Ekiti election: a litmus test ahead of 2019 general election

Fayemi was declared the winner of the Ekiti governorship election on Sunday. My sincere hope is that that dude called Fayose, the incumbent governor of the state has escaped from Ekiti state. If not, the broken neck and the hand he paraded three days ago on TV will just be a mere Nollywood rehearsal and a tip of the iceberg of what is yet to come. Run to Rivers state now o. Wike will provide you a sanctuary for the main time pending when he leaves office.

The reason is not far-fetched: APC is somewhat on a mission of vendetta. Having dealt with Fayose, next is Wike. These two governors have vehemently opposed the ruling party's style of governance. Ameachi will come soon to take his pound of flesh. The only prayer Wike needs now is that the sequential arrangement of the 2019 electoral process as envisioned by the Presidency is jettison.

Again, opting for Adams Oshiomhole, the erstwhile governor of Edo state, as the national chairman of the APC and Festus Keyamo as campaign director for the presidency was strategic and so far has started yielding results. John Oyegun, the predecessor of Oshiomhole lacked the technicalities of steering the internal dynamics in the party; to galvanise support of powerful caucuses, lead fiercely, lash out at opposition party with voracity and consequently proffer top notched modalities to quash the voices of its opponents.

Ekiti has proven that. First win for Osho baba. More victory is still in the pipeline either by hook or by crook. The upcoming Osun state election will buttress this fact.

Sincerely speaking, I don't see APC falling in 2019. Its a sad prognosis considering the desperation by majority of Nigerians to truncate Buhari's further desire to seek for a second term. However, Buhari's victory might be a reality come 2019. To make matters worst, the main opposition party, PDP is yet to rally round a credible candidate within their fold. Don't be carried away by the alliance between the PDP and the 39 other political parties.

Trust me, the APC's implementation of the political road map to remain perpetually in power has already begun. Evidence abound already but I will point out one.

Prior to now, only two states in the South-West were controlled by the opposition - Ekiti and Ondo states. The APC has succeeded in capturing these states to their fold. The grand plan is to grab hold of the region in the build up to 2019. The South-East and the North Central are already aggrieved having been victims of the Fulani herdsmen killing spree in the latter and the intention to quash the succession plan of the IPOB in the former.

The South-South is a no-go-area for the APC. Except Edo state, the other states of Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers and Akwa-Ibom are controlled by the PDP. Essentially, the APC does not need a fragmented South West which partly explains the need to capture Ekiti state by "any means necessary".

More so, the need to lobby Saraki back into the APC fold so as to have strong footing in Kwara state is equally important. Perhaps that also explains the victory he got in the Supreme court on his illegal disclosure of assets. If you know, you know.

Also in the North Central, you can be rest assured that Yahaya Bello will deliver Kogi state to APC in 2019. Do you know why the South-South might not really matter to the APC? Its simple! The level of political apathy in the region is high. Most people who get their PVCs there rarely come out to vote. Compare that with the North and you will see why the Northern region will remain the strong hold of the APC.

Finally, expect "kudi" to flow yanfu yanfu in 2019... mehnn money go yakpa. Vote buying has gradually crept into electioneering process in Nigeria. 2019 will eventually be a case of "more money, more votes" displacing "one man, one vote". Ask the people of Ekiti and they will tell you.

I think the United States got it wrong on their projection that Nigeria will burn and break up in 2015, underlining such projection on the political postures and utterances of key political figures in the race for the Aso rock seat at that time. I think 2019 should have been the date and not 2015. February 2019 will redefine the political landscape and realign political interests across all divides. The indicators are there to support the assertion that Nigeria might experience turbulent times in 2019.

People are angry. What will cause an outburst of that anger is how the 2019 election plays out.