51% of the votes (for a total of 958,393 preferences) against 37.05% for Peter Pellegrini (834,718), former premier and head of the governing party Voce. The two will go to the ballot this Saturday, 6 April.?

Korcok - who is supported by the Liberal opposition, ahead of the runoff, preaches calmness. "I have my feet on the ground. Before the second round, we are all aware that we will have to do more to get closer to the voters," he said. Pellegrini, the current president of the Slovak Parliament, is an ally of Prime Minister Robert Fico, who in recent months announced a stop to arms supplies to Ukraine, which is considered a country "under the total control and influence of the United States", and therefore "not sovereign". In contrast, Korcok appears to be more in line with continuing to support Ukraine, at least in words.?

The turnout in this first round was 51.91%. Thus, it exceeded that of the first round of the presidential elections five years ago, which stood at 48.74%. Some 4.4 million people were called to the polls. On the ballot on 6 April, they will have to choose the successor to President Zuzana Caputova, who announced last June that she would not run again 'for personal reasons'. In Slovakia, presidents play a mainly ceremonial role but are also the supreme commanders of the armed forces, appoint judges and central bankers, and have veto power that can slow down legislation.?

While Pellegrini can count on the strength of his majority, Korcok could instead take advantage of the wave of?protests?that has swept through Slovakia's largest cities in recent months, particularly after Parliament gave the green light on 8 February to reform the Criminal Code. Wanted by Pellegrini's ally Prime Minister Fico, the reform provides for the shortening of the statute of limitations for the most severe crimes - from 20 to 5 years - and the abolition of the office of the special prosecutor dealing with crimes such as organised crime and high-level corruption (with the return of cases in the hands of prosecutors from regional offices). The opposition's complaint is of an attempt to weaken the judiciary through a 'mafia reform package' - which favours members of Fico's party and supporters of the high-level government - in a country where the current prime minister himself had to resign in 2018 following the murder of journalist?Ján Kuciak?and his fiancée Martina Ku?nírová, who had exposed links between criminal organisations and the Slovak elite.?

With this reform of the Criminal Code, a clash could open up in Brussels, similar to the one that led to the activation of the conditionality mechanism for the rule of law in Hungary. When the draft was presented, the EU Commission, the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO) and the EU Parliament?warned?Bratislava that the changes to the Criminal Code could 'seriously' undermine the level of protection of the EU's financial interests in Slovakia, specifically in the area of corruption, fraud and mismanagement of EU funds. In this scenario, countermeasures in Brussels would be inevitable.?

After the entry into force on 15 March - with some slight modifications to meet the objections of the three EU institutions - the EU Commission is called upon to assess the reform as a whole and decide whether there are still concerns that justify actions ranging from infringement proceedings to the activation of the conditionality mechanism on the rule of law.?

On Saturday, Brussels’ eye will be watching.

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