El Ni?o / La Ni?a Response - July update

The 2023-2024 El Ni?o episode has officially ended with return to neutral conditions, but the consequences will continue to impact people around the globe for the next months. We are working collectively to keep raising awareness and mobilize urgent support, while looking at strengthening climate resilience in the region.

Meanwhile, the likelihood of a transition to La Ni?a strengthens, bringing potential extreme weather and an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

In this context, it is urgent to scale up disaster risk and preparedness planning, including anticipatory action, and lay strong foundations for improved climate resilience. We can’t say we haven’t been warned.

La Ni?a is coming

There is now an 85% chance a shift to a La Ni?a episode by year end. Climate experts have switched to a “La Ni?a Watch”, but what does it mean concretely?

La Ni?a, the cooling phase of the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) usually produces climate impacts in reverse to those observed during the warming El Ni?o phase. Experts also expect an above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic, with high chances of experiencing 4 to 7 major hurricanes, against 3 on average.

The Central Emergency Response Fund and other humanitarian partners are preparing anticipatory action frameworks based on past experience. Previous La Ni?a episodes show that countries in Central America and the Caribbean, for example, might experience storms and floods while Ethiopia is likely to face drought and Pakistan, floods.

El Ni?o impacts continue

The situation in Southern Africa continues to deteriorate. After Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, Namibia declared a state of emergency and Botswana announced an extreme agricultural drought. The SADC Regional Appeal, launched on 20 May, is likely to be revised upwards.

In Zambia, over 50,000 children are expected to fall into severe wasting – the deadliest form of malnutrition – within the next 12 months, according to UNICEF.

In the Philippines, more than five million people were affected by the El Ni?o-induced drought and the country incurred $170 million in agricultural loss and damage.

Globally, the UN CERF allocated a total of $67.6 million in early action and rapid response for 11 countries most at risk of droughts, floods and cold waves, helping 2.5 million people.

Focus on climate finance

How much is needed?

We need at least $2.4 trillion annually to deliver on the goals of the Paris Agreement. In 2023, the world spent the same amount on military expenditures and three times that amount on direct and indirect subsidies to fossil fuel industries.

Moreover, climate finance doesn’t seem to reach those who need it the most. For example, the African continent receives only a fraction of climate financing, despite being the one of the most impacted, and contributing less than 4% of global emissions. An urgent course correction is needed to bridge the climate finance gap in a fair and equitable manner.

What is expected from COP29?

The 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) that will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 2024, will have a strong focus on climate finance. Member States are expected to agree on a new Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance, replacing the $100 billion goal set to expire in 2025. COP29 negotiations is expected to lead to a Global Goal on Adaptation, and a pathway to a third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions.

"These are challenging times.We’ve left ourselves with a very steep mountain to climb to achieve ambitious outcomes in Baku." UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell at the Bonn Climate Change Conference earlier in June.

Where are we with climate adaptation funding?

Out of the $1.3 trillion mobilized in 2022, only $63 billion (about 5%) were dedicated to climate adaptation. Adaptation finance is increasing quickly, but not keeping up with growing needs. There are also insufficient flows directed to most vulnerable countries: the bottom 10 recipients receive only 1% of funds, despite many being deeply affected.

Climate finance in Southern Africa

Angola, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe received $152 million per year on average over the past decade to adapt to climate change and manage climate risks, according to an analysis conducted by ODI.

“What we see is a historical underinvestment in climate adaptation, resulting in recurring cycles of climate-linked crises followed by short-term humanitarian assistance. This is unsustainable. Multilateral climate funds should play a bigger role in the future funding landscape, as they currently provide less than 5% of the overall funding for climate adaptation in these countries.” Yue Cao, ODI.

Latest news

Advocating for Southern Africa

United Nations and partners, brought together by the Climate Crisis Coordinator Reena Ghelani, urged for scaled up support in response to the drought in Southern Africa, including through an emergency roundtable held in June in Pretoria and a joint call to action. They reiterated their call to action during a Member States Briefing organized in July by OCHA, the AU and SADC. The region experienced its driest February in 100 years, and over 30 million people are now at risk of acute hunger.

Water security in the Horn of Africa

Representatives from eight UN agencies, NGOs and the private sector agreed on a regional initiative for water security in the Horn of Africa, at the initiative of IGAD, with the support from the Climate Crisis Coordinator’s office. Climate change and other factors are hindering access to water, intensifying conflict over natural resources in the Horn of Africa, where 30% of the population lives in arid areas. During the last drought in 2021-2023, 90% of the boreholes dried up. Regional leaders endorsed a $400 million investment package to strengthen water security in the region.

Humanitarians in the climate crisis

Aid workers are on the frontlines of the climate crisis, argued Reena Ghelani at the AidEx Conference in June in Nairobi. In 2020, the cost of climate disasters exceeded $258 billion globally, more than the entire global annual aid budget. Since climate change represents an existential threat for all of us, we must improve the way the humanitarian system prepares for and respond to climate disasters, she argued, calling for more investment in climate resilience.

The Climate Crisis Roadmap is launched.

Published by The Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), the network of humanitarian partners, the Roadmark offers six priority areas to step up climate action for those most affected by the climate crisis. It shares good practices and concrete propositions for humanitarian practitioners to avert and minimize loss and damage and help people adapt to a changing climate. Read more.

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