ECONOMY & TRADE

France’s presidential election is shaping up to be a referendum on the European Union. Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen won the first round of voting, and will face off in a second vote next month. The campaign is viewed by some investors as potentially more important for global trade and financial markets than even the U.K.’s Brexit vote or the election of President Donald Trump, writes the WSJ’s Riva Gold. Marine Le Pen has vowed to take France out of the euro, which would could force the disintegration of the common currency. Victory for an anti-EU candidate would lead companies, from insurers to banks to international corporations, to pull money out of France, analysts say. It would also further weaken support for the continent-spanning single market, which eases the flow of goods between countries and allows manufacturers to easily set up supply chains spanning multiple countries. Many of Ms. Le Pen’s supporters say that’s precisely why they are voting for her, blaming the EU for the loss of French factory jobs to countries like Poland, where labor costs are lower.