Ecuador’s Diplomatic Crisis with Mexico: A Calculated Scenario?

Latin American countries have widely condemned Ecuador’s unprecedented and unexpected police raid on Mexico’s embassy in Quito. The two countries have severed diplomatic relations, and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, Netherlands has now started hearings on the incident.

In the aftermath of the raid, statements from Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa have hinted at the possibility that he previously calculated the risks. These include potential impacts on foreign commerce, the outcome of the ongoing ICJ hearings, and his country’s standing as a United Nations (UN) General Assembly member.

The Incident: Ecuadorian police break into Mexican embassy?

On the night of 4 April 2024, SWAT teams from Ecuador’s National Police force broke into Mexico’s embassy in Quito. They forcibly apprehended Ecuador’s former vice president Jorge Glas, whom Mexico had just granted political asylum to on the very same day. Glas had been staying at the embassy as a diplomatic “guest” since December 2023.

According to diplomatic staff and CCTV footage, police agents armed with assault rifles in full tactical gear climbed over the wall of the diplomatic residence and subdued private security personnel to forcibly arrest Glas. Speaking from a high-security Ecuadorian prison, Glas said he initially tried to resist the arrest and that police seriously beat him.

The police also physically subdued the Mexican official in charge of the embassy, Roberto Canseco. He had been appointed to lead the diplomatic mission after the Ecuadorian government declared Mexican Ambassador Raquel Serur persona non grata on 4 April 2024.

After beating and handcuffing Glas, Ecuadorian police hoisted him aboard one of their armored vehicles. They then left Canseco shocked and bruised on the sidewalk, driving off past befuddled onlookers and media correspondents.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador publicly acknowledged the incident hours later during his morning press conference, but at first did not give exact details about how he would proceed. “We cannot be quiet,” López Obrador said. “It would be spineless of us to stay quiet and not inform the Mexican people before such an abuse.”

The Preamble: Tensions reach a tipping point?

The Mexican embassy raid was the climax of an escalating exchange between newly elected Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa and his counterpart López Obrador, unfolding several months after Glas first arrived as an embassy “guest” following years of facing several criminal trials back at home.

Glas was sentenced to eight years in prison for bribery charges in 2017, the BBC noted, but was released in 2022 after winning an appeal. But an Ecuadorian court arraigned him again in late 2023, this time for allegedly embezzling disaster funds. He sought refuge in the Mexican embassy before the court could sentence him.

Glas’ stay considerably complicated both countries’ diplomatic relations. In January 2024, Ecuador warned that it would not extend Glass safe passage to leave the country. Then, in March 2024, Mexico’s government denied Ecuador’s formal request to deliver Glas to the authorities in his home country.

The countries’ relationship took a turn for the worse on 3 April 2024, when López Obrador implied during his daily press conference that the August 2023 murder of Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio indirectly benefited Noboa’s November win. A criminal group was allegedly responsible for the murder.?

The comments immediately prompted outrage from not only Noboa, but Villavicencio’s daughter Amanda. She demanded López Obrador to stop speaking about her father, Infobae reported.

Noboa officially declared former ambassador Serur persona non grata on 4 April 2024, and the next day López Obrador announced that the Mexican government had granted Glas political asylum. The raid followed hours after this announcement.

The Aftermath: Noboa plays it cool, despite potential consequences?

On 6 April 2024, the Mexican government announced it would sever diplomatic relations with Ecuador. “It is a flagrant violation of international law and Mexican sovereignty,” López Obrador stated.

As a result, Ecuador has withdrawn and repatriated its embassy staff in Mexico City, Expansión reported. Ecuador’s two consulates in Mexico’s capital and Monterrey remain open.

Mexican citizens are not required to have visas to enter Ecuador. But on 8 April 2024, El Universo reported that Ecuadorian citizens were having trouble with visa services due to the embassy’s closure.?

On 30 April 2024, Mexico presented its case as planned before the ICJ in The Hague after instituting proceedings against Ecuador on 11 April 2024.

Mexico’s representative stated during this first hearing that “there is no valid justification” for the incursion, “nor for the harassment that took place in the following days.”

The next day, Ecuador’s representative presented his country's case before the court. He stated that Mexico had engaged in a “flagrant intrusion” of Ecuador's internal affairs by receiving Glas at its embassy.

López Obrador also urged the UN to take action during a 16 April 2024 press conference. “If the United Nations does not act [against Ecuador] it will stand like a flower vase — just as an ornament,” he said.

Neither government has implemented any official measures to ban or restrict private commerce between the two countries. However, López Obrador called off an intended free trade agreement with Ecuador in November 2023 for entirely different reasons before diplomatic tensions started brewing. Negotiations crumbled over plans to include merchandise such as tuna and shrimp in the deal, which could have affected Mexican producers.?

Can Ecuador Manage the Potential Fallout?

Unlike his Mexican counterpart, Noboa seems to be relatively lighthearted about the issue based on his statements. In an interview with the Australian news outlet SBS on 15 April 2024, Noboa stated: “I will invite President Obrador to have a ceviche, we can probably have some tacos together, and we can talk.”?

When asked if he had any regrets about ordering the raid, he was clear: “Zero.”?

Regarding Ecuador’s legal stance on the incident, Noboa said that the Caracas Convention treaty states that no nation can give political asylum to someone who has a sentence, and doing so would raise questions about sovereignty.

“We had to make the decision. There was also a plan to escape that we were actually aware of,” Noboa told SBS.

Noboa′s self-assured statements indicate that he and his cabinet may be prepared to — or at least willing to — weather any international diplomatic turbulence caused by the incursion.?

While the Mexican government has requested that Ecuador be separated from the UN as long as it fails to issue a public apology, its Secretary General António Guterres has made it clear that such a matter depends on the rest of the member states. He also called for both countries to resolve tensions through dialogue.

Ecuador has been suspended as a voting member of the UN assembly since 2015, but for a different reason — it has not paid the assembly’s yearly dues since that year.

Commercial exchange between Mexico and Ecuador is not significant enough to be considered strategically important. According to Bank of Mexico figures, exports from Mexico to Ecuador in 2023 reached USD595 million, while Ecuadorian exports to Mexico amounted to USD228 million.

While all major Latin American countries (except El Salvador) have condemned the incursion, no country has announced any specific commercial sanctions against Ecuador.?

In the meantime, the ICJ case unfolding at The Hague could go on for more than a year. López Obrador’s presidential term will conclude on October 1, and he will not be reelected.

Considering the nature of Noboa’s comments despite the political seriousness of the diplomatic incident, it appears the president took a calculated risk in raiding the embassy and is prepared to deal with the possible consequences.?

After all, tension with Mexico is not Noboa’s biggest concern. The president appears to be more focused on the wave of violence that has gripped the country in recent months, prompting him to declare a new 60-day emergency rule (estado de excepción) on 1 May for five of the country’s 24 provinces.?

While an ICJ case is expected to last several months and a drop in commercial trade between the two countries is possible, none of the consequences seem catastrophic for Noboa’s administration or the Ecuadorian economy.

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