El Nino is likely in 2023-24, What should farmers do about it?

Background

51% of the area in Agriculture is Rainfed , and that produces 40% of food production in India. This depends heavily on the monsoon.

Agriculture contributes about 19% to India's $3 trillion economy and employs more than half of the 1.4 billion population.

Current predictions

India Meteorological Division (IMD) has forecasted normal monsoon rainfall in 2023. However, a 90% likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern developing during the June-September monsoon season raises the possibility of less than normal rain.

UN FAO has predicted that India's output in Maize, Soya and Rice output may decline this year. Shortage of food can cause price inflation, which has recently risen and led to higher lending rates.

What is El Nino and how it impacts Indian monsoon?

El Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal. The warming causes changes in atmospheric patterns, leading to a weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent. As a result, the Indian monsoon tends to be weaker and less reliable during El Nino years.

Correlation between El Nino and rainfall

There were years when El Nino was weak and did not result in lower rainfall. Over time scientists found out about another phenomenon known as IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole). When that occurs in "positive" manner along with El Nino, it offsets the El Nino.

We are awaiting confirmation on the nature of IOD this year. So far it appears neutral. Likely update will come by May end by IMD.

What can farmers do about it?

a. We should encourage 100% farmers this kharif season to take Crop insurance (PMFBY) for sure this year. Average adoption of the scheme is only 40%, despite the low premiums.

* PMFBY - The Maximum Premium payable by the farmers is 2% for all Kharif Food & Oilseeds crops, 1.5% for Rabi Food & Oilseeds crops and 5% for Annual Commercial/Horticultural Crops. Govt of India covers the premium of the rest.

b. Follow a climate resilient package of practice.

These are not yet developed by the universities and released to farmers. NICRA (ICAR) is the nodal institute working on these.

1.????Climate resilient seeds

2.????Climate resilient bio nutrients - some of the products by Bioprime as example.

3.????Use of hydrogels for more water absorption & there is a lot more, and it varies by crop.

c. Integrated farming that has animal + crop + horticulture component is more resilient.

Practice such a farming, so that your income stream doesnt depend only on main crop.