The Economy is Not Well

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Below I've compiled the comprehensive and UPDATED cheat sheet of key stats, metrics, comparisons, country-specific financial issues, reports, anecdotes, and trends from financial advisors and trusted sources. This collection aims to provide a clear picture of what's truly happening in the economy.

So, whenever someone says: "BUT THE STOCK MARKET IS JUST AWESOME!", you can respond with any and all of these points.

The Big Picture

After the pandemic stimulus showered everyone with cash, we partied like rock stars, igniting a demand boom and overstuffing supply chains. But now the free-money buzz has worn off, and we're waking up with a massive economic hangover—warehouses packed to the brim, prices nosediving, and an economy stumbling as it sobers up from the stimulus high. Job-losses will follow.

Tracing Back to COVID-19

When the pandemic hit, government stimulus checks artificially inflated incomes by 20%, sparking a massive spending spree. Prices naturally rose as industries responded to booming revenue. But then, the government stopped the stimulus checks, demand faltered, and inflation surged as supply chains struggled to catch up.

Now, we're seeing the consequences:

• Retail warehouses are full of unsold goods.
• Demand for shipping has plummeted, causing freight rates to tumble.
• Oil prices are dropping as shipping companies struggle.
• Companies are laying off workers, and the idea of a "soft landing" is quickly fading away.

This deflationary trend isn't a relief—it's a warning sign of a much larger economic issue.

Anecdotes First!

Companies and Economic Trouble

Ally Financial

• Shares Plunged: Stock dropped up to 20% due to intensified credit challenges.
• CFO's Warning: Russ Hutchinson highlighted that borrowers are struggling with high inflation, rising cost of living, and weakening employment.
• Rising Delinquencies: There's a growing pool of borrowers in later-stage delinquency buckets.

Citigroup

• Credit Losses Rising: Consumers are shifting spending to essentials, leading to increased credit card losses.
• Payment Rates Falling: CFO Mark Mason noted that payment rates have started to "come down a bit," indicating financial strain among consumers.

Bank of America

• Warren Buffett's Stock Sales: Buffett continues to sell holdings in Bank of America, signaling a lack of confidence in the banking sector.
• CEO's Comment: Brian Moynihan noted the market is absorbing the stock, but the continuous sell-off raises concerns.

Salesforce

• Revenue Miss: The company's stock dropped 20% after reporting its first revenue miss since 2016.
• CEO's Insight: Marc Benioff attributed the slowdown to budget scrutiny and longer deal cycles among corporate customers, indicating a weakening investment climate.

Kohl's

• Stock Decline: Fell by 25% after reporting a sharp decline in sales.
• Consumer Sensitivity: Reduction in clearance sales led to decreased customer traffic, highlighting price sensitivity.
• CEO's Statement: Mentioned "uncertainty in the consumer environment," reflecting a weakening consumer economy.

Walmart

• ...FULL ARTICLE HERE

Conclusion

The signs are clear: beneath the surface, significant economic challenges are unfolding. From rising unemployment to corporate struggles and weakening consumer demand, the global economy is facing headwinds.

While stock markets might still show resilience, it's crucial to look beyond headline numbers and understand the deeper trends affecting the global economy. The idea of a "soft landing" is becoming increasingly unlikely. Being informed and prepared is more important than ever.