Ecuador at a Crossroads: Security Reforms Amidst Growing Cartel Influence

In a referendum held on Sunday, Ecuadorians endorsed a comprehensive security reform package aimed at curbing organised crime within the country. The sweeping security reforms grant expanded powers to police and military forces, tighten gun control measures, and increase penalties for criminal offences. However, these reforms focus on addressing the symptoms of the problem and fail to tackle their causes. Concerningly, these measures risk being short-sighted and seem poised to exacerbate the issues they aim to resolve.

The Quadrupling of Ecuador’s Homicide Rate

Over the last decade, transnational crime groups have steadily increased their operations in Ecuador. Groups such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel have formed ties with local gangs to transit narcotics onward to the US and Europe. Crackdowns and assassinations have atomised the criminal landscape, heightening competition and violence (See Figure 1). The influx of firearms (see Figure 2) and training by Mexican cartels has empowered local gangs, leading to high-profile attacks and assassinations. This includes anti-corruption presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio and several mayors. In response to a state of emergency in January, gangs rose up, stormed the news studio in Guayaquil and set off IEDs across the country. The prosecutor investigating the storming of the studio was subsequently killed.

Sunday’s reforms (English translation) represent an attempt by President Noboa to quell the rising violence in the country.? The series of reforms encompass stricter gun control measures, heightened penalties for numerous crimes, and the expanded use of military resources to support police forces. Notably, however, these measures primarily address symptoms rather than the root socioeconomic causes of crime, risking only temporary relief and potentially leading to more violence as fundamental issues remain unaddressed. More effective measures would include employment and education initiatives alongside increased funding to the police (particularly training in investigations) and investment in the judiciary (particularly protection programmes and streamlining court processes via modernisation).

Organised Crime and Its Toll on National Security

The failure to address the multidimensional structural causes of organised crime means the operations of such groups are likely to continue over the medium term. Besides further violence and the threat of collateral damage, this entails a host of operational concerns to consider.

Further security measures: Insecurity has been a salient concern for the Ecuadorian electorate. Given the flaws of current measures coupled with the security-centred approach adopted by the government, further security measures are likely. These may range from the broadening of checkpoints near transport hubs to the re-implementation of curfews, both of which can severely impact travel and business operations. Unlike in El Salvador (which implemented a wholesale crackdown combining mass arrests and streamlined judicial hearings), the Ecuadorian judiciary has demonstrated the capability to protect the constitution and democracy, reinforced further by an opposition-controlled legislature. Further measures are therefore likely to yield some tactical gains, but the gangs are likely to have the capability to adapt, be resilient, and continue their operations.

Diplomatic isolation: Appearing to be tough on organised crime shapes electoral successes, incentivising risky behaviour. Earlier this month, Ecuadorian security forces raided the Mexican embassy in Quito and arrested the former vice president (Jorge Gals, who sought refuge in the embassy over possible embezzlement charges). Mexico subsequently called for the UN to expel Ecuador, and severed relations. Though expulsion is unlikely, the raid has upended regional relations. Mexico cancelled its negotiations for a free trade agreement and removed consular support from the country. Ecuador’s efforts to join the Pacific Alliance (a Latin American trade bloc, for which it is a candidate) are also likely to be disrupted following the raid, setting the country on the path of regional isolation. This increases vulnerabilities to supply chain bottlenecks and even the possibility of targeted sanctions on the government.

Operational disruption: The crackdown on gangs has increased threats to the country's energy infrastructure. The government last week imposed a 60-day state of emergency and deployed the military to energy sites over an ongoing energy crisis. This underscores the realistic possibility of gangs exploiting the crisis, using operational disruption as a bargaining chip against crackdowns. Although the deployments are an acknowledgement by the government of the threats, they are unlikely to be completely exhaustive. This means vulnerabilities at some installations are likely, leaving operational disruption a realistic possibility over the coming months.

Judicial interference: Lower-level courts have demonstrated vulnerabilities to corruption and coercion, which is unlikely to change amid persistent organised crime challenges. Organised crime groups have demonstrated the intent and capability to kill those seen to be negatively impacting their operations. Judges have accordingly been found to have facilitated the operations of crime groups. This leaves those implicated in domestic cases with organised crime vulnerable to judicial interference. The scale of the problem is such that it could take years before concerns are addressed.

Security advice:

• Consider impacts on trade routes and partnerships, particularly those with Mexico, which may be disrupted by local security issues or diplomatic tensions.
• Be aware that local judicial processes are vulnerable to interference that can impact legal outcomes and operational compliance.
• Implement enhanced security protocols for personnel and assets directly involved in operations against organised crime groups.
• Update risk assessments and contingency plans to reflect the dynamic nature of security threats, especially those posed by fragmented criminal groups and increased gang violence.
• Develop and drill clear emergency response strategies to react swiftly to security incidents, including public violence or targeted attacks on infrastructure.
• Increase investment in intelligence capabilities and surveillance technologies to better predict and monitor potential threats from organised crime.
• Assess exposure to possible curfews and restrictions to nighttime operations.
• Foster strong relationships with local law enforcement agencies to ensure timely information sharing and coordinated responses to crime threats.

by Gary Abbott , Risk Analyst, NGS.

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