Economic Update | DECEMBER 2023

This month, Ginger Chambless, Head of Research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking, provides perspective into the latest stats on labor, inflation, commodities and other factors affecting the economy.

For a weekly dive into the latest economic and market data, check out our Economic and Market Update.

Economy: Consumers take to the skies in greater numbers; air travel back to 2019

The resiliency of consumer spending has been a bright spot for the economy in 2023. Spending growth on services such as air travel has outpaced goods, supporting the recovery to pre-pandemic levels.

Labor: Improving balance in the labor markets reflected in slowing wage growth

Wage growth and job openings across the economy are beginning to reflect a better balance in labor markets, as the supply of workers catches up to strong demand.

Inflation: Longer-term inflation expectations remain elevated

Consumers’ longer-term inflation expectations are elevated, but importantly remain “anchored.” This dynamic is closely watched by the Fed as it sets monetary policy to restore price stability.

Commodities: Precious metals outperform, reflecting flight to safety sentiment

Commodity prices experienced ongoing volatility over the course of 2023 amid elevated geopolitical tensions, lackluster China “reopening” and global recession concerns.

Housing: Home sales continue to be challenged amid tough rates backdrop

Housing activity continues to be hurt by the trifecta of 23-year high mortgage rates, constrained supply and elevated prices. Homeowners are effectively locked in, while potential home buyers are locked out.

Credit: Tighter lending standards and low loan demand portends slowing economy

While the economy has performed better than expected in 2023, the lagged effect of monetary policy, including tighter credit conditions, could exert more drag on growth in the coming quarters.

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