The EdSheet Vol. 10
Hello!
Longer essay today covering my perspective on the education market in 2024. If you have your own thoughts on the year, please send them my way! I’d love to collate into a follow-up post.
Early-stage entrepreneurs, please remember to apply to the Milken-Penn GSE Education Business Plan Competition (EBPC) before February 19, 2025! There is over $200,000 in (non-dilutive) cash available in the competition. More details below, entrepreneurs can apply here.
Matthew Tower , Vice President, Whiteboard Advisors
The Penn Milken Education Business Plan Competition
The Milken-Penn GSE Education Business Plan Competition (EBPC) application is open until February 19, 2025! The competition is open to education ventures worldwide addressing learning at any level, with less than $2M raised or earned in the past year—no Penn affiliation required!
The EBPC is the world’s premier competition for early-stage ventures tackling inequities in education through innovation. Since 2010, it's awarded more than $2 million, with winners and finalists securing over $200 million in funding.
This year’s applicants will compete for over $200,000 in cash and prizes and connect with global education leaders and investors.
2024 in Review
It has been a long 4 years in the education world. The COVID-19 pandemic set children’s academic progress back by years, roughly doubled the rate of chronic absenteeism in schools, and welcomed Gen Z into the workforce with Slack rather than in-office mentorship.
The pandemic was, briefly, a financial boon for education businesses. But the spike in valuation multiples was, mostly, a mirage and much of the industry has been nursing a financial hangover for the past ~2 years. The demise of FEV Tutors a few weeks ago was an extreme - and extremely public - example of the incongruity between pandemic-driven valuations, and a market reality that simply hasn’t lived up to growth expectations. Many others continue to fight this valuation hangover privately.
On the brighter side, the market for mature education companies remains robust. Private Equity funds committed ~$30B to the sector across 25 buyout deals over the course of 2024, including $14.5B for Nord Anglia Education - the largest private equity transaction ever in the education industry. In the public markets, Kaplan and Bright Horizons grew roughly in line with the S&P 500 while Stride substantially outperformed it.
We also have an idea of where the next wave of innovation will come from - AI. Day-to-day usage remains low for most people, especially teachers, but hardly a day goes by without a major announcement in the field. Of the 150 early-stage education venture rounds (where < $20M of capital was committed) this year, 62% mentioned AI in their funding announcements. (A stat gleaned by an app Replit’s AI chatbot built for me while I sat on the Peloton.) Most of these startups will not pan out, but a shift in rhetoric this dramatic usually means something.
All of which is to say that 2025 looks to be a year of…mostly waiting patiently. I expect it will take another 6-12 months for growth-stage companies (Series A to pre-IPO) to finish resetting investor expectations around more measured growth and, in turn, lowered valuations. It will also take at least 6-12 more months for us to see significant AI use cases beyond question-answering and language practice, building on investment seeds sown over the past few years.
With that as a framework, let's dig in on the data that informs my view of the market.
For the past 3 years, I have tracked publicly announced financial transactions in the education sector, adding a custom taxonomy to each deal to help me understand the business side of education in a more quantitative way.
This exercise is not without subjectivity. Is the company behind a video game that received FDA approval to treat ADHD an education company? What about the company that is developing a chatbot to cure adult loneliness? There are no simple answers to these questions, and both the companies and investors involved in the education sector continue to grow more complex and sophisticated in their operations.
To keep tracking simple (albeit conservative relative to other resources), I use the following criteria to populate the deal database:
Click the link below for the underlying dataset, which you can explore on your own. Please note that this is a live resource, with deals - both new and historic - being added to it on a daily basis. Please also feel free to send me a note with questions/comments.
2024 By the Numbers
领英推荐
In sum, 2024 continued a run of tough years for the education sector. Objectively, there are a disproportionate number of companies and individuals who continue to pay for COVID’s market exuberance. But! There was some good news too - 2024 also included the largest education transaction ever. And there were hundreds of education companies in healthy enough positions to raise capital from institutional investors.
I don’t think we have reached the end of this market downcycle, but it does feel like the light at the end of the tunnel is growing brighter.
Deals
Whiteboard Advisors not only provides policy and market-related diligence and advisory services, we track every financial transaction that happens in education — and keep a record of all deals that are publicly announced.
The following transactions caught our eye over the past few weeks. If you have a deal to announce, or would like access to the full transactions database, please reach out.
Venture Funding
M&A
Buyouts
Other Financial Transactions
News of Note
I have amended some article headlines to more appropriately capture why I found them interesting.
Data
Whiteboard Advisors is the leading policy-related diligence partner for education investors, advising on most major private equity transactions in education over the past 15 years. Our specialty is translating complex policy dynamics into insights that inform decision-making. Reach out to learn more.
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2 周The research that went into this was really helpful. I loved how you even shared the spreadsheet, Matthew Tower!