Economic update - 31 March

Inner city Melbourne and Sydney saw an exodus of people to the outer suburbs and regions during the pandemic

This week, ABS data on population levels at a suburb level were released and showed the extent to which population declined and increased at a small area level. Overall, our region's pandemic related population movement resulted in a net increase in regional area of 70,900 people in 2020/21 while capital cities lost 26,000 people. The cities that lost the most people people were Melbourne and Sydney while regional NSW and regional Queensland grew the most.?

Melbourne CBD lost the most people, declining by almost 6,000 people. This was a direct result of a loss of foreign students, as well as prolonged shutdowns in Melbourne which made the CBD less appealing. Coming in second and third were Clayton and Carlton, both suburbs which have large student populations.?

While inner areas of Melbourne and Sydney lost people, it wasn’t the case in new suburban growth areas as more people built houses, aided by HomeBuilder, and also showed a preference for larger homes. Riverstone-Marsden Park in Sydney’s outer north-western suburbs gained over 7,300 people while Cobbitty-Leppington saw an increase of 5,350 people.?

In regional areas, the biggest losses were in northern Queensland, in particular Cairns, as well as Mildura in northern Victoria. Gold Coast, Geelong and Sunshine Coast suburbs topped the list for growth.?

Looking back however doesn’t give us a good idea as to what is to come. In particular, inner Melbourne and Sydney, as well as university suburbs are likely to see population growth over the next 12 months as foreign students return. Similarly, Cairns should see a pick up as international tourists return to Australia.?