Election Outlook – Issue 10 (11 days until Election Day)

With a little more than a week until Election Day, the differences between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s campaign styles are coming into sharper relief. Clinton is seeing encouraging signs from increased Democratic turnout in early voting to favorable polling trends and is now leading a party-wide effort to make gains in down-ballot races. Trump is growing increasingly isolated from his party and, while he increased spending on TV ads last week, his campaign activity during the last few weeks is limited to rallies in battleground states.

In the sprint going in to the election, congressional races are seeing dramatic investments on both sides of the aisle as Democrats seek to capitalize on Clinton’s growing lead and Republicans seek to minimize the damage due to the top of the ticket.

At the governor level, we may see significant ticket-splitting. Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia could pull off wins in states that Trump is expected to win, while in Vermont, a Republican could take the governor’s mansion while Clinton takes the state’s electoral votes.

KEY DATES

Tuesday, November 8 – Election Day

Potential voters can use CanIVote.org, run by the National Association of Secretaries of State, to check their voter registration status and, if necessary, register.

Early voting started across the country with thirty-five states and the District of Columbia permitting some form of early voting at polling sites and by mail before Election Day. Early voting dates for all states can be found here.

RACE PREDICTIONS

This summary provides an array of predictions and draws on data from five polling sites: the Cook Political Report, Rothenberg/Gonzales Political Report, RealClearPolitics, the New York Times’ Upshot model or “Leo,” and Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. Each source is well respected and often cited by members of both parties. All of the sites use different methodologies when calculating their predictions. Cook Political Report and Rothenberg/Gonzales rely on a wide variety of data including recent presidential elections, while RealClearPolitics takes a weighted average of recent polling data, and Leo and FiveThirtyEight build their own algorithms to predict outcomes.

PRESIDENTIAL

In the third and final debate on October 19, Hillary Clinton again outperformed Donald Trump. Trump focused his answers on policy for the first half but eventually devolved into familiar defensive attacks on Clinton and, in what will likely be one of the most infamous lines of the campaign, said that he would “keep America in suspense” as to whether he would accept the results of the election.  Since then, Clinton’s poll numbers have remained consistently ahead of Trump as he struggles to resuscitate his campaign and she pivots her attention to helping elect down-ballot Democrats.

News from the Front Lines

• Republicans: Trump’s path to the White House is narrowing, and Republican leaders, lawmakers, and donors are implementing emergency plans to shift focus and resources away from the presidential campaign to save their congressional majorities. Two weeks out from Election Day, the Trump campaign announced that Trump Victory, a joint committee with the RNC, would stop holding high-dollar fundraisers, which could have serious consequences for a Republican Party already struggling to match spending by Clinton and Democratic-aligned groups. Trump still intends to keep a full schedule through Election Day, holding a campaign rally almost every night during the closing days in battleground states including Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Ohio. His campaign also spent $14.4 million on television advertising during the week of October 18, outspending Clinton for the first time during the campaign.         
• Democrats: Clinton and high-profile surrogates, including President Obama, are fanning out across the country to make her closing argument to voters while emphasizing the importance of electing Democrats in down-ballot races. There is increased focus on the importance of early voting, where Democrats hope to boost their numbers ahead of Election Day. The Clinton campaign is maintaining an intense campaign schedule leading up to the election, working to energize voters and drive Democratic turnout. Clinton sharply criticized Republican Senate candidates at rallies in Florida, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania while boosting Democratic challengers as her campaign increasingly focuses on ways to help down-ballot races.  

GENERAL ELECTION PREVIEW

State of the Races – October Surprise

The October Surprise is an ambiguous, but long-standing, concept in presidential campaigns. World events, domestic politics, or new revelations about a candidate occurring in the closing weeks of the campaigns have the potential to shift the momentum of a race, but the events do not always have a definitive effect on the election results. This year, October was full of new revelations and events that helped and hurt both campaigns. In case you could not keep up with the barrage of news, below is a rundown of the high (and low) lights:

Oct. 1:      TheNew York Times publishes a portion of Donald Trump’s 1995 tax returns, showing deductions that could have protected him from paying taxes for years.

Oct. 4:      In the Vice Presidential debate, Mike Pence is generally considered the winner over Tim Kaine, but his performance does not change the status quo of support for either party’s candidate.

Oct. 6:      Hurricane Matthew hits Florida, prompting the Florida Democratic Party to file a successful lawsuit to extend voter registration deadlines an extra week. The Clinton campaign postponed an ad reservation planned to air on The Weather Channel after critics charged that the ads take advantage of the natural disaster.  

Oct: 7:     Audio of Trump making sexually explicit comments about women in 2005 during a visit to Access Hollywood sparks outrage among Democrats and Republicans. Wikileaks releases the first batch of emails it attributes to Clinton campaign manager John Podesta.

Oct: 8:     Dozens of Republican lawmakers desert Trump over the Access Hollywood audio release. Many have since returned to support him.

Oct. 9:      The second presidential debate is marked by personal attacks and animosity between the two candidates. Hillary Clinton is named the winner of the debate and sees a bump in poll numbers.

Oct. 10:    Speaker of the House Paul Ryan tells his conference that he will no longer defend Trump and will shift his focus to maintaining congressional majorities.

Oct. 11:    Trump launches a tweet-storm against his party, accusing them of providing “zero support.” 

Oct. 12:    The first group of a growing list of women accuse Trump of sexual assault and unwanted sexual advances. Trump threatens to sue The New York Times for publishing the accusations.

Oct. 13:    Michelle Obama delivers a passionate denunciation of Trump during a speech in New Hampshire, saying, “This is disgraceful, it is intolerable, and it doesn’t matter what party you belong to. No woman deserves to be treated this way…”

Oct. 15:    Saturday Night Live features the second presidential debate in its cold open, which Trump claims is proof that a biased media is “rigging” the election.

Oct. 17:    The Clinton campaign deploys surrogates and targets resources to Arizona, a traditionally red state that could be in play this year. Her campaign also announces $10 million in funding for competitive Senate races.

Oct. 19:    During the third presidential debate, Trump says he will “keep America in suspense” when asked if he will accept the election results and calls Clinton a “nasty woman.” Clinton gets another bump in the polls.

Oct. 20:    Clinton and Trump appear together at the annual Al Smith Dinner, a usually cordial affair, but both candidates’ speeches were peppered with especially sharp comedy and serious commentary on their opponent.

Oct. 22:    The California National Guard announces that it will require service members to pay back improper reenlistment bonuses received in 2006 and 2007. Republicans use the story to highlight their support for veterans and the military.

Oct. 24:    The Obama Administration announces that health care premiums for plans under the Affordable Care Act will increase an average of 22 percent in 2017.

Oct: 27:   Details on the relationship between the Clinton Foundation and Teneo, a consulting firm headed by top Bill Clinton aide Douglas Band, is released by WikiLeaks and scrutinized in the news. 

Oct. 28:    FBI Director James Comey informed congressional leaders that the agency would restart the FBI’s probe of Clinton’s server, which previously ended in July with no charges. 

State of the Races – Fundraising

Outside groups have raised over $200 million this cycle, with the majority of the funding going to support the Clinton campaign. The largest Republican-aligned groups, such as American Crossroads, are largely absent from the presidential campaign, focusing their resources on down-ballot races. Democrats have largely consolidated their fundraising to one Super PAC, Priorities USA, which will raise close to $175 million by Election Day. By comparison, Trump-aligned groups have raised approximately $46 million to support the businessman’s campaign.

Trump reported raising $100 million in September, his best fundraising haul of the cycle, and finished the month with approximately $75 million cash on hand. The total includes $2 million of Trump’s own money, raising his total self-funding figure to approximately $56 million. However, the total lags behind Clinton, who raised $154 million in September for her campaign and joint victory fund with the Democratic Party. Since the start of the campaign, Clinton has raised $445 million for her campaign, more than double Trump’s $218 million total.

State of the Races - Advertising Spending

Presidential campaign television advertising spending is less than half the level of the 2012 presidential election. A recent study found that 117,000 ads were aired between September 16 and October 13 this year, compared to 256,000 ads in the same time period in 2012. Clinton’s campaign and her allies are airing approximately three times as many ads as Trump and his allies. Priorities USA, the Democratic Super PAC backing Clinton, aired more than 21,000 ads, while the National Rifle Association’s (NRA) Institute for Legislative Actions aired more than 5,000 ads to support Trump. Total TV advertising spending on the presidential race is roughly $350 million.

By comparison, more than half a billion dollars in advertising has aired in the battle for the Senate. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where Republican incumbents are battling for re-election, have seen over $90 million in spending so far, with Ohio, Nevada, and Florida each topping $55 million. Outside groups are pouring money into Senate races, with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) spending over $60 million on advertising and the pro-Republican Super PAC Senate Leadership Fund spending over $54 million, including an influx of $25 million two weeks before Election Day.

State of the Races – Polling

In an average of recent national polls, Clinton leads Trump by approximately six points. Trump’s support hovers around 42 percent in most polling, while Clinton bounces between 42 percent and 53 percent. Beyond individual polls, which only provide a snapshot of the race at a given time, the trend lines favor Clinton, whose lead since late September continues to widen. 

Clinton currently leads Trump by five or more points in six of the eleven battleground states: Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. When combined with the states that President Obama won in both 2008 and 2012, Clinton would garner more than 270 electoral votes and the presidency. To win, Trump must flip one of the states Obama swept, as well as run the table on the remaining battlegrounds: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio. While he holds leads in some polls in Iowa and Ohio, the Clinton campaign is aggressively targeting all five states with advertising, surrogates, and visits from Clinton and Kaine.

The Clinton campaign is also targeting the traditionally red states of Georgia and Arizona, where polls have shown her statistically tied with Trump. In addition, independent candidate Evan McMullin is drawing significant support in ruby red Utah and could become the first third-party candidate to win a state in a presidential election since 1968 when George Wallace of the American Independent Party won five southern states and 45 electoral votes. Ross Perot won approximately 19 percent of the popular vote in 1992 but did not net any electoral votes.

Poll numbers for the presidential and congressional races are being continuously updated. The latest polling for candidates in competitive races can be found here.

Click on the links below for a full list of electoral projections from each state:

Cook Political Report

Rothenberg/Gonzales

RealClearPolitics

FiveThirtyEight

New York Times

SENATE

The battle for the Senate majority is narrowing to six key states: Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Democrats must pick up four seats to capture the majority if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency or five seats for outright control. Both parties concede that Wisconsin and Illinois, seats currently held by Republicans, are likely to flip to Democratic control. However, pick-up opportunities in Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio may have slipped out of Democratic hands, as strong Republican incumbents appear likely to hold on to their seats. 

President Obama is deploying across the country to boost Democratic candidates while also appearing in advertisements for Deborah Ross (North Carolina), Katie McGinty (Pennsylvania), and Tammy Duckworth (Illinois). Meanwhile Senate Republicans are trying to thread the needle between supporting Donald Trump while also appealing to moderate and independent voters in their states.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican Super PAC with ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), announced a $25 million investment into six states – Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania – to shore up endangered incumbents. The group’s largest investment is in Nevada where it is doubling its commitment in the lead up to Election Day to boost Representative Joe Heck in one of the few remaining Republicans pick-up opportunities.

News from the Front Lines

• Arizona: Despite Clinton’s growing support in Arizona, Republican incumbent John McCain remains well-positioned in his race against Democratic Representative Ann Kirkpatrick. McCain is drawing support from Republicans, independents, and approximately 25 percent of Democrats, while building a double-digit lead over Kirkpatrick. However, the Clinton campaign’s decision to invest $2 million in advertising buys, direct mail, and get-out-the-vote efforts could boost Kirkpatrick in the final week.
• Florida: President Obama appeared at a Miami rally where he touted Democratic Representative Patrick Murphy while sharply criticizing Republican incumbent Senator Marco Rubio. Obama noted the contrast between Rubio’s criticisms of Trump and his final decision to endorse the Republican nominee. Rubio holds a small but narrowing lead over Murphy as Clinton maintains her lead over Trump in most, though not all, Sunshine State polls. Democrats are reportedly divided over the decision to withdraw party resources from Florida, with outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and his allies believing that Murphy remains within striking distance of Rubio. Others, including incoming Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, argue that the party’s resources can be used more efficiently in other states.
• Georgia: Republican incumbent Senator Johnny Isakson has nearly $2.3 million as his race heads into the final stretch. Democratic challenger Jim Barksdale pulled in over $300,000 in the third quarter and has around $800,000. Barksdale fired most of his campaign staff in late summer and hired a number of staffers from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ presidential bid. Recent polling shows Isakson with a healthy lead over Barksdale. However, Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley is also running and pulling enough support to potentially hold Isakson below the 50 percent support threshold, which would force the race into a run-off on January 10, 2017.
• Illinois: Democratic Representative Tammy Duckworth outraised incumbent Republican Senator Mark Kirk for the fifth consecutive quarter, pulling in $4.1 million compared to Kirk’s $1.2 million. Kirk is widely viewed as the most vulnerable Senate incumbent this cycle, and the DSCC recently cancelled advertising reservations to shift priorities to closer races. Kirk was the first Senate Republican to disavow Trump, but the GOP nominee’s headwinds and Illinois’ strong Democratic base are likely too strong for him to overcome.
• Indiana: The Clinton campaign is sending resources to Indiana to shore up former Democratic Senator Evan Bayh in his race against Republican Representative Todd Young. Bayh is coming under heavy attack by Young and Republicans for his time in Washington following his surprise retirement from the Senate in 2010. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Bayh’s former employer, was the source of some attacks and endorsed Young. Bayh’s popularity in the state gives Democrats hope, however, that they can flip the seat of retiring Republican Senator Dan Coats.
• Missouri: Democrats are increasingly optimistic about Secretary of State Jason Kander’s chances against Republican incumbent Senator Roy Blunt. Kander, whose candidacy was propelled into national headlines when he released an ad where he assembled an AR-15 assault rifle blindfolded while discussing gun rights, is using his outsider status to attack Blunt, who began serving in Congress in the late 1990s. Blunt and his allies are focused on tying Kander to Clinton and President Obama, who are both unpopular in the state. Vice President Joe Biden appeared at campaign stops with Kander, and the Clinton campaign recently sent additional money to help with get-out-the-vote efforts in Missouri.
• Nevada: Democratic Secretary of State Catherine Cortez Masto grabbed a narrow lead in public polling over Republican Representative Joe Heck, bolstering Democrats’ hope of holding on to retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s seat. Cortez Masto appeared at a Las Vegas rally with Clinton and continues to criticize Heck’s initial support of Trump. Heck revoked his endorsement of the GOP nominee, but he is now facing backlash from his base and declined to say who he will vote for, saying “it’s a personal decision.” Cortez Masto may also be benefitting from strong early voting numbers.
• New Hampshire: Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan continues to tie Republican incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte to Trump, despite Ayotte’s decision to withdraw her support of the Republican nominee and write in Indiana Governor Mike Pence for president. Republicans actually maintain a staffing edge on the ground in New Hampshire, with 222 people on payroll, while the Democrats’ staff is about half that size. Clinton appeared at a rally alongside Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren where both women praised Hassan and sharply criticized Ayotte for initially supporting Trump.
• North Carolina: Former Democratic State Representative Deborah Ross narrowed Republican incumbent Senator Richard Burr’s lead throughout the summer, and recent polling shows the two in a statistical dead heat. Ross is also benefitting from major investments from the Clinton campaign and Democratic party, which have over 300 staffers on the ground in the state. While Republicans have traditionally led in mail-in ballots, Democrats are hopeful that their ground operation cut into that lead with early in-person voting potentially creating a bigger bounce for Ross.

Polling Projections

Cook Political Report Projections:

Rothenberg/Gonzales Projections:

RealClearPolitics Projections:

New York Times Projections:

HOUSE

Hillary Clinton’s campaign announced unprecedented coordination efforts to boost Democrats running for House seats, including granting use of her 455 battleground state offices, speaking opportunities at Clinton campaign events, and cross-promotion on donor scripts. Specific races that will benefit directly include:

• ME-02, Cain (D)/Poliquin (R)
• NE-02, Ashford (D)/Bacon (R)
• AZ-01, O’Halleran (D)/Babeu (R)
• AZ-02, Heinz (D)/McSally (R)

President Barack Obama is also using his growing popularity to increase Democrats’ margins in the House by cutting TV ads for five competitive House races, endorsing candidates in 30 more districts, and recording robocalls and radio ads that will continue through Election Day. Republicans are leaving nothing to chance and increasing investments in districts previously considered safe, hoping to build a firewall around Members who are most likely to be hurt by the Trump effect, notably in suburban, highly-educated districts.  

News from the Front Lines    

• CA-49: Republican incumbent Darrell Issa, a long-time Trump supporter and Obama Administration critic, sent out campaign mailers touting his support of the Survivors’ Bill of Rights, which protects victims of sexual assault, featuring an image of President Barack Obama signing the legislation. The shift in tone from Issa’s campaign signals that he is worried about Trump’s unpopularity filtering down-ballot and sinking his chances at re-election, especially as Democratic challenger Doug Applegate continues to run ads tying Issa to the Republican nominee. The district is a model of the affluent, suburban district where Trump does not play well.  Issa’s decision not to take Applegate seriously until mid-September makes it a prime Democratic pick-up opportunity. Cook Political Report shifted the race to the toss-up category, the first such rating for Issa in his career.       
• IL-10: Former Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider was the first congressional candidate to air an ad featuring President Obama in his race to unseat Republican incumbent Bob Dold. Hillary Clinton is leading Trump by double digits in the polls, meaning Dold will have to outperform Trump by a significant margin to win. It is a steep, but not impossible, climb for the moderate Republican, who outperformed Mitt Romney in 2012 by eight points, though he still lost the election to Schneider. Dold recaptured the seat in the 2014 midterms.     
• MN-08: In one of three pick-up opportunities for the GOP, Republican Stewart Mills is up in a recent poll from SurveyUSA that shows a 45 to 41 percent lead over Democratic Representative Rick Nolan. Democratic polling from around the same time shows Nolan up 49 to 41 percent, but Trump leading Clinton 39 to 38 percent. This Iron Range seat is home to a lower proportion of college graduates and has a lower median income than the nation as a whole, so Trump could do well here and provide some kind of coattails to Mills. Both Republican and Democratic ad reservations are around $4.8 million each, and neither side is backing off in the last week of the campaigns.      
• MT-At-Large: House Majority PAC announced a $450,000 investment to help Democratic candidate Denise Juneau’s bid to unseat Republican incumbent Ryan Zinke. Internal polling from Juneau’s campaign shows her with a narrow 45 to 42 percent lead, contradicting a poll from Zinke showing him up 49 to 38 percent. National Republicans have not yet stepped up to help Zinke, but Trump is leading Clinton in most Montana-specific polling.    
• NE-02: Democratic Representative Brad Ashford is one of the few members of his party with endorsements from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), but a recent GOP poll shows Republican candidate Don Bacon leading 48 to 44 percent among registered voters. The seat represents one of only three top pick-up opportunities for Republicans, and the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund have invested $2.7 million on TV and digital ads. Meanwhile, the DCCC and House Majority PAC have $1.8 million reserved. Nebraska is one of two states that split their electoral votes by congressional district, and both presidential candidates are also focused on it. In the GOP poll, Trump leads Clinton 44 to 40 in the district.        
• NV-04: This weekend,Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will visit this district for an event with Republican Representative Cresent Hardy, who is facing Democratic State Senator Ruben Kihuen in a seat that voted in 2012 for President Barack Obama 54 to 44 percent. In order to win, Hardy will have to outperform Clinton by significant margins, but a recent Democratic poll from GBA strategies shows him trailing Kihuen by a narrow 40 to 38 percent. Both sides are spending heavily in the district. The DCCC and House Majority PAC have a combined $4.5 million in reserved ad time, while the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund have reserved $3.5 million.                
• NY-22: Self-financing, third-party candidate Martin Babinec, who says he would caucus with Republicans if elected, received an endorsement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber is not spending heavily this cycle so the endorsement might not come with actual resources, but it is driving Republicans’ fears that Babinec will draw support from GOP nominee Claudia Tenney and hand the election to Democratic candidate Kim Myers. The House Majority PAC is doing its part to make that scenario a reality by airing an ad that appears to attack both Babinec and Tenney, but highlights Babinec’s conservatism in an effort to split the GOP vote.   
• NY-24: Freshman Republican Representative John Katko, once on the list of top 10 vulnerable incumbents, is expanding his lead over Democrat Colleen Deacon. In a new poll released on October 20, Katko was up 23 points, 54-31 percent, an increase of four points from the end of September. Among those surveyed for the poll, a quarter of Democrats and more than half of independents said they would vote for the Republican. Katko is over-performing Trump in the district by 20 points.    
• VA-05: While Republican Tom Garrett is ahead in polling, the Congressional Leadership Fund is taking no chances and announced last week that it is doubling its investment in the race from $400,000 to $800,000. The DCCC added Democratic candidate Jane Dittmar to its Red to Blue Program in late September. The seat is open following Republican Representative Robert Hurt’s decision to retire at the end of his term and should be safe Republican territory, but the increased investment by the GOP is likely part of its effort to build a firewall around candidates.

Polling Projections     

Cook Political Report Projections:

Rothenberg/Gonzales Projections:

GOVERNORS

Despite national trend lines, Democrats are poised to defend seats in states where Donald Trump is expected to easily win such as Missouri and West Virginia. Meanwhile, Republicans are looking to defend seats in Indiana and North Carolina while targeting deep blue Vermont as their top pick-up opportunity of the cycle.  

News from the Front Lines

• Indiana: Democrat John Gregg is leading Republican Lieutenant Governor Eric Holcomb in the race to succeed incumbent Republican Governor Mike Pence. Gregg, who lost a narrow race to Pence in 2012, was anticipating a rematch but drew Holcomb when Donald Trump picked the incumbent as his running mate in July. Gregg holds close to $5 million cash on hand heading into the final week of the campaign, while Holcomb pulled in $7.7 million after replacing Pence atop the ticket and holds $4.8 million cash on hand.
• Missouri: Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster continues to lead Republican challenger Eric Greitens in polling as the race to replace retiring Democratic Governor Jay Nixon rounds into the home stretch. Independent candidate Lester Turilli Jr., who is appealing to the conservative Christian wing of the Republican Party, could garner one or two percent of the vote on Election Day, possibly swinging the race in Koster’s favor.     
• New Hampshire: Democratic challenger Colin Van Ostern holds a nominal lead over Republican Chris Sununu in a race that will likely come down to the final days as both parties pour resources into the state for the presidential and senate races.
• North Carolina: Republican incumbent Governor Pat McCrory appears to have closed the gap with Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper with recent polling showing McCrory trailing Cooper by only one point. Cooper lead McCrory in polls throughout much of the summer after hammering the incumbent for his decision to sign the controversial HB-2 bathroom bill. McCrory’s leadership in the wake of Hurricane Matthew, which caused massive flooding in the state, may have boosted his favorability ratings among voters.
• Vermont: Republican Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott narrowly leads Democratic Former Secretary of Transportation Sue Minter in a recent Vermont Public Radio poll. Liberty Union candidate and former Montreal Exports pitcher Bill “Spaceman” Lee received two percent support while 14 percent remain undecided. U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders appeared at a campaign rally in southern Vermont to boost Minter and other Democrats.

Polling Projections

Cook Political ReportProjections:

Rothenberg/Gonzales Political ReportProjections:

RealClearPolitics Projections:

AD OF THE WEEK

Gerald Daughtery, running for re-election as Travis County Commissioner, released what some people are calling the ad of the cycle. It prominently features his wife Charlyn, urging voters to re-elect her husband, noting that “Gerald doesn’t have any hobbies” while Gerald rattles on about the impact of mass transit projects and proposed tax rates. If you are tired of the constant attacks ads and negativity currently on the airwaves, watch the spot here.

SOCIAL MEDIA HIGHLIGHT

In the last days of the campaign, two of Donald Trump’s advisors, Boris Epshteyn and Cliff Sims, will host a live show on the candidate’s Facebook page every night through Election Day from the campaign’s “war room” in Trump Tower. The show will serve as a lead-in to the rallies Trump is holding for the remainder of the campaign, which will also be broadcast on his Facebook page. Trump’s use of Facebook Live as an alternative to network and cable news outlets is widely viewed as a test-run of a potential Trump media venture post-election. Watch the nightly show at 6:30 pm EST here.