El Ni?o / La Ni?a final update - December 2024

The 2023/2024 El Ni?o episode, the warming phase of the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation, was one of the five strongest on record, with temperature anomalies 2°C above the average in the Pacific Ocean. According to the World Weather Attribution, El Ni?o was the main driver of most of the extreme weather events occurring between September 2023 and May 2024, including droughts in Central America, Colombia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Philippines, across Southern Africa, in Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe, where impacts are still being felt. Additionally, El Ni?o contributed to widespread flooding in Brazil, Dubai and Oman, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and East Africa, underscoring its far-reaching effects.

Over 60 million people were affected, particularly vulnerable communities, impacted by the compounding effects of climate change, conflict and economic challenges.

Southern Africa experienced the harshest impacts, with over 30 million people affected by severe drought, resulting in the loss of livelihoods and high levels of severe food insecurity. In Eastern Africa, floods displaced communities and destroyed livelihoods, affecting 5 million people and in the Philippines, over 4 million people faced drought conditions. Central America saw 1.3 million people affected, while over 2 million people in Brazil faced devastating floods.

The effects of El Ni?o went far beyond food insecurity, with overlapping shocks compounding the hardships faced by vulnerable communities. Disease outbreaks, including cholera and malaria, surged in flood-affected regions, while protection risks increased, especially for women and children, who bore the brunt of displacement, poverty, and gender-based violence. Economic disruptions rippled through affected regions, further destabilizing livelihoods and social systems.

Tackling this crisis together

In January 2024, the Emergency Relief Coordinator, in consultation with the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), appointed Reena Ghelani as Assistant Secretary-General and Climate Crisis Coordinator for El Ni?o / La Ni?a Response, for a period of one year to help with resource mobilization, global coordination and advocacy. Here are some highlights of how this work unfolded.

Bringing partners together

Throughout the year, governments, humanitarian partners and local responders made remarkable efforts to mitigate the impacts of El Ni?o on food security, health and nutrition, including through quick funding mechanisms and anticipatory approaches.

The Climate Crisis Coordinator worked closely with governments, regional bodies, and UN partners to support an effective response, including through missions to Botswana, Eritrea, Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Philippines, Lesotho, Kenya, Indonesia and Thailand. These visits were often done with partners, both UN agencies and NGOs, demonstrating the importance of system-wide collaboration in tackling complex challenges. At the global level, the Climate Crisis Coordinator worked hand in hand with climate and disaster management focal points, to bring insights from the ground into global decision-making.

Some lessons learned

Although the 2023/2024 El Ni?o episode was less intense than the 2015/2016 event, its impacts were exacerbated by the heightened vulnerabilities in many affected regions and the compounding effects of climate change. Nonetheless, this episode revealed notable progress in response capacity, offering insights into improving preparedness and resilience.

Forecasts and early action

Significant progress has been made in recent years in forecasting and early warning systems in low-income countries. In East Africa, for example, the IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) has developed a strong capacity for long-range climate forecasting, accurately predicting the recent El Ni?o floods. In Somalia, the ICRC and the Somali Red Cross, as well as UN agencies, used long range forecasts to anticipate flooding, saving lives and protecting essential services. In southern Africa, several countries are piloting the implementation of the UN Secretary-General’s Early Warnings for All initiative, with Mozambique playing a leading role in on the African continent.

Early financing

During this El Ni?o episode, several climate-risk financing tools were used to enable a more rapid and cost-effective response. These included early action and rapid response disbursements from the CERF for a total of over $73 million, including $10 million from the Climate Account, but also over $62 million in insurance payouts from the African Risk Capacity, to Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The World Food Programme has also used complementary tools in Southern Africa, including micro-insurance payouts.

Integrated climate adaptation

In the various countries visited, the Climate Crisis Coordinator has observed the positive impact of integrated approaches that combined ecosystem restoration, economic development and climate-smart agriculture to foster climate resilience. For example, in Malawi, WFP is combining livelihood support with riverbank protection and reforestation, improving community’s income while restoring the soil’s fertility and protecting against floods and erosion. In Northern Kenya, Mercy Corps is supporting women agro-pastoralists through conservative agriculture, supporting livelihoods amid recurring droughts. This type of approach and its multiple dividends has been highlighted in a recent paper by the World Resources Institute.

Way forward

A lot of progress has been made in recent years, especially in forecasting, preparedness and early action, by both governments and aid actors. However, the scale and impact of the climate crisis, especially on vulnerable countries, calls for rapid scale up on every front, from coordination to programming to financing.

Mainstream climate expertise in all policy and programming

Attention to climate crises needs to be integrated in government and aid policy and programming at every level, giving rise to co-benefits in programming and avoiding the risk of maladaptive interventions.

Streamlined and strengthen coordination, and clarify responsibilities

A lot of good work takes place on the ground, but it tends to be fragmented and on a small scale. Improved coordination could pave a way for larger, more impactful and sustainable projects, and better use of limited financing.

Improve linkages between forecasting, preparedness and early action

High quality forecasting is often available, but not always well known or connected to preparedness and response efforts. Stronger linkages could save more lives and significantly reduce loss and damages from disasters.

Tools such as anticipatory action have demonstrated their added value, but need to be better coordinated, as noted by the Anticipation Hub.

Increase financing in fragile contexts

While progress is being made, only a fraction of development and climate finance reaches most affected people. There is scope to scale up financing for development and climate action in such contexts, building on the experience of humanitarian and local actors.

Invest in women and girls

They are routinely the most affected by climate disasters and at the same time central to success on nearly every front. Investing in gender equality and ending violence against women would strengthen household and community resilience and bring vast economic benefits.

Read more in our final issue here.