EL NI?O MAY BE PEAKING, BUT IT COULD BE SLOW TO FADE THROUGH MARCH-MAY

What to Watch:

? In October, the Ni?o 3.4 Region persisted in strong El Ni?o territory, but the event is likely peaking in intensity

? Key ENSO forecast drivers remain strong enough to support the continuation of El Ni?o through the balance of March-May, but it is still expected to dissipate in the first half of 2024

? Warm temperatures are expected as a dominant theme throughout March-May, while drought risks could become more limited to South/Southeast Asia

ONGOING DROUGHT RISKS COULD FINALLY BREAK ACROSS THE AMERICAS BY MARCH-MAY AS A FAVORABLE TREND IN THE MARCH-MAY OUTLOOK.

Figures 3 and 4 (below) show the global probability of temperature and precipitation anomalies during March-May based on the top analog years at this time. Crop impacts are discussed below for key crop regions where an intersection exists between the high probability of anomalous weather and various crop stages.

? North America (wheat/corn/soybeans): North America is likely to experience a mild and wet spring. Warm temperatures are expected from the Canadian Prairies through the Northern U.S. Plains, Midwest, and Southwest regions, while the Central/Southern Plains are likely to be cooler than normal. Specifically across the U.S., the Southwest region is expected to be cooler than normal, the Western/Central regions are likely to be near normal, and the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions are expected to be warmer than normal. High precipitation is anticipated over the Canadian Prairies, U.S. Plains and Midwest regions, while dryness could be limited to the Southeast U.S. If this outlook verifies, wet weather could help to break the drought in several regions to the benefit of U.S. winter wheat, and mild temperatures would also minimize concerns about planting delays for spring crops spanning the continent.

? South America (corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee): Mild temperatures and moderate to high rainfall could be in store during March-May in South America. Temperatures are likely to be cooler than normal over most of Brazil (except the north), and near normal in Argentina. Meanwhile, high rainfall is expected over most of Brazil, while Argentina could be slightly drier than normal. If this outlook verifies, cool/wet conditions along Central-West Brazil would be very bullish for 2nd crop corn, and similar conditions in the Southeast would benefit coffee/sugarcane as well.

? Europe/Black Sea (wheat/rapeseed/corn/sugar): A mild and wet spring is likely in store for Europe and the Black Sea Region. The temperature forecast during March-May limits cold risks to Western Europe, while the rest of the continent is likely to be warmer than normal. Meanwhile, an active storm track could bring wet conditions to most major crop regions of Europe/Eurasia. If this verifies, spring crop planting delays could be a minor concern for Western Europe, but the outlook would be very positive for winter crop development.

? Asia (wheat, palm oil, sugar, coffee): March-May is likely to feature widespread warmth and a divided precipitation pattern in Asia. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal spanning nearly the entire continent, with only northern India likely to be cooler than normal. On precipitation, dryness is expected over central/southern India and Indonesia, while high rainfall is likely in Vietnam/Thailand and Northeast China. Warm temperatures would be favorable for China crops just as high rainfall could benefit Vietnam coffee, while dry weather over Indonesia is potentially concerning for palm oil production.

? Africa (cocoa, coffee, maize): Warm temperatures are likely to be the main weather impact on Africa during March-May. Widespread warmth spanning West/South Africa is likely to occur throughout the season. Meanwhile, there are no strong indications for precipitation anomalies in March-May. Heat risks in West Africa could heighten downside risks to cocoa/coffee development as the main Africa crop impact.

? Australia (wheat/rapeseed): Warm weather could dominate in Australia during March-May. Temperatures are likely to be warm across most of the continent except Western Australia, where cool temperatures are expected instead. On precipitation, a mixed or near normal pattern is expected with no major anomalies. The potential for warmth could result in a rapid wheat/rapeseed planting campaign in Australia.

EL NI?O IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BUT HANG ON THROUGH MARCH-MAY AS ITS KEY DRIVERS HAVE STRENGTHENED OF LATE.

The October value (Figure 1) of the Ni?o 3.4 Region SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly was recorded at 1.7 °C, which represents a strong El Ni?o event for a second consecutive month. However, the shape of the curve appears to be making a top as it is nearly flat from last month, which suggests that El Ni?o may not strengthen much more, if at all from this point. Ocean Heat Content (OHC) has been strengthening of late, and combined with very weak trade winds, a moderate-to-strong El Ni?o event is still likely to persist for months. In fact, it is now likely to carry through the balance of the March-May season.

? ANALOG ANALYSIS: The analog-based forecast for March-May favors a weak El Ni?o state, showing a Ni?o 3.4 Region SST anomaly of 0.5 ?C. The global ocean picture from the analog scenario (Figure 2) features positive phase events in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Trans-Atlantic Dipole (TAD), both very consistent with current conditions and the latest forecasts for those indices across the major ocean basins. Therefore, the analog scenario demonstrates high confidence at this stage.

? NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE: The ENSO state from the analog scenario was compared to a multi-model consensus among seasonal forecasts, which come in with an average Ni?o 3.4 Region anomaly of 0.6 ?C for March-May. This trend is in line with the analog scenario for a strong forecast consensus.

? OFFICIAL FORECAST: The ENSO forecast consensus for March-May signals the continuation of El Ni?o, albeit at weaker levels with a Ni?o 3.4 Region SST anomaly of 0.6 ?C. The main risk for a departure from this forecast would be the potential for a more rapid dissipation of El Ni?o, which is indicated by some numerical models and has some historical precedent. Regardless, the expectation is for El Ni?o to fade away sometime in the first half of 2024 rather than being a long-duration event. This is supported strongly all indications, including the basin-wide Pacific-Decadal Oscillation that together suggest the potential for a return to La Ni?a by late 2024.

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I would like to thank the Refinitiv Weather Research team?for their contributions to the production of this article.