Election Scenarios, I'm dealing you in!

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OK, let’s have some more fun. Here are the various outcomes.

Let's represent the various electoral scenarios with their associated probabilities and then compare each to a poker hand in Texas Hold'em with a similar percentage chance of winning.

This will help illustrate the strategic positions of both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the election, extending our poker analogy in way you can learn pretty quickly.

Electoral Scenario 1: Trump Wins Pennsylvania

• Trump's Chance of Winning the Election: 93.8%
• Explanation: Winning Pennsylvania significantly boosts Trump's path to 270 electoral votes. It acts as a tipping point state, greatly increasing his overall chances.

Poker Hand Analogy

• Hand After Flop: Trump holds A? A?, and the flop is A? K? 5? (Trump has a set of Aces)
• Opponent's Hand: K? Q? (pair of Kings)
• Trump's Chance of Winning: Approximately 95%

This scenario reflects Trump's dominant position after winning Pennsylvania, where Kamala Harris would need a highly unlikely set of events (like the opponent hitting running Queens for a full house) to overcome his lead.

But wait… there’s more!

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Electoral Scenario 2: Harris Needs to Win Two of the Following States

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris must win at least two of these states/districts to reach 270 electoral votes:

• North Carolina
• Georgia
• Arizona
• ME-2
• Florida
• Texas
• Ohio
• Iowa
• Alaska

Assuming she targets Georgia and Arizona:

• Harris's Chance of Winning the Election if She Wins Both States: Let's estimate 60%

Poker Hand Analogy

• Hand: Ace-Queen Suited (A? Q?) vs. King-Jack Offsuit (K? J?)
• Harris's Chance of Winning: Approximately 64%

This reflects Harris's position if she wins two key states—she has a better than even chance, but the game isn't over yet.

Electoral Scenario 3: Harris Wins Popular Vote by 2-3 Points

• Harris's Chance of Winning the Election: 57.2%
• Explanation: A modest lead in the popular vote translates to a slight advantage in the Electoral College due to its structure.

Poker Hand Analogy

• Harris's Hand: A? Q?
• Flop: Q? 7? 2? (Harris has top pair)
• Trump's Hand: Flush Draw with K? J?
• Harris's Chance of Winning: Approximately 65%

This hand closely matches the 57.2% chance of winning the election, illustrating that while Harris is favored, the outcome is far from certain, and the opponent still has substantial drawing possibilities.

Electoral Scenario 4: Harris Wins Popular Vote by 1-2 Points

• Trump's Chance of Winning the Election: 72.7%
• Explanation: A narrow popular vote margin may favor Trump due to the Electoral College system, increasing his chances despite losing the popular vote.

Poker Hand Analogy

• Hand: Made Hand vs. Draw After Turn

This scenario reflects Trump's advantageous position when Harris has a slim popular vote lead. Trump has a strong hand (set of Tens), but Harris still has outs to win (completing the straight).

Electoral Scenario 5: Harris Wins Three Key States (e.g., Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina)

• Harris's Estimated Chance of Winning the Election if She Wins All Three States: 80%

Poker Hand Analogy

• Hand: Top Pair with Top Kicker vs. Lower Pair

This is higher than 80%, but it illustrates a dominant position where Harris is likely to win unless an unlikely event occurs.

Conclusion

• Trump's Strong Position After Winning Pennsylvania: Like holding a nearly unbeatable hand, forcing Harris into a difficult spot where she needs a rare outcome to win.
• Harris's Need to Secure Additional States: Similar to drawing cards to complete a strong hand, she must win key states to improve her chances significantly.
• The Impact of the Popular Vote Margin: Reflects how slight leads can translate into modest advantages, but not guarantees, much like marginally better poker hands.