Economic Update | OCTOBER 2023

This month, Ginger Chambless, Head of Research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking, provides perspective into the latest stats on labor, inflation, commodities and other factors affecting the economy.

For a weekly dive into the latest economic and market data, check out our Economic and Market Update .

Economy: CEO confidence for economy has improved, but still relatively low

CEO confidence around the U.S. economic outlook has improved in recent months but remains below 50, which indicates expectations for softer conditions ahead.

Labor: Immigration uptick brings record number of foreign-born into labor force

With immigration on the rise this year, foreign-born workers participating in the US labor force has reached a new peak. If this trend continues, worker shortages in some sectors could ease.

Inflation: Forward-looking inflation expectations normalizing

Consumers’ inflation expectations over short-and longer-term horizons are still elevated, but trending towards the pre-pandemic average.

Commodities: National gas prices remain elevated compared to long-term average

Energy prices in general have been increasing this year after a volatile 2022. Higher prices at the pump directly impact consumers’ budgets and could dent discretionary spending trends.

Housing: Sales activity remains near historical cycle lows

Housing activity, including existing and pending home sales, has dropped roughly 40% over the past 18 months, corresponding to the sharp rise in mortgage rates over the same time.

Interest Rates: The hiking cycle may be over, but rates could be higher for longer

Based on the FOMC’s projections, the Fed Funds rate is expected to come down gradually over the next three years. This means rates could stay “restrictive” — above the neutral level — through 2026.

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