Economists in the News | My Middle East Week | Global Credit Outlook and Webinar | Questions That Matter 2024

Welcome to the latest edition of Essential Economics. Following the release of our refreshed macro outlooks last week, the team made a splash in the media. I appeared on Yahoo Finance, EMEA Chief Economist Sylvain Broyer on Sky News, Asia Pacific Chief Economist Louis Kuijs on CNBC Squawk Box and Asia Pacific Economist Vishrut Rana on India’s ET Now. I had an eventful trip to the Middle East this past week attending a couple of important gatherings. First, at the COP28 conference in Dubai I joined my S&P Commodity Insights colleague and Head of Geopolitics Carlos Pascual at an Atlantic Council panel; second, at the Global Petrochemical Association forum in Doha I had the honor of presenting the keynote macro address. A team led by Global Head of Research and Development Alexandra Dimitrijevic released the 2024 Global Credit Outlook and we wrapped up our latest Credit Conditions round with a pair of webinars. That outlook included a number of “questions that matter” for 2024 and in today’s newsletter we feature the insights around energy transition, emerging markets, real estate and private markets.

Our Economists Hit the Airways

Following the release of our most recent macro reports last week, the team hit the airways. The discussions focused on our latest growth numbers, the conditions necessary for our soft landing baseline to prevail, and the outlook for inflation and central bank monetary policy

·??????? To watch my Yahoo Finance interview, click here .

·??????? To watch Sylvain’s Sky News interview, click here .

·??????? To watch Louis’s CNBC Squawk Box Asia interview, click here .

·??????? To watch Vishrut’s ET Now interview (India only), click here .

My Middle East Trip

I had a whirlwind trip to the Middle East this week. At the COP28 conference in Dubai, I appeared on an Atlantic Council panel with my colleague Carlos Pascual to talk about macro and geopolitics in the context of the energy transition. At the Gulf Petrochemical Association (GPCA) forum in Doha, I gave the keynote address on macro and the challenges around the energy transition.

In both venues my thinking about the energy transition benefitted from hearing the insights of a broad range of clients and stakeholders.

To watch the Atlantic Council panel, click here .

To watch my macro keynote at the GPCA, click here .

Global Credit Outlook 2024: New Risks, New Playbook

Alexandra and team released their Global Credit Outlook, containing our credit and macro outlooks for the year ahead. These include our base-case forecasts, assumptions, and key risks for what promises to be yet another challenging period for the global economy and markets.

While some of the same challenges remain, other risks have emerged—all of which require a new playbook for issuers and investors in the debt markets.

To access the Global Credit Report landing page, click here .

To watch the replay of the US/EMEA webinar, click here .

To watch the replay of the APAC webinar, click here .

Questions That Matter 2024

Aligned with the risks highlighted in the Global Credit Report, we answer the pressing “questions that matter” for 2024 and explore the uncertainties that will shape the coming year.

Many of these touch on themes that we have featured in Essential Economics, including the following:

?·??????? Energy Transition: Can The Shift To Net Zero Accelerate Amid Growing Headwinds? ?by Marion Amiot, Pierre Georges

·??????? ?Emerging Markets: Which EMs Are Better Positioned To Outperform In 2024? by Jose Perez-Gorozpe, Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, Eunice Tan and Vishrut Rana

·??????? Real Estate: Is The Worst Over For The Global Office Sector And China’s Residential Market? ?by Jim Manzi, Ana Lai, Franck Delage and Edward Chan

·??????? Private Markets: How Long Can The Golden Age Of Private Credit Last? by David Tesher, Paul Watters, Evan Gunter and Luca Rossi.