Economic Update | November 2022

Third-quarter real GDP rose 2.6%. While running counter to concerns the U.S economy has already entered recession, underlying details reinforce that demand momentum is slowing amid the headwinds of higher interest rates and inflation.

Explore these trends and more in just six charts, curated by Ginger Chambless, Head of Research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking. If you’d like to dig deeper, visit Ginger’s Economic and Market Update for more insights each week.

Economics and markets: U.S. consumer has been resilient in the face of inflation

Although consumer demand has moderated to a below-average pace this year, personal consumption has held up better than expected, with gains through the third quarter.

Labor: Economy added jobs at a solid clip in recent months

The U.S. labor market has remained very resilient, adding jobs at an above-average pace. We expect this trend to moderate further in the coming months as economic growth slows.

Inflation: Underlying inflation trends are mixed across goods and services

Core goods prices have been rolling over as supply chain constraints ease, energy prices decline and the dollar strengthens. Services prices should turn the corner early next year.

Currency: The U.S. dollar has strengthen to 20-year highs

The stronger dollar reduces the price of imported goods and commodities. On the other hand, it serves a headwind for U.S. exports and also for international sales and profits.

Interest rates: Rising to the highest levels in over a decade

Treasury yields have risen quickly this year as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. Higher borrowing costs slow the pace of credit-dependent purchases like homes and autos.

Commodities: Input prices signal a trend toward some relief

While most commodity prices have risen this year due to higher demand and Russia- and Ukraine-related supply shocks, the declines from peak should mean relief on input prices is coming.

? 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.?JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.?Chase, J.P. Morgan,?JPMorgan?and JPMorgan Chase are marketing names?for certain businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries worldwide (collectively, “JPMC”). The material contained herein is intended as general market commentary. To the extent indices have been used in this commentary, please note that it is not possible to invest directly in an index. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies, as the case may be (“views”), expressed herein are those of Virginia Chambless and/or the other respective authors and speakers named in this piece and may differ from those of other JPMC employees and affiliates. These views are often based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views expressed herein may differ from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports. The above summary/prices/quotes/statistics have been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness.?Visit?jpmorgan.com/cb-disclaimer ?for full disclosures and disclaimers related to this content.