Ecuador: President Noboa continues to lead first round polling, will not avoid runoff

• Pres Noboa holds a one-digit lead over Gonzalez
• We see Noboa as the clear favorite, with a program of continuity, but he will not avoid a runoff

National Democratic Action (ADN) presidential candidate Daniel Noboa is set to win the first round of the presidential election to be held on Feb 9, but without securing the necessary votes to win outright, according to all available polls. All polls indicate that Noboa will not reach the required 40% of the total votes with a 10pps margin over the second-place candidate, a requisite to avoid a runoff in April. This is in part the result of a pulverized field, with 16 presidential candidates running.

The elections will take place in a challenging political environment. Pres Noboa should have taken an unpaid leave period to conduct his campaign activities. Still, he has served as president on some days while formally working on his presidential campaign on others. The government has insisted that Noboa is not formally running for reelection since he is an interim president. Noboa has issued three decrees since the start of the campaigns on Jan 5. He has temporarily handed over power to Cynthia Gillibert. It's clear that the president dismissed the political cost that this strategy may bring about, and the polls confirmed this to be a sound strategy. Still, Noboa's decision opened the door to another form of political-legal litigation that clouds the race a bit. This strategy is linked to the president's poor relationship with VP Verónica Abad. Pres Noboa ordered on Dec 23 for VP Verónica Abad to be temporarily transferred to Turkey as an advisor of his government. Still, she has been absent from her post in Turkey. Abad has been seeking to assume the presidency while Pres Noboa campaigns, indeed the National Assembly said recently it will only recognize Abad as acting president while Noboa is on leave to campaign.

Opinion polls

Daniel Noboa is currently leading the polls with an average voting intention of 33.5%, followed by Luisa González with an average of 27.3%. Leonidas Iza holds the third position with 2.1%. Clearly, all polls show this is a two horses race, with Pres Noboa holding a constant but modest advantage vs the leader of Correaism.

Notably, polls show the "blank vote" option is at 8.4%, while the number of undecided voters sit at 16.0%. This suggests there is certainly room for a surprise on election day, in our view. However, polls suggest Noboa's support increased a bit after the presidential debate held on Jan 19, with the president at a better political moment than his main adversary, telling us that a surprise is unlikely.

At the moment, only the Comunicaliza pollster has shown a runoff scenario. The voting intention is led by Noboa, with 40.5% against Luisa González with 35.2%. Even if the lead is relatively modest, it is worth noting that in Comunicaliza polls, Noboa's support has grown while Gonzalez's has declined. Still, the percentage of undecided voters stands in the double digits, leaving the possibility of last-day changes and vanishing the possibilities of Noboa winning the first round.

A Noboa victory: continuity of his political project

We expect Pres Noboa to win despite the current challenges he is facing. In 2023, he portrayed himself as an outsider, while voters are easy to link Luisa González to the political burden of Correaism, with ex-President Rafael Correa unable to visit the country, wanted in the investigation of the kidnapping of a political opponent, and for taking bribes. Ecuadorians were looking for a president who fought against corruption and crime, mainly caused by drug cartels. Some believe that Noboa has given a strong message to Ecuador. He declared an internal armed conflict and has renewed a state of emergency several times. On the other hand, others are concerned about allegations of human rights violations under this scheme, including Amnesty International.

President Noboa is also facing the political costs of the energy crisis. In 2024, Ecuador experienced a severe energy crisis due to a historic drought, which led to scheduled blackouts and energy rationing nationwide at different times of the year. In November, blackouts lasted up to fourteen hours a day, while the industrial sector was without electricity for up to five days. Although the scheduled blackouts ended in December as rain returned, the government said that full reservoirs guarantee three months of operation. The National Electricity Operator (Cenace) has warned that Ecuador will have to import electricity from Colombia and Peru from March 2025 to meet the demand.

If elected, Pres Noboa will continue to face difficulties in managing a complex economic, fiscal, and security scene. The energy crisis, fading but not over, is pushing the economy into a contraction. Agreements signed with the IMF have helped to provide liquidity and some stabilization of public finances, in a keep step for long-term fiscal consolidation. A more sustained fiscal improvement may come if Pres Noboa gains a stronger mandate.

A González victory: Nostalgia of Correaism

Luisa González represents the nostalgia of Correaism She has tried to put ex-Pres Correa out of her campaign, trying to convince undecided voters that she will govern independently. González's voting intention feeds on those who have historically backed Correaism and from those disappointed by the Noboa administration, upset by slow progress in reducing insecurity and the energy crisis.

González has been cautious regarding economic issues. González proposed to improve economic activity through public investment in infrastructure projects, noting that private companies would be able to invest in state-owned firms, as an effort to gain support from center-right voters. If she wins, we expect the market to react negatively as it will mean the return of Correaism, moving away from the market strategies of the Noboa administration. Yet, González would probably have to build alliances in Congress to govern, pushing her to the center, in our view.