Economic Update | FEBRUARY 2024
JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking
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This month, Ginger Chambless, Head of Research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking, provides perspective into the latest stats on labor, inflation, commodities and other factors affecting the economy.
For a weekly dive into the latest economic and market data, check out our Economic and Market Update.
Economy: Manufacturing and services sector indicators tick up, but stay low
While business conditions for neither the manufacturing nor services sector looks particularly strong in a historical context, recent readings suggest an uptick from recent months.
Labor: Fewer workers left jobs voluntarily in 2023 after a record number in 2022
Lower quit levels are a welcomed development for many business leaders that have been challenged over the last couple years to retain talent amid tight labor markets.
Inflation: Rent inflation should continue to moderate over the next couple quarters
Shelter costs, including rents, comprise a meaningful 40% weight of core CPI. While this component of inflation has been “sticky,” alternative indicators suggests relief could be forthcoming.
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Commodities: Lower over the past 6 to 12 months amid slowing global growth
Commodity prices across most categories are generally lower over the past year reflecting slowing global economic growth. Precious metals are the exception with gold trading near all-time highs.
Supply Chain: Disruptions back into focus as conflict abroad impacts shipping routes
Military conflict in the Middle East has recently spread to the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Altered shipping patterns are extending delivery times and causing ocean freight prices to rise.
Markets: Equity returns have been boosted by strong Tech sector performance
Equity markets are trading near all-time highs, with the “Magnificent 7” (Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia) contributing half of the S&P 500’s gains since the start of 2023.
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