Election thoughts
There will be a lot of political analysis, of course, but we have to find some common ground on priorities as we move forward.
A last minute Gallup poll showed the top five issues for those leaning/voting R and leaning/voting D were completely different. Not a good starting point.
How legislation will move forward will, of course, depend on who is the new leader of the Senate and if the House is controlled R or D, although it looks like the Republicans will likely retain control.
Many are worried about the harsh rhetoric by Trump. Others who support him say he is just blowing hot air and posturing.
Trump will "show his hand" quickly through whatever executive actions he takes when he returns to office and via selection of a cabinet in transition.
I did find it interesting enhanced abortion protections passed in 7 of 10 states that had it on the ballot and got 57% support in FL but failed since it needed a super majority of 60% to pass. People supported an issue but did not necessarily give a corresponding vote for Harris related to it, even though it is a major issue probably most associated with her.
Unlike 2016 and 2020, Trump is expected to win the majority vote by about 3 million after the West Coast votes, skewed to Harris, are fully counted.
(Edited Monday, November 25 to update totals)
With almost all ballots counted Trump has 76.8 million votes, up from 74.2 million in 2020 (+3.5%). A popular margin win over Harris of 2.5 million.
Harris has 74.3 million votes, closing the gap post Election Day to Blue state West Coast results, but is well short of the 81.3 million votes Biden received in 2020, with a drop of 9.1%.
Third Party candidates garnered 2.5 million votes, so on a rounded basis Trump received 50% of the vote.
To compare, Hilary Clinton had just under 66 million votes in 2016, beating Trump by nearly 3 million, so Trump made a significant jump in 2020 and modestly grew it in 2024.
2016 was also a big year for third party voting with 6.7 million votes, so Clinton did not win the majority vote.
Biden's support in 2020 represented a tremendous surge and a shift away from third party candidates.
Trump also grew a lot and the overall vote participation jumped 6.5% in a very contested election. Total turnout was 66.6%.
Trump supporters turned out in support of him this year and Biden/Harris lost a significant amount of support.
The electoral college is a flawed, antiquated structure, so I have to give Trump credit for winning the popular vote outright.
Still, he is far away from any sort of claimed mandate.
I need to do a lot of listening to understand the motives of others. I know it is much harder in a state that voted 58% for Harris and even higher in King County, especially the City of Seattle, where I live. Seattle voted 92% for Biden in 2020. I am not in Trump country.
If you are someone who is in another state or in Washington state, but voted Trump, I welcome getting some of your perspective in the comments area.
If the votes were fundamentally about economics, or the perception of the economy and where it is headed, I think Biden (and thus, Harris) has not received enough credit for both how bad it could have been and what has been achieved.
As President Biden stated in a brief speech on Thursday, much of what has been accomplished legislatively, like the infrastructure funding and reduced medicine costs are now being implemented and many construction projects will take place over the next ten years as long term benefits to the economy.
Our unemployment rate is modest, inflation has dropped dramatically and been lower the last year; our GDP growth has been the best of the industrialized nations.
Is it perfect, no.
One significant employment statistic closer to me is that long-term unemployment (27 weeks or longer) has grown from just over 1 million people in February 2023 to 1.6 million in October.
This has grown from 18% of those unemployed to 24% of the seven million unemployed in October. The largest segment effected are age 55+. I know many "mature" workers in my network who have been unemployed or underemployed for a long stretch.
There has been a "while collar" recession the last few years, led by reduction in employment in the tech sector, while general job growth has been happening.
And younger people feel long-term economic opportunity, especially related to home ownership, is too limited along with the general cost of living, especially rent, and while carrying debt more significantly vs. past generations.
These are a reflection of many years, not just what has transpired the last four or eight years.
Trump, shockingly, captured the majority of the vote for those age 30 and under in Michigan and reduced the Harris total in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to under 60%, the traditional youth vote for Democrats.
Over all, though, we have apparently had the "soft landing" that was the hope, which has led to the first easing of interest rates.
A second reduction, one quarter percent, was announced today (Thursday), bringing their rate back to the Spring 2023 level.
Rates are threatened longer term by a potential significant increase in the national debt based on Trump economic plans related to tax cuts and tariffs.
Immigration saddled the Democrats and especially the president and vice president. It is a complex issue both socially and, of course, has elements of economics involved in it too. I won't get into that now, though.
The Biden Administration has ten weeks left to lead and we will have more clarity on the direction of a new Trump Administration by spring via his cabinet selections, legislative priorities and the composition of both the Senate and House by next week.
How political forces choose to work together or not, to truly balance varied economic and social interests remains to be seen.
About Me
I have been a career sales professional in B2B sales. This has included managing my own territories, selling jointly with others and managing sales teams.
My career started in Seattle with the Puget Sound Business Journal, but a significant portion of my professional time was in California, split between Los Angeles and Orange County, before a return to Seattle.
Also
I am owner and community manager for the LinkedIn group?Seattle Sales, Marketing and Advertising Professionals, which has 4900+ members: (4) Seattle Sales, Marketing & Advertising Professionals | Groups | LinkedIn
Also one of the first million members of LinkedIn (2004). I have been an active blogger on the platform since 2014, when the option was first offered.
Advisor
2 周Steve, Thanks for your thoughts and for the invite. I shed nary a tear for the defeat of Kamala Harris and the in-the-shadows president Barack Obama's defeat at the hands of Trump. That my vote for Trump was cast in Pennsylvania made me feel that I was a part of dispatching Obama to the dustbin of history. History will eventually record that Obama destroyed the last vestiges of FDR's Democratic Party and that Obama led the Democrats into the wilderness. I did feel that the defeats of Bob Casey (PA) and Sharrod Brown (OH) were unfortunate as I consider them two of the better Democrats in the Senate. For the record, I voted for Casey. He was, perhaps, the last genuine New Deal member of the Senate. As for Trump's strong showing among young men, I was no more surprised by that than I am surprised that the sun comes up every morning. I spend enough time watching videos on YouTube by young men of all races to clearly understand their anger for the screwing society is dishing out at them. Watch out for they are more politically aware than average for their age and will be a force in the future. My prediction is that the young women coming of age behind them will, in large numbers, reject modern feminism. Want to say more but can't.
Steve, this election was a referendum on policy. While Trump's mouth can get him in trouble, his policies are more.sound than the giveaways from Biden/Harris. They did some good (infrastructure and chips) but more damage by appealing to the far left side of the party. My hope.is that this is a move to the middle for both parties. Trump will make the world safer than Harris would. She was put in a tough spot, but hopefully the Dems will take a hard look at the party after this election. The Republican party moved more to center, rather than listening to the extreme part of their party. It paid off down ballot for them. I hope this country takes a breath and focuses on realistic policies versus the extreme nonsense both parties have given us in the past. Hoping we see a better America in the future. A famous golfer once told a president politics is like golf. Hit it too far left, you get in trouble, too far right trouble...keep it in the middle and things will go well.
Founder, CEO at IgniteLocal
2 周Steve, thanks for your thoughts. I think your observation that Trump won so decisively with the same number of votes he'd lost with in 2020 just exposes one very large truth - Biden didn't get 81 million votes in 2020. Separate irrefutable proofs show his count was fraudulently inflated some 25%. So the this time the Republican candidate got the same as last time but the Democrat got 22% less? I don't think so. I think Trump made election integrity such a big issue that it was being watched so closely by Republican observers that the same fraud wasn't able to be repeated. As much as it's not popular to say, I firmly believe Trump won the last election and the victory was stolen. Hillary got 66 million votes, Harris 68 million and Biden 81 million when the Republican candidate was stuck at around 71 million? No. Biden, again, never got 81 million votes. Interestingly, I saw the historical movie 'The Free State of Jones' last night. It appears Democrats have been doing the same thing for 150 years. Today we can help restore integrity will by making voting machines and absentee voting illegal - which I believe will happen.