Edition March 2024: Brazilian economic growth will continue to surprise in 2024?

Pretext

Who doesn't remember the last days of 2022, or the beginning of 2023? In the social media and some national press outlets, almost no hour went by without zero growth being predicted for Brazil at best. Most of the so-called business experts even painted a very dark picture and literally screamed recession. As I said, it was more in the social media and some press outlets. The culprit had already been identified: the new economy minister Fernando Haddad and the new president Lula. I can still vividly remember debates and bets in the relevant business communities, mind you, all honest professionals from the analysis sector, management consultancies and auditors, who placed bets on when the Vice President would take office in 2023.

Time jump - February 2024, exactly one year later

Just two headlines from the past few weeks:

IMF sees Brazil as resilient and raises GDP forecast for this year to 1.7 percent.

GDP growth for 2023 will be published in the coming days: probably close to 3.1%.

Is that a great miracle? Honestly not. Anyone who has known Brazil for decades knows that this country is always capable of extraordinary surprises - both positive and negative.

What is the IMF forecasting?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more optimistic about Brazil and has raised its forecast for the country's growth in 2024 to 1.7%, compared to the previous estimate of 1.5%. It should be noted here that at the end of 2023, the IMF forecast maximum growth of 1% for Brazil in 2024. The current government is assuming 2.5% for the current year.

The change in the scenario for the Brazilian economy is included in the update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO). Nevertheless, Brazil's GDP is expected to slow down compared to 2023, when it should have increased by 3% according to the Fund's own forecast.

However, one thing should be clear: GDP growth will most likely be lower in 2024, as local elections are due to be held throughout Brazil in Q3 2024 and the polarized camps will no doubt once again engage in a familiar duel. The upcoming presidential elections in the USA will also cast a shadow.

For 2025, the IMF anticipates slightly stronger growth of just 1.9%, unchanged from the estimates published in October 2023. But here too, the IMF report is not transparent as to what the scenario for this should look like.

However, the reports show that many economies remain very resilient, with growth in Brazil, India and the major economies of Southeast Asia likely to accelerate - at least according to the IMF.

I would assume that such a scenario is basically possible. But as I said, it depends on the outcome of the US elections and also, often underestimated, the outcome of the European Parliament elections. Should right-wing populists actually emerge victorious from the plebiscites, it will of course lead to a perspective that is not exactly business-friendly.

Outlook for Latin America

Despite the improvement, Brazil is expected to grow more slowly than Latin America in 2024, even if the organization's projections for the region are lowered again. The fund expects the Latin American economy to grow by 1.9% this year. For 2025, the fund expects growth of 2.5% for the continent.

Special effect Argentina - don't cry for me, Argentina! Not this again!

First things first: when it comes to Argentina, the IMF is certainly not a good sparing partner. If you look at the past decades, it is striking that the IMF has repeatedly fallen for the "metamorphic plans" of the respective Argentinian governments, or wanted to fall for them ... . Different in 2024? Possibly not.

According to the Fund, the revision of regional GDP is due to the expectation of another year (after almost seven decades in crisis and nine defaults ..., what difference does a year more or less make ...) of recession in Argentina, as a result of the country's "significant policy adjustment to restore macroeconomic stability", according to the IMF report. Do we really believe this? Or are we just playing on ideological academic bubbles here? But let's leave that aside. A lot more information, blogs and special edition newsletters will be published on the subject of Argentina in March 2024.

Under Javier Milei's government, the country is expected to shrink by 2.8% this year - by 2023, Argentina is expected to have shrunk by 1.1% according to the fund's forecasts. By 2025, however, the fund sees a recovery with growth of 5%. So, it really is turning into a "brave new parallel world" here.

And what is going on with Mexico?

The IMF has also improved its forecast for Mexico's economic output this year to 2.7%. The country is benefiting from increasing business with neighboring countries, particularly the United States, known as "nearshoring".

The improved forecasts for Brazil and Mexico largely reflect the carry-over effects of stronger-than-expected domestic demand and higher-than-expected growth in the economies of key trading partners in 2023. We could already clearly feel this with a longer project in the Mexican automotive supply industry in 2023.

We end up in Brazil again

GDP growth should therefore once again be higher than many expect, perhaps even 2.5%, even considering that agriculture will not perform as well in 2024.

The first reason I see for the better outlook in 2024 is the initial effect of the Ministry of Finance paying around USD 18 billion in court-ordered debt at the end of December, a large part of which related to cases in which the INSS was involved. In this situation, the previous government under Economy Minister Paulo Guedes declared a default to creditors in order to improve its own balance sheet.

What you can learn from Argentina ... !

Depending on the government's spending multiplier and the strategic investment decisions in the private sector, an increase of up to 0.5% of GDP could be expected. We have already seen this in the past.

In addition, we will certainly have a significant primary deficit in 2024. The Brazilian labor market has mostly always performed better than expected under the PT and former PSDB governments (with the exception of Dilma Roussef and Michel Temer), both in terms of the increase in the number of employees, which had reached 100 million by the end of 2023, and in terms of income growth. The improvement in labor productivity in all quarters of last year 2023 was also surprising. We could clearly observe this in all projects without exception.

We should probably assume that these trends will continue in the current year 2024.

The labor market reform has certainly made an important contribution. In addition, the use of digital platforms has significantly increased productivity in many small companies, especially among service providers. This has been evident for a long time. During the pandemic, we helped some small and medium-sized companies to develop new digital business models in project missions with iMB. All initiatives have developed very well. This group has received a boost from financial innovations such as PIX, digital settlement machines and digital banks, which enable efficient administration and significantly lower costs.

Summarizing all this, I would assume, based on regular meetings with an analysis sector of the largest Brazilian private bank and, above all, our own observations and discussions in our national project missions, that Brazil will only grow by 2.0% in 2024 if everything goes damn badly. I would put the maximum growth rate at 2.8%. A few days ago, the Brazilian central bank issued a small, unnoticed note. Once again, GDP growth for 2024 was adjusted upwards. After just 1.0% at the beginning of January 2024, now at 1.8% at the end of February.

Help from the flank of inflation

We also hope that the continuing fall in inflation and the reduction in household defaults will allow lending and consumption to expand. This can be observed in the first weeks of 2024.

The government's Desenrola 2 refinancing program, for example, has so far helped 12 million people and forgiven or extremely generously restructured USD 7 billion in debt.

I have been back in Brazil since December 2023, after a good five months on project missions in Europe. In many networking meetings with a wide variety of people and various trips to the south and south-east of the country, I have noticed that investment in the national infrastructure will be higher than under the last government until the end of 2022 and that the trade balance will continue to show very high positive balances. In 2024, all commercial banks expect at least USD 85 billion.

And finally: the champ of champs of Brazilian reform

After more than four decades of negotiations in Brazil's parliament and congress, one of the biggest reforms since the re-democratization of the Sugarloaf nation is finally underway. Although it will still take some time before the all-encompassing tax reform is fully implemented, in many cases I see that companies, our Brazilian mandates, are already redefining their value chains and investments, their logistics structure. This is an important step towards greater efficiency in the economy and will show the first tender shoots as early as 2024.

It should be assumed that the effect of this gigantic reform will be on a par with the introduction of the real and the reorganization of state finances.

We should be prepared for a very positive surprise in Brazil in the coming years. That would certainly be a very likely scenario.

All-time record investment in Brazilian automotive industry

Automotive Brazil

Brazil has an impressive installed production capacity for vehicles. The country could produce 4.5 million vehicles and 125,000 units of agricultural or road construction machinery annually. This robust capacity reflects Brazil's significant role in the global automotive industry. Despite challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the shortage of chips and an ongoing political crisis, Brazil remains a major player in both vehicle demand and production. ??????

There is a deep understanding between the country's car manufacturers and suppliers that the sector will experience the largest investment cycle in its history following the announcement of the new MOVER automotive regime at the end of 2023. According to industry sources, investments by car manufacturers and suppliers are expected to exceed USD 20 billion by 2028/2029. Incentives of USD 0.5 billion have been announced for 2024 alone.

Since the announcement of the MOVER program, Volkswagen has increased its investment plan by USD 1.8 billion to USD 3.2 billion by 2028, and GM has announced investments of USD 1.4 billion for the period 2024 to 2028. In the coming weeks, new investments are also expected from Stellantis, which includes brands such as Fiat, Jeep, RAM, Peugeot and Citro?n.

A few days ago, the Korean company Hyundai also announced its investment plan for Brazil. At least USD 1.1 billion is to be invested in Brazil over the coming decades. The investments are only to flow into technology development for green hydrogen, hybrid drive technologies and e-mobility. The investment plan was presented to the current Brazilian government in February 2024. Global CEO Euisun Chung emphasized that the company will also work with the Brazilian government in the areas of energy transformation and education. The Korean company will also invest in public healthcare systems and reforestation.

The reasons cited for the new investment cycle are the reduction in interest rates (current SELIC key rate at 11.25%), the passing of Brazil's most powerful tax reform in more than four decades and the lower volatility of the exchange rate following a solid economic reorientation by the new government with Minister Fernando Haddad, as well as the pent-up demand for private and commercial investment. There is no doubt that national production will continue to boom.

Mexico & USA - a great success story of Near Shoring and Friendly Shoring - Mexico surpassed China

Pretext

Import volume from Mexico to the USA has surpassed that from China for the first time since 2003. In 2023, the value of goods imported by the United States from Mexico rose nearly 5%, reaching over US$ 475 billion. Meanwhile, the value of Chinese imports tumbled by 20%, amounting to US$ 427 billion.

This shift in trend comes amid heightened economic tensions between the US and China, prompting US companies to diversify their supply chains and production capabilities away from China and into other countries. Even tech giant Apple is starting to diversify its supply chain beyond China. Additionally, American car companies have increasingly shifted production to Mexico over the past decade, further boosting Mexico's share of US imports. ??????

What is our turn on that?

In the first quarter of 2023, we were involved in a project mission in Mexico for one of our long-standing clients. Our client is a European system supplier for the automotive industry; we had already carried out various project missions for this client in Brazil and Argentina over the past few years.

In this project in Q1 2023, we were integrated into a larger context. The overall project focused on significantly expanding the supply chains in the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) economic area and integrally developing them in the direction of a genuine near shoring and friendly shoring business model. Our contribution to the project was process mining with selected strategically important suppliers using a newly developed generative AI tool. We as iMB had already accumulated profound knowledge in the use of GenAI in the B2B environment in various other projects.

A couple of years ago, I managed the Latin American continent for a European machine and plant manufacturer in the packaging industry from the office in Mexico City. In the years 1997-2010, I was regularly in Mexico, both professionally and privately, and came to love the country and its diverse culture, from the US border to the southern border of Central America.

A few years ago, we carried out a project with iMB for a Brazilian manufacturer of audio equipment, especially for professional applications. We developed a feasibility study for a local production either in USA or Mexico. In the second step, we implemented CKD manufacturing in Mexico for our client.

Portfolio of Goods

In 2023, the United States imported a variety of goods from Mexico, making it the second-largest supplier of imported products to the US. Here are the key categories of imports from Mexico:

Vehicles and Parts: Cars and car parts accounted for more than one-quarter of all goods coming into the US from Mexico. Interestingly, most of these cars and car parts are made by American automakers but manufactured in Mexico, intended for the US market.

Electrical Equipment and Components: The US imported over US$ 30 billion worth of electrical components from Mexico. These include items like insulated wire, switches, electric motor parts, printed circuits, and television, radio, and radar parts. Many of these components find their way into electrical equipment assembled in the US. Additionally, Mexico exported US$ 38 billion in computer equipment and US$ 11 billion in communications equipment to the US.

Oil and Gas: Despite being one of the largest crude oil producers globally, the US still imports oil and gas from Mexico. In 2022/23, the US imported US$ 21 billion worth of oil and gas from its southern neighbour.

Audio and Video Equipment: Mexico exported US$ 15 billion worth of video and audio equipment to the US. This category includes stereos, phones, broadcasting equipment, amplifiers, and more.

Beverages: Alcoholic drinks, soft drinks, and water accounted for US$ 12 billion in imports from Mexico. Popular Mexican spirits like Tequila and Mezcal, as well as beers like Corona, contribute to this category.

Optical and Medical Equipment: While not as large as the other categories, Mexico also exports optical and medical equipment to the US.

Household Appliances and Machines: Various household appliances and machines are part of the import mix from Mexico.

These imports play a significant role in the economic relationship between the US and Mexico, benefiting both countries. It's fascinating to see how trade dynamics continue to evolved since than. ????????????

There are people who want to build a wall ... .

In 2022, the United States and Mexico celebrated 200 years of diplomatic relations. Due to shared geography, history, and deep cultural ties, Mexico remains one of the United States’ closest and most valued partners. The two countries share a 2,000-mile border with 47 active land ports of entry. This bilateral relationship directly impacts the lives and livelihoods of millions of Americans, spanning areas such as trade, economic development, education exchange, citizen security, drug control, migration, human trafficking, entrepreneurship, innovation, environmental protection, climate change, and public health.

Let's dive deeper on the current state of US-Mexico relations!

Trade and Economic Ties

Mexico became the top U.S. trading partner in early 2023, with bilateral trade totalizing US$ 263 billion in the first four months of that year. In 2022, U.S. goods and services trade with Mexico reached US$ 863 billion, making Mexico the second-largest trading partner for the US. U.S. exports to Mexico accounted for 13% of total U.S. exports and 43% of Mexican imports. These exports supported an estimated 1.1 million jobs in the US. Mexico remained the second-largest source of foreign crude oil to the United States, and it was also the top destination for U.S. petroleum product exports and natural gas.

United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)

The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA as the free trade agreement for North America, entered into force on July 1, 2020. The USMCA aims to support mutually beneficial trade, freer markets, fairer trade practices, and robust economic growth in North America. It addresses job opportunities, worker protections, forced labor prevention, agricultural trade, investments, intellectual property rights, environmental standards, and digital trade protections.

People-to-People Ties

The relationship extends beyond official diplomacy to encompass extensive commercial, cultural, and educational exchange. Hundreds of thousands of people legally cross the border each day. Approximately 1.6 million U.S. citizens live in Mexico, and Mexico is the top foreign destination for U.S. travelers.

Challenges and Opportunities

The dynamics of COVID-19 have partially closed the border between the two countries, affecting trade and economic interactions. Both nations continue to address issues related to security, migration, and environmental protection. Despite challenges, the longstanding partnership between the US and Mexico remains vital for regional stability and prosperity.

In summary, the US-Mexico relationship is multifaceted, with shared interests and challenges. It reflects a rich history and ongoing cooperation across various domains.I don't think the idea of building a wall is really the smartest idea. ??????????

Despite some persistent myths about Mexico, the U.S. and Mexican lifestyles and cultures are more similar than you may think. It's go on a deep dive!

The Cultural Figure of the Cowboy (Charro)

Both countries have a long-standing ideal of the cowboy, known as charro in Spanish. This romanticized image portrays a tough, hard-working, lasso-wielding farmer and has persisted in our collective imaginations in both nations.

Love of Sports

Both the U.S. and Mexico are huge fans of sports. While American football dominates in the U.S., Mexico is absolutely crazy about fútbol (soccer). Despite the different names, both sports evoke passion and excitement in their respective cultures. The high level of investment in US soccer has since brought an integrated league between the USA and Mexico to life. The matches can be subscribed to live stream via Apple TV+ .

Food and Drink

Delicious Mexican cuisine is renowned worldwide, and it's one of the things Mexico is best-known for. Interestingly, the majority of Americans also enjoy tacos, burritos, enchiladas, quesadillas, and other Mexican dishes. Additionally, both nations share a love for good beer, which is the most popular alcoholic beverage in both countries.

So, whether it's the spirit of the cowboy, the thrill of sports, or the joy of savoring Mexican flavors, there's more connecting these two cultures than meets the eye! ???????

Hispanic culture has significantly enriched North American culture, with Mexican influence playing a prominent role. Let's explore how this dynamic has unfolded:

Latino vs. Hispanic

The terms Latino and Hispanic are often used interchangeably, but they have distinct meanings. Latino/a refers to people who are descendants of Latin Americans, encompassing those who speak Romance languages derived from Latin (such as Spanish, Portuguese, and French). Hispanics specifically include those who speak Spanish or are descendants of Spanish speakers, including Spain. While a Mexican is both Hispanic and Latino, Brazilians are Latino but not Hispanic (due to speaking Portuguese), and Spaniards are Hispanic but not Latino. In a broader context, there is very often, especially in Europe, a great confusion between the meaning of the words Latin America and South America. While Latin America encompasses the entire cultural area of the Romance languages, originating from Latin, and thus describes a cultural area, the word South America only refers to the geographical classification. Mexico is geographically part of North America, while South America begins from Colombia southwards.

Hispanic Influence on American Culture

The size of the Latino population in the US is expanding rapidly. In 2012, 1 out of 6 people in America were Latino, and projections indicate they will be 1 in every 3 by 2050. Geographic proximity plays a significant role. The US shares a border with Mexico, fostering the exchange of products, ideas, media, and cultural traits. Adaptation, adoption, and borrowing of cultural characteristics occur on both sides of the border.

Discrimination and Opportunities

While 55% of Latinos believe this minority faces discrimination often, only 15% of non-Hispanics share that perception. Despite this, both populations recognize that opportunities are not yet fully equitable.

Changing Landscape

Clothing, music, architecture, literature, language, and food in the US have all been influenced by the growing Latin and Mexican American populations.

Hispanic contributions extend to various domains:

• Music: Latin rhythms, salsa, reggaeton, and mariachi music have left their mark.
• Food: Tacos, burritos, and other Mexican dishes are beloved by Americans.
• Fashion: Vibrant colors, embroidery, and traditional attire influence American fashion trends.
• Politics: Hispanic representation is increasing, impacting policies and political discourse.
• Language: Spanish words and phrases have woven into everyday American speech; it's called Spanglish.
• Art and Literature: Mexican artists and writers contribute to the cultural landscape.
• Education and Economy: Hispanics are making strides in education and economic mobility.

Future Outlook

More than 55 million people in the US - almost one-fifth of the population - are Hispanic, with two-thirds of them of Mexican origin. Latinos are reaching new heights in education, making significant economic gains, and reshaping the political landscape.

In summary, Mexican culture's influence on American culture is profound, transcendent, and permanent, reflecting a rich tapestry of shared experiences and traditions. It's the economy, stupid! ????????????

Personal note

If you have business activities in Mexico or a focus on the country and are planning a business development project - let's talk without obligation. I am 100% internationally mobile and know Mexico very well.

CONTACT

mail to: [email protected]

Mobile: +55 11 9 9103 91 49

Startup Brazil

Startups attract capital again, but 2024 should be another difficult year

Investments by venture capital funds, which buy stakes in companies, resumed in January in relation to startups. Among the sectors that appeared were fintechs and fast deliveries, raising USD 190 million. Compared to the end of 2023, the volume grew by 47%, compared to an already weak period between 2021 and 2022, when investments had already fallen by more than 50%. For managers of incubator centers in S?o Paulo, 2024 should still be a difficult and challenging year for technology companies wishing to raise funds. iMB has carried out several projects with start-up companies in Brazil and acts as seed investor in two startups.

Oil & Gas Brazil

3rd largest oil & gas operator emerging on the horizon

Expected since 2023, the possible merger between independent oil companies PetroReconca and 3R Petroleum in onshore exploration would create the third largest oil operator in the country, with production of more than 8,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), behind only Petrobras and Prio in its own operations. Reduced spending on personnel and infrastructure, as well as a more balanced common balance sheet, with room for new consolidations, are the arguments that excite the parties behind the scenes. Between 2011 and 2017, iMB carried out projects mainly in the oil and gas sector. During this time, iMB's office was located in the city of Rio de Janeiro, which has the highest concentration of the oil and gas industry. iMB maintains contact with both companies.

GenAI hits independent professionals in Latin America

Doom days due to GenAI?

According to a survey by MichaelPage Interim Brazil, 77% of registered temporary and independent professionals assume that their work will be massively or even completely replaced by generative AI (GenAI). It is interesting to note that the majority of the professionals registered with Page Interim are active in the areas of accounting, finance, human resources, auditing and auditing. The same survey was also conducted in Panama (70%), Mexico (68%), Peru (66%), Colombia (65%), Chile (63%) and Argentina (63%). The database of registered professionals is very similar in all Latin American countries. Unemployment, privacy and data security were cited as the main threats to their own activities in the above-mentioned areas. Only in Argentina was ethics named as the biggest problem. A good 62% see significant benefits from the use of GenAI by their customers. Around 33% see the use of GenAI as the main factor in the industrial revolution of the coming years. 3% consider the hype surrounding GenAI to be completely exaggerated and see no need for further training. A total of almost

5,400 professionals took part in the survey.

According to the ICI indicator of the Brazilian Economic Institute of the Funda??o Getulio Vargas, confidence in the Brazilian economy increased again by 1.8 points to 97.4 points in January 2024. This is the best result since August 2022, when the value was exactly 100 points. 80% of all industrial sectors have a positive perception of the economic environment. The confidence index in the manufacturing sector is developing particularly well and has now reached 99.3 points. At 96.5 points, the perception of the business outlook for the next six months has also reached a new record since 2020. Industrial capacity utilization currently stands at 81%.

The Brazilian coffee production value chain is by far the most advanced in terms of adapting and implementing the environmental regulations of the European Union. The most problematic sector at present is cattle farming.

The confidence index of the Brazilian retail sector rose by +1.8% from 12/2023 to 01/2024 and now stands at 108 points. In the same period from 12/2022 to 01/2023, the index fell by 5.2% and stood at just 90.5 points. The current value at the start of 2024 is the highest value since 2022.

The turnover of food service franchise chains in Brazil grew by 10.3% in the comparative period 12/2022 to 12/2023. The growth of points of sale in shopping centers grew by 7.9%, while growth in street outlets grew by 11.4%.

Almost half of all Brazilian breweries have launched projects to expand their national supplier base. As many as 5% are expanding their own value chain on their own initiative.

Brazil's 5-year credit default swap (CDS) risk index reached its lowest level since Q3 2019 at the beginning of February 2024. The index has risen by +35% since the new government took office in January 2023, reflecting the upgrade of Brazil's investment rate. The solid development of the trade balance is also a solid factor.

As a result of corporate moves to close capital, transfer listings abroad or M&A projects, the number of companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange B3 (ex-BOVESPA) is falling. In 2021, 463 companies were still listed on the B3; at the end of 2023, there were 436 national companies.Culture

In the first two months of 2024, iMB recorded the highest level of inquiry activity for many years. A total of 36 offers (43%) were sent to Brazilian companies, followed by 12 offers (17%) to North American clients and 10 offers (15%) to German-speaking companies. The remaining 25% of inquiries were sent to companies in Spain, Chile, the UK, India and France. Never before has the activity of Brazilian companies been so high at the beginning of a new year. It is also pleasing to see German-speaking companies in the top 3 for the first time since 2014/15. It is noticeable that the focus of the project missions is shifting towards business development coupled with a transformational character. The demand for user-related expertise in generative AI is constantly increasing.

In February 2024, iMB published a case study blog on the topic of a family business in the automotive supply industry entitled "What is the risk of driving a car without a fuel gauge?". If you haven't read the blog yet, here is the direct link to iMB's website:

https://www.imb.solutions/blog/what-is-the-risk-of-driving-a-car-without-a-fuel-gauge

In February 2024, the newsletter called GreyRhino newsletter was finally launched on LinkedIn. Here is the direct link and don't forget to hit the subscribe button!

https://www.dhirubhai.net/newsletters/greyrhino-newsletter-6901545392903970816

On 29 December 2023, the team from the startup iMBdigital.Gallery_ , in which I am still personally involved as a seed investor and advisory curator in 2024, organized an Urban Photo Night Walk in the Japanese district of Liberdade in S?o Paulo. Once again, a wide variety of creative techniques were tested and tools used. For example, the use of black mist filters to achieve cinematographic effects. The photo walks serve to better explore the metropolis and create archives for later NFT collections. A total of eight people took part in the Night Walk, including three clients from iMBSolutions. If you are ever in the city, don't hesitate to contact me directly. We can certainly organize a great photo walk for you at short notice. It doesn't matter what equipment you use - from a phone to a full-frame camera. Get in touch!

UnitedInterim - seit 2017 - The Place to be in Interim Management

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