Ecuador: Luisa Gonzalez to win first round of presidential election, runoff to be needed

• Presidential election comes amidst heightened tension following the murder of candidate Villavicencio and rising violence
• Public security to become the focus for the new president
• Uncertainty is high as polls indicate citizens are unfamiliar with the candidates
• Leftist Luisa Gonzalez, from the Correaist party, leads the first-round voting intentions but falls short of votes to secure an outright victory
• Runoff scenario is hard to predict due to the lack of polls
• Next president to remain in office for only 1 year, completing the current term

Citizen Revolution (RC) presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez is set to win. the first round of the presidential election to be held Sun. but without securing the necessary votes to win outright, according to all available polls. All polls indicate that she will not reach the required 40% of the total votes with a 10-pp margin over the second-place candidate, a requisite to avoid a runoff in October. Yet, the absence of recent credible polling data for a potential runoff scenario complicates the ability to predict the final outcome. Adding to the complexity, the recent murder of Fernando Villavicencio, a well-known leader against former Rafael Correa's government and a symbol of anti-corruption efforts, has introduced an element of uncertainty that could significantly influence voter sentiment. His party, Build Movement, appointed his friend and journalist Christian Zurita to replace him in the upcoming elections. However, there is no confirmation from the National Electoral Council, leading to uncertainty about whether he will be allowed to participate. If he does, we anticipate that he will play a pivotal role in the runoff amid the upheaval in the nation.

This election could be characterized as the most complex in recent history. According to polls, citizens seem unfamiliar with several candidates, partly due to the short duration of these campaigns, which were called after President Guillermo Lasso dissolved Congress. Meanwhile, violence is on the rise across the country, with political leaders becoming targets in the days leading up to the election. Thus, Ecuadorians head to ballots amidst a tense mood after the murder, which deepened the worst crisis of public security in the country's history. Moreover, the only presidential debate held on Sun. was marked by candidate confrontations rather than a comprehensive discussion of their proposals.

The candidate elected will assume office in November and will serve only for 18 months to complete the interrupted term. The incoming president will face the challenge of not only dealing with an unprecedented wave of violence but also addressing an imminent "El Ni?o" weather phenomenon that is expected to hit the country's key sectors amid a fragile fiscal situation.

Overall, there is a sentiment of uncertainty and confusion ahead of the Sun. vote. There's a high expectation that Gonzalez will emerge victorious given her leading position in the polls and the strength of Correaism in the regional elections. Yet, her support falls short of guaranteeing a direct win. The potential runoff scenario introduces further complexity as we anticipate opposition forces aligning against Correaism and rallying around the legacy of Fernando Villavicencio.

OPINION POLLS

All pollsters put leftist Gonzalez heading the voting intentions, giving her a two-digit lead over Sonnenholzner and Villavicencio. However, the most recent Communicaliza poll, conducted on Aug 11 and 12, showed her popularity decreased by 6.1pps from the poll conducted between Aug 8 and Aug 9, following Villavicencio's murder. In either case, she doesn't secure the necessary votes to win outright.

Regarding the second place, it's interesting to note that according to the most recent Communicaliza poll, the former sniper Jan Topic has risen by 6pps from the previous survey, conducted less than a week before, this puts him second in the most recent poll. This follows the murder of candidate Villavicencio on Aug 9, which exacerbated the public insecurity crisis. This means that considering the first Comunicaliza poll, the former sniper rose 19.1pps, in a surprising rise to popularity amid a violence wave. However, the average of seven polls places former VP Otto Sonnenholzner at 11.1% of the voting intention, in the second place. According to this average, late candidate Fernando Villavicencio would be in third place, followed by Yaku Perez.

The number of blank and undecided votes is significantly high, reaching double digits in the averaged results of seven polls. This is unsurprising, given the unfamiliarity of the electorate with both the electoral process and the candidates.

In a runoff scenario, we expect the opposition to unify against Correaism. This anti-Correa sentiment became more pronounced following the murder of Villavicencio, who was a popular figure in opposing the former president. As there are no polls for runoffs, the outcome is hard to predict.

MAIN CANDIDATES

Luisa González/Andrés Arauz (Citizen Revolution Movement)

Luisa Gonzalez is a lawyer and former member of the National Assembly. She represents the left-wing Citizen Revolution movement, led by former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017), and stands as the favorite to win the first round of the election. She proposes a new coastal prison for public security and pledges to complete the controversial Pacific Refinery if elected. This project was deemed an "ineffective infrastructure" in a 2020 report by the General State Comptroller after it amassed an investment of USD 1.5bn and was not fulfilled. Gonzalez aims to tackle fuel subsidies and make fuel available at reduced costs. Furthermore, she envisions utilizing the proceeds from fuel sales to drive development initiatives, establish scholarships, and improve infrastructure.

Recently, she said she will use USD 2.5bn from international reserves to shore up the struggling economy if elected. She specified that some USD 500mn would go toward police arms and vehicles with equal amounts for health and education, small business loans, and infrastructure. Yet, she also noted the debt must be honored according to its maturity dates

Otto Sonnenholzner/?Erika Paredes (Alliance "Let's do it" SUMA, Avanza)

Former vice president in Lenin Moreno's term Sonneholzner is a familiar figure to voters. Sonneholzners is the candidate from the SUMA and Avanza parties. Crucially, he receives the support of the Democratic Left, a historical party in Ecuador. On the economic front, Sonneholzner proposes to protect and strengthen the dollarization, promote the reactivation of private investment, and promote employment and efficiency in tax management. He is promoting debt-for-development swaps, improving oil sector management, and fighting corruption. On public security, he has proposed restricting access to Ecuador for foreigners "with a judicial past".

Yaku Perez?Nory Pinela (Alliance "Of course we can" UP, PS, Democracy Yes)

Politician and human rights activist Pérez will run for president for a second time. In 2021, he came in third place with 19.4% of the votes. Perez, a leftist, promises a reorganization of the economy, security, and society. Yet, in these elections, Perez has moderated parts of his discourse, although he strongly opposes extractive activities and advocates environmental conservation. On public security crisis, he said this situation could be attenuated with the collection of tax debts from big business people in arrears. Yaku Perez pledged to the implementation of "permanent patrolling with armed and police forces"

Jan Topic?Diana Jácome (Alliance "Country without fear" - PSC, PSP, CD)

An economist, military trained, and former sniper in the French Army's Foreign Legion, Jan Topic commits to an "iron fist" to end the country's violence problems. Although he has no political experience, Topic has the backing of one of Ecuador's largest conservative groups, the Social Christian Party. He promises to enact the "Zero Tolerance Plan," reclaiming supervision over the nation's prisons and fortifying the capacities of law enforcement agencies.

On the economic side, Topic advocates opening markets, promoting trade agreements, and applying economic austerity. In the area of debt restructuring, Topic will seek to negotiate with international organizations to improve Ecuador's bargaining power and seek alternatives to address the fiscal deficit. Topic favored maintaining subsidies but targeting them to poor and strategic sectors such as transportation through technology.

Christian Zurita/?Andrea González(Build Movement)

The journalist who accompanied the late Fernando Villavicencio during his investigations into corruption was appointed by the Build Movement over the weekend to replace him in the presidential race. This announcement was made shortly before the presidential debate, from which he was unable to participate due to pending approval from the National Electoral Council (CNE). Alongside Villavicencio, he co-authored the book "Green Rice," a compilation of reports that unveiled the management of bribes by public officials and members of former President Rafael Correa's party, involving millions of dollars. The journalist played a significant role in Fernando Villavicencio's presidential campaign, actively endorsing his proposals, including establishing an anti-terrorist, anti-mafia plan to safeguard Ecuador. This plan envisions a well-equipped, technologically advanced, and well-regulated police force.

Pending the CNE's approval of Zurita's candidacy, we anticipate that he will emerge as a prominent contender, particularly in the midst of widespread national consternation and his status as the main opposition candidate against the Correaism.

Tackling crime and public insecurity will be a priority for the next administration

Ecuador, considered only a few years ago as one of the most peaceful countries in the region, is experiencing an unprecedented violence crisis. Crime rates are rising at an alarming pace, and if this trend continues, the projected homicide rate for 2023 could reach 40 homicides per 100,000 people, making Ecuador one of the most violent countries in the region. In addition, the internal power struggle within prisons has resulted in continuous riots leaving hundreds of deaths.

Only a few days before the elections, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was murdered, exacerbating the crisis. A journalist and vocal critic of former President Rafael Correa, Villavicencio drew attention to the infiltration of criminal gangs linked to drug trafficking cartels within the country.

All presidential hopefuls are aware that public security is the foremost concern for voters. Their proposed solutions encompass a range of measures, including augmenting resources for law enforcement agencies, implementing a comprehensive overhaul of the police force, enacting reforms within the judicial and penal systems, exerting tighter control over prison facilities, and combating the influence of transnational organized crime.

This public insecurity crisis has far-reaching economic repercussions. President Lasso's declarations of states of emergency underscore the severity of the situation, impacting both production and consumption as a response to the prevailing violence.

Agenda to be held back by a weak fiscal situation and adverse climatic conditions

The upcoming president will be stepping into a challenging environment, as external funding appears to not be an option with interest rates rising and a country risk index almost topping the 2,000pts benchmark, due to political uncertainty. Moreover, the incoming president won't have the autonomy to draft an entirely new General State Budget (PGE) but will be required to operate within the framework set for 2023, with spending at USD 31.5bn.

In addition, an impending weather phenomenon known as "El Ni?o" is predicted to impact vital sectors like fishing and flower cultivation, resulting in estimated losses of USD 4bn. Additionally, the outcome of the Yasuni referendum, aimed at halting oil exploration in a portion of the Amazon, holds significance as discontinuing exploitation could lead to an annual treasury loss of USD 1.2bn.

Lastly, the ongoing political uncertainty surrounding the 2025 elections and the establishment of a new National Assembly are also determinants for the country's governability scenario.

VOTING AND RESULTS

Voting will run from 7:00 to 17:00 local time on Sun., Aug 20. The CNE foresees that the first results of the presidential and legislative elections will begin to arrive a few hours after the closing of the polls. The CNE will seek, as in previous editions, to diversify the means by which citizens can consult the results, such as social media, television, and mobile apps.