Economic Update | MARCH 2024

This month, Ginger Chambless, Head of Research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking, provides perspective into the latest stats on labor, inflation, commodities and other factors affecting the economy.

For a weekly dive into the latest economic and market data, check out our Economic and Market Update.

Economy: Year-to-date air travel is up 6% from last year and slightly more than 2020

Seasonally adjusted travel increased through early 2024 and is now slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Recovering demand for services like travel has been a key driver of recent U.S. economic momentum.

Labor: Some moderation, but overall labor markets remain strong

Ongoing gains in payrolls and a sub-4% unemployment rate for the past two years point to a still robust labor market.

Inflation: Pricing at restaurants taking longer to moderate than grocery stores

Food at home inflation spiked dramatically during the pandemic as consumers hunkered down. This has cooled significantly as supply chains normalized and consumers returned to dining out.

Interest rates: Yields have risen as markets adjust to a later start for Fed to cut rates

Treasury yields remain elevated as expectations around the timing of Fed rate cuts has been pushed out. Labor market strength and pockets of sticky inflation suggest rates staying higher for longer.

Housing: Recovery in single-family housing starts could help alleviate tight supply

With mortgage rates roughly 75 basis points off the 2023 peak, some housing metrics have begun to trend in the right direction, including single-family starts.

Credit: Select delinquency rates have climbed to above pre-pandemic levels

While trends for aggregate household delinquencies appear low from a historical context, deterioration within credit cards and auto loans have been pronounced, rising since the end of 2021.

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