Economic Update | November 2023

This month, Ginger Chambless, Head of Research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking, provides perspective into the latest stats on labor, inflation, commodities and other factors affecting the economy.

For a weekly dive into the latest economic and market data, check out our Economic and Market Update.

Economy: Consumer spending has been resilient in 2023; some slowing expected

Consumer spending — which accounts for roughly two thirds of U.S. GDP — has been an economic bright spot in 2023. Trends in the third quarter suggest 4% annualized growth overall, led by services.

Labor: Wage growth is moderating, but still above pre-pandemic trend

Despite multiple measures of wage growth moderating, current levels remain above trend and reflect ongoing tightness in labor markets.

Inflation: Shelter inflation should track lower following market-based indicators

The heavily weighted shelter category has been a key reason “sticky” inflation has been slow to moderate. Market-based measures of rental pricing signal more easing in coming months.

Commodities: Pricing in focus amid geopolitical tensions

Despite increased tensions in the Middle East, oil prices have held relatively steady in the $85-90/barrel range. Meanwhile, gold’s safe haven characteristics have buoyed prices in line with all time highs.

FX: U.S. dollar rally could have room to run through year-end, including euro parity

The dollar’s rally over the past few months reflects the stronger economic backdrop in the U.S. versus other major economies. We expect this strengthening trend could extend through year-end.

Interest rates: Treasury yields reach levels not seen since 2007

Higher rates, including mortgages, have been driven by multiple factors, including reduced near-term recession risks, increased treasury issuance, and quantitative tightening.

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