Election Watch 2024: What to watch for among the 40 leadership races this year

In 2024, 50% of the world's GDP will be voting in an election. The results will likely have profound implications on public policy, including hot button topics like immigration. In any election year, immigration is a core issue, but with a growing trend towards protectionism, the potential policy impact on businesses’ ability to attract and recruit talent from around the world, move employees across borders, and expand and build business in new markets may be significantly impacted.

It is vital that businesses with a global footprint and talent in multiple regions, countries and territories, and their employees on special visas and work permits, stay attuned to upcoming elections, and proactively develop corporate mobility plans to prepare for immigration policies that could change overnight. Companies that have readiness plans for regulatory changes will be better positioned to be of service to those affected, be it their clients or their employees.

The 2024 geopolitical landscape

Just last month, Taiwan’s current vice president, Lai Ching-te, won the presidential election, pulling off a historic third consecutive win for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which champions Taiwan’s separate identity from China. Taiwan’s independence will continue to be an ongoing issue in the triangle between U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, and with Taiwan’s significant tech contributions to the global economy, any policy impact on talent and production in the semi-conductor space, could have far-reaching implications beyond neighboring countries.

Of the many races happening in 2024, here are the ones many around the world are closely monitoring:

●?????? The U.S. presidential election could bring about tectonic shifts in domestic and foreign policy with a newly elected President. Former President Donald Trump, if re-elected, has pledged, among other policies, to deny entry to legal immigrants based on their ideological beliefs. This could have significant, overnight impacts to various foreign workers in the U.S.

●?????? The UK will elect their next prime minister later this year and immigration is already a major campaign issue. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government pledged to cut migrant arrivals and deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, and more recently, it introduced an increase in the minimum salary threshold for individuals who’d like to sponsor visas for their overseas spouses. The threshold will increase from ￡18,600 to ￡38,700, leading to the separation of many families based on cost alone. Vialto Partners’ UK and Ireland Immigration Partner Ian Robinson shared in a City AM editorial that the minimum salary threshold will also apply to skilled overseas workers, who must now earn ￡38,000 (increased from ￡26,200) to qualify for a visa. This policy will greatly impact companies with skilled overseas workers if it continues.

●?????? In the Netherlands, the Party for Freedom, the country’s far-right populist party, won, but they don’t have a coalition government set up yet. The party’s leader, Geert Wilders, advocates for anti-migration policies, including supporting a freeze on asylum seekers. While we wait to see what Wilders can actually achieve with a coalition government, companies operating in the Netherlands should begin to evaluate their operating procedures and understand their foreign population make-up ahead of any expected immigration policy changes this year.

●?????? The Austrian parliamentary elections will take place in the fall and several polls predict that the Freedom Party, the country’s far-right populist party, will win. The Freedom Party advocates anti-immigration policies, including pushing for a freeze on asylum seekers and the implementation of a “fortress” around Austria. If the Freedom Party is victorious, companies that do business in Austria may have to adjust to new timelines for worker visa approvals and country access.

●?????? The European Union elections will take place in June 2024. It’s anticipated that there will be a shift to the right with increasingly restrictive approaches being pushed on immigration policies. The EU election is important as the European Parliament that is formed as a result will influence the 27 European Commissioners sitting during the 2024-2029 term. The political leanings of the commissioners will affect the longer-term immigration strategies the EU has, and whether there will be a more integrationist or nationalist approach to EU strategy going forward.

●?????? The South African presidential election is scheduled for this summer, and it will be the country’s tightest election since apartheid ended. The African National Congress (ANC), which has held the majority since 1994, is unpopular due to rising crime, poverty and unemployment. To consolidate power, the ANC might ally itself with the populist Economic Freedom Fighters – the second-largest party in South Africa, who advocate for the seizure of mines, banks, and land. Mining and financial services companies with operations in South Africa must closely monitor the election results and ensuing policy changes to ensure their businesses remain intact and operational.

●?????? Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is favored to win re-election this spring. Vialto is monitoring how Modi’s re-election could impact the already strained Indian-Canadian relationship which led to a halt in negotiations for a free trade agreement between the two countries. A win for Modi’s BJP party is likely to see increased nationalist approach to foreign policy and an increasingly protectionist, “India-first” approach to the country’s immigration policies.

Corporate migration dynamics

Businesses can’t just monitor these elections; they need to anticipate how the outcomes will impact their routine business operations, including training programs and foreign work postings:

●?????? Visa sponsorships: In the United States, the immigration fees have increased by 40%, leaving companies with a major mobile population to pay a higher cost to move immigrant workers to the United States.

●?????? Training programs: Barriers to entry for foreign workers could be instituted in multiple countries this year. Training programs that bring newly hired workers to a foreign country for training must account for these changes.

●?????? Talent acquisition: As tech companies navigate ongoing shifts in market dynamics, economic downturns, and technological disruptions, foreign national employees continue to find themselves facing uncertainties regarding their employment – and as a result, their visa status. Layoffs can lead to heightened anxiety and challenges for these workers, as they may need to quickly secure new job opportunities to maintain their immigration status. On the policy front, governments in election countries are reassessing immigration regulations in response to economic downturns, potentially affecting the eligibility criteria for work visas or introducing new measures to protect domestic employment, where a shift to more protectionist positions takes place. Striking a balance between fostering innovation through attracting top foreign talent and addressing domestic unemployment concerns becomes a delicate task for government policymakers. The tech industry's dynamism, coupled with the influence of global events, continually shapes immigration policies, creating an intricate landscape for foreign national workers– an area which many continue to monitor closely.

Conclusion

?The results of these elections will have a significant impact on millions of people and businesses. Public policy, including immigration laws, could change overnight, leaving businesses stranded without guidance on how to navigate the new restrictions. Companies that proactively plan for these moments will be best positioned to continue their routine operations without delays and avoid reputational issues.