Economic Update | June 2023

This month, Ginger Chambless, Head of Research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking, provides perspective into the latest stats on labor, inflation, commodities and other factors affecting the economy.

For a weekly dive into the latest economic and market data, check out our Economic and Market Update.

Economy: Spending activity on services is strong compared to historical norms

Consumer spending has been resilient thus far in 2023, with a notable shift towards services categories.

Labor: Labor markets remain tight with unemployment near historical lows

Although the gap has begun to shrink, demand for workers continues to exceed supply. This dynamic is contributing to ongoing challenges with hiring, retention and higher labor costs.

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Inflation: Improving, though overall levels remain elevated relative to Fed’s target

Per NFIB’s monthly small business survey, the percentage of businesses that plan to raise prices has been falling. This likely signals moderating headline inflation in the coming months.

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Commodities: Prices mostly lower amid moderating global growth and demand

Commodity prices are broadly lower year to date reflecting uncertainties around the global demand outlook. Gold is an exception, rising toward all-time highs given “safe haven” status.

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Credit: Trends in lending standards and loan demand reflect cautious environment

Demand for loans across all categories of borrowers experienced a notable drop in 2Q, consistent with a cautious business backdrop, downbeat consumer sentiment and higher cost of credit.

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Housing: Housing market is finding its footing amid stabilizing mortgage rates

As mortgage rates have held in the 6.5-7% range, housing starts, existing home sales, and homebuilder sentiment have all stabilized or slightly improved at levels 35-40% below their peak.

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