ECOWAS can avert “disintegration”: here’s how

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On July 8, 2024, a BBC article featured the alarming headline: 'ECOWAS Risks Disintegration if Juntas Withdraw’. The juntas in question are the regimes of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger that came to power successively between August 2020 and July 2024. Despite five countries in West and Central Africa experiencing military coups recently, these three warrant separate consideration.

A Bridge Between North and Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are situated in the Sahel, a region that connects the coastal zone of West Africa with North Africa. It is a strategic area, characterized by numerous informal cross-border trade links, and centuries-old cultural exchanges between dozens of ethnic groups. The citizens of today’s Mali for example belong to approximately thirty different ethnic groups. Several of them extend into neighboring countries. Indeed, there are people of Soninké, Fulani, or Bambara origin not only in Mali, but in The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Senegal.

The Unity Connecting the Sahel States

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have been historically close both culturally and economically for several decades. In December 1970 already, following a recommendation of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and the United Nations Development Program for the collaborative management of their huge reserves in mining, water resources and agriculture, they decided to form a regional association named Autorité du Liptako-Gourma (Liptako-Gourma Authority). The Authority was a transnational entity covering 370,000 square kilometers, an area larger than Japan, Germany or Finland. In November 2011, the Authority's geographic scope and mandate were expanded to encompass the entire territory of the three states, approximately 2 781 200 square kilometers.

Coups d’état and turmoil in ECOWAS

On July 26, 2023 in Niamey, the capital of Niger, President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown by the military and put under house arrest. That was the fourth coup in the region after Mali in 2020, Guinea in 2021 and Burkina Faso in 2022. Two days later, the chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, convened a special meeting in Abuja (Nigeria) to assess the situation in Niger promising that “ECOWAS and the international community would do everything to defend democracy and ensure democratic governance continues to take firm root in the sub-region”.

The leaders who attended the July 30 meeting decided to impose severe sanctions aimed at restoring constitutional order and deterring would-be insurrectionists. ECOWAS even threatened military action if President Bazoum was not restored to his functions within one week. The sanctions included the closure of land and air borders with the Republic of Niger and the suspension of all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS Member States and Niger.

Swift reaction from Mali and Burkina Faso

Mali and Burkina Faso immediately came to the rescue of Niger. They created the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des états du Sahel, or AES) in September 2023. The conflict with ECOWAS worsened and reached its climax on January 28, 2024 when the three countries announced their intention to withdraw from the regional organization “with immediate effect”.

This sudden declaration was initially met with disbelief, followed by shock, and ultimately, panic, as the ECOWAS Commission realizing the gravity of the situation, backpedaled, lifting sanctions and sending emissaries to the secessionist states. On July 7 at its 65th ordinary session, the regional body designated the presidents of Senegal, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, and of Togo, Faure Gnassingbé, as ECOWAS facilitators in the organization’s engagements with the AES.

Notably, one day before that meeting, the members of the AES strengthened their political ties, officially becomint the Confederation of Sahel States (Confédération des états du Sahel - CES). Although they vowed that their decision to leave ECOWAS is final and irrevocable, the door remains open. Indeed, the Senegalese president has already visited Ouagadougou and Bamako in an unofficial peacebuilding mission. What could ECOWAS bring to the negotiating table to make the breakaway countries want to reconsider and engage in further negotiations?

A Path out of a Difficult Situation?

In seemingly unsolvable situations, making the other party an attractive offer can be an effective strategy setting the stage for a win-win scenario while building goodwill and trust. In their 1994 book, Negotiating Rationally, Max Bazerman and Margaret Neale advocate for understanding the other party's interests and making offers that create value for both sides.

In addition to the severe sanctions that started the crisis, the grievances that the CES has against the regional organization include, first, that ECOWAS failed to support its members vigorously enough in their fight against terrorism. ; second, that the organization is under the influence of foreign powers, especially France.

Presidents Faye and Gnassingbé may consider addressing those grievances by making daring and productive offers. Some could concern areas where ECOWAS is expected to provide answers, such as violent extremism and climate change. Other solutions should not only be forward-looking but unexpected. Below are two examples.

Diplomatic Recognition

One proposal might be to grant the CES recognition, pending the formation of a government for the confederation. This will serve two major objectives: first, to counter the argument that the very existence of the CES is a threat to ECOWAS; second, to defuse the tension and raise the likelihood of win-win outcomes.

It should be noted that between May 20 and June 3rd, Togo conducted joint military exercises with AES and Chad, without the ECOWAS Commission reacting.

In practice, the procedure could be lengthy. It would start with the two facilitators proposing and drafting a resolution calling all ECOWAS member states to officially recognize the Confederation of Sahel States. The region’s Council of Ministers will then examine the proposal and forward it to the Authority of Heads of State and Government for deliberation and approval.

Fighting Terrorism with Income-generating Programs

Another constructive proposal could leverage industrialization as a cornerstone to tackle poverty, violence, and unemployment. For instance, reviving the 2018 ECOWAS project for a regional automotive industry may be a game changer. Indeed the confederation could benefit from and play a key part in a vast industrial initiative generating thousands of skilled jobs, and a massive transfer of technology.

The lack of sustainable value chains in West Africa, especially in the manufacturing sector, is a serious obstruction to regional development. The ECOWAS facilitators could use this significant challenge to their advantage.

On the African continent, the three biggest players in the automotive industry are South Africa, Morocco, and Egypt. They are far ahead of West Africa, where Nigeria and Ghana are the biggest car manufacturers. Given the size of the ECOWAS bloc with a population exceeding 400 million, there is substantial room for growth, especially in the promotion of industry-specific skills, such as spare parts manufacturing, electrical and other technical skills.

Conclusion

As dramatic as it was, the sudden decision by the AES to withdraw from ECOWAS will most likely not lead to a lasting rift between the two parties, given the numerous social and economic ties between them.

Losing three members does not need to be a death sentence for the regional body either: it is a call for ECOWAS to address some of its deepest failures and start focusing on adding value and generating wealth through multiple cross-border projects.