Economic Update | February 2025

This month, Ginger Chambless, Head of Research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking, provides perspective into the latest stats on labor, inflation, commodities and other factors affecting the economy.

Economy: On track for a soft landing

The U.S. economy expanded at a solid rate to end 2024, led by robust consumer spending which rose 4.2%—the first time since late 2021 that growth exceeded 3% in two consecutive quarters.

Labor: Improved supply and demand balance ??

Labor market dynamics over the past year suggest that supply and demand for workers has come into better balance. The ratio of open jobs to job seekers declined to roughly 1x.

Interest rates: Easing cycles underway across major central banks?

Moderating inflation has put major central banks on a path to easing policy rates. Of the 37 global central banks we track, 27 are cutting rates, including every G10 central bank other than Japan.

Commodities: Energy prices in focus amid new administration economic policies?

A key pillar of the new administration’s economic policy is increased oil and gas production and lower energy prices over time. Reduced regulatory burden could lower producers’ break-evens.

Foreign exchange: Dollar has strengthened to three-year highs

The dollar is hovering near three-year highs given potential tariffs, relative economic outperformance and less Fed easing expected versus other central banks.?

Trade: Tariffs potential creates some uncertainties with major trading partners

There is uncertainty around the potential effects of tariffs on U.S. prices, economic growth and global trade patterns. Canada and Mexico stand out in importance of U.S. exports to their economies

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