Election 2020 – Every Cloud has a Silver Lining

We shouldn’t lament what see unfolding in the aftermath of the election of 2020. When all is said and done, all 50 states have certified their results, court challenges have been adjudicated and the Electoral College meets we will have a clear winner and the fears of many voters, however misplaced they may be, will have been laid to rest. In the end our democracy is likely to come out stronger rather than weaker.

Tension Lingers After Election

Election day is behind us but the tension lingers amid a chorus of discontent. Not since the election of 2000 has a candidate refused to concede.  Back then Al Gore at first conceded, then recanted to fight a legal battle over a close vote in Florida. After losing the battle for a recount at the Supreme Court Al Gore conceded and urged the country to support incoming President George Bush. We can also recall the eloquent concession speeches of Republicans John McCain and George H.W. Bush and most recently, Democrat Hillary Clinton.

George W. Bush and Al Gore meet following the contested election of 2000. Photo courtesy AP.

More often than not it becomes apparent very quickly who wins a presidential election. The usual course of events is that even before the votes are fully tallied the media project the winner and the losing candidate quickly recognises the apparent realities. Long before the results are officially certified and the Electoral College meets planning for a transition of power from an outgoing president to an incoming president begins.

This year, of course, is different. With nearly the entire vote counted the mainstream media has declared Joe Biden to be the President-elect. President Trump refuses to accept that result. He claims the voting was fraught with fraud and he has launched a barrage of litigation in several states seeking to toss out ballots he claims were not legally cast. He’s also issued orders preventing government agencies from providing President Biden transition planning support and national security briefings.

Critics of the President say that the President’s refusal to concede the election runs counter to political norms and undermines America’s democratic institutions. They argue that his constant tweets and statements alleging massive voter fraud constitute disinformation and undermine the faith and confidence of the American public in the electoral process. They argue as well that by hindering the transition process the President is placing America’s national security at risk and making America look weak to our adversaries.

Many of us may not like what we consider to be the President’s political foibles. Joe Biden called the President's refusal to concede "embarrasing." But we should take comfort that times like these actually strengthen our democratic institutions and build faith and confidence in the electoral process.

America's Robust Electoral Process

Firstly, we must understand that in all 50 states the electoral process is subject to continual scrutiny. Poll watchers from both political parties monitor the voting and the actual counting thereafter. The election does not end the moment news media make a projection. We should recall the election of 1948 when Harry Truman famous held up the a newspaper with the headline “Dewey Wins” after the votes were finally counted.

The reality is that an official count of the votes is often not finalized for several days after election day. A highly organized and transparent process takes place where canvassing board composed of Democrats and Republics review and approve mail-in and absentee ballots, allow voters to cure ballots that have technical deficiencies and approve or cast aside provisional ballots.  Only after that process is complete do thousands of local election boards across the country certify their results and send them to their Secretary of State for the final outcome to be legalized under state law.

Many states have an automatic recount process, usually triggered when the differential between winner and loser is less than 0.5%. The recount process is usually done by hand and is subject to external scrutiny.

Before and after the results are certified a discontented candidate or political party can present evidence and arguments in court and seek to overturn the results. If the court finds irregularities the court will also determine if those irregularities are great enough to change the result. If indeed a court finds the election was seriously flawed the election may be re-run. If not, the results stand.

Thus far despite whatever claims of fraud or illegality the President has made, no court has found the evidence sufficient. The President’s challenges have gone in front of judges in several states and courts have concluded that either the evidence was not sufficient or the claim had no legal merit. This is also a highly transparent process and the court rulings become a matter of public record.

The electoral process continues when each state sends electors to a meeting of the Electoral College. Electors are usually bound to cast their vote based on the instructions from their State, which in turn stem from the results of the electorate. Over the last two centuries there have been instances where Electors have cast votes contrary to their given instructions, so called “faithless electors.” Even in some instances competing groups of electors have arrived at the college, each claiming to have the right to vote.

Ultimately if the electoral college is not able to produce a clear winner the final selection is made in the House of Representatives.

So while it may seem the President is dragging the country through a mud bog, we must remember that there are 70 million supporters of the President, many of whom may have legitimate concerns about the electoral process and will be in fact grateful to see these concerns set aside through the course of events. We must also remember that many voters believe whatever the President says be it true or false and therefore call into question the victory of Joe Biden. Many of these people will come to accept the final result.

Photo courtesy of Time Magazine

Over the last few days we have seen numerous Republican elected officials, assure voters that the election was conducted fairly and according to the rule of law. Election boards across the country will have learned from mistakes and will work to improve the process. These are good things for our democracy. They ensure faith in the electoral process.

America's Founders Anticipated Election Disputes

Over the last two centuries since America’s founding there have been many contentious elections. Our Constitution provides mechanisms to settle disputes. The first contentious election was in 1800 between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, which was finally settled by vote of Congress. Nearly a century later in the election of 1876 the contest between Rutherford Hayes and Samuel Tilden was marked by allegations in multiple states of voter intimidation. What we are going through today pales in comparison to the tumultuous election of 1876. The election was settled ultimately by political compromise and a vote of the House of Representatives.

The Post Election Reckoning

We shouldn’t lament what see unfolding in the aftermath of the election of 2020. When all is said and done, all 50 states have certified their results, court challenges have been adjudicated and the Electoral College meets we will have a clear winner and the fears of many voters, however misplaced they may be, will have been laid to rest.

In the end our democracy is likely to come out stronger rather than weaker. The President’s charges of fraud and irregularities will have been subjected to public scrutiny at the state and federal levels by State and Federal Courts, even at the Supreme Court. Republicans, Democrats and independents will have confirmed that indeed Joe Biden is the winner. And if somehow what we think is the result turns out not to be the result, President Trump’s second term will have been legitimized as well.

The American public will have a renewed sense of confidence that their votes were counted and the will of the electorate was heard resoundingly. What can possibly be better for a democracy than that?

Michael Sonenshine, CFA is CEO of Symfonie Capital, LLC. He is a graduate of the Willam E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration and has a professional career spanning more than 30 years. The author wishes to thank Tara Sonenshine (@TSonenshine) for her editorial suggestions. ? Michael Sonenshine. All rights reserved. [email protected]