The Economic and Social Effects of Vehicle Ownership on the Automotive Industry and Society

Update from https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/destruction-passenger-car-ownership-benefit-antonio-reis/?trackingId=vzk76Nz5T9qtl%2FUIM6xKkQ%3D%3D 2017

Introduction Individual vehicle ownership is important to supporting the automobile industry's economic engine. Passenger automobile ownership is the cornerstone of a culture that supports a wide range of enterprises and services by leveraging the car owner's discretionary spending. This ownership type also supports numerous government programs critical for corporate operations and regional commerce.

However, any shift away from individual car ownership, be it gasoline-powered, electric, hybrid, or even a bicycle, could potentially have profound implications for local government's ability to manage and contribute to their populations' well-being. This shift could particularly limit mobility options for low-income groups, underscoring the urgency of addressing this issue.

Public Transportation and the Shared Economy Challenges

Public transportation in the United States, including taxi services and automobile rentals, is currently grappling with significant financial challenges. The emergence of tech-assisted ride-hailing services has only exacerbated this problem. The need for immediate solutions is evident, as expanding shared economy alternatives to transportation may lead to inferior quality, higher expenses, and restricted mobility for those in greatest need.

Today's transportation sector has little overlap between access, quality, and cost. Affordable and accessible transportation options?like public transit frequently have poorer quality and personal safety concerns, whereas high-quality alternatives are prohibitively expensive.

The United States Public Transportation and Ride-Hailing Industry

The American Public Transportation Association (APTA) estimates that the public transportation industry in the United States comprises around 6,800 entities. This industry employs over 430,000 people and handles around 34 million passenger boardings daily. It is also expected to create $79-80 billion annually, considerably contributing to the local and national economies. Despite the high revenue, the sector as a whole does not earn a profit and relies largely on government subsidies.

As of 2023, the taxi sector in the United States is expected to employ approximately 171,100 drivers. This figure includes independent contractors, who frequently operate as self-employed people. There are approximately 222,300 shuttle drivers and chauffeurs, some of whom also work in the taxi and ride-hailing industries. In the ride-hailing business, it is estimated that over 1.5 million drivers in the United States work for companies such as Uber and Lyft, with a large proportion working part-time.

Although these industries are critical to the US economy, both face economic challenges, mainly when post-COVID habits affect service demand. Traditional taxi drivers have struggled to compete with ride-hailing services, while fluctuations have influenced driver availability and government interference in the ride-hailing industry. These transportation systems struggle economically and offer minimal financial stability to their workforce.

The Role of Passenger Cars in the United States Transportation Landscape

Passenger automobiles offer balanced mobility, convenience, and affordability solutions regardless of cost. Car ownership promotes a culture of freedom, choice, and pride, making it a popular ambition among many individuals.

The automotive market in the United States thrives on ownership pride, with cars serving as symbols of personal identity and accomplishment in addition to mobility. While car-sharing, ride-hailing, and self-driving vehicles are disruptive, they are still minor compared to traditional ownership.

Addressing the push for autonomous electric vehicles and ridesharing

Concerns about pollution in densely populated metropolitan areas are driving the movement to deprioritize the existing automobile industry in favor of electric vehicles, while ride-sharing and autonomous electric vehicle developers are appropriating the movement for their marketing and funding. Although eliminating internal combustion engine (ICE) cars is unavoidable due to the finite nature of fossil fuels, the transition process is complicated and requires careful preparation.

Silicon Valley and the internet industry argue for a future dominated by shared economy models, claiming that younger people prefer environmental sustainability to ownership. This change is portrayed as unavoidable, with machine learning and artificial intelligence set to displace jobs and alter the future economy.

However, implementing this new paradigm presents particular problems for the United States compared to other regions, such as China. The emphasis on autonomy and electrification, especially in high-density locations like California, necessitates addressing larger socioeconomic challenges.

California's Example and the Feasibility of Transitioning to Autonomous Electric Vehicles

California's air quality challenges, such as rules encouraging zero-emission vehicles, need severe measures. However, the practical obstacles of replacing ICE vehicles and phasing out car ownership highlight the difficulty in making this change.

A hypothetical strategy in California comprises the following:

? Develop zero-emission public transit and product distribution in heavily populated areas.

? Closing oil refineries and focusing on renewable energy infrastructure.

? Partnerships between major corporations (e.g., Google, Tesla) aim to produce affordable electric automobiles and associated infrastructure.

These proposals would necessitate significant investments in renewable energy, vehicle charging infrastructure, and operational costs. For example, establishing 250,000 public chargers, expanding renewable energy generation, and dealing with the economic consequences of replacing millions of ICE vehicles would be a massive logistical and financial task.

Costs and Risks of Autonomous Vehicle Adoption

Significant issues surround the economic feasibility of a large-scale transition to autonomous electric vehicles. While corporations like Apple or Tesla may spearhead the change, considerable costs such as car manufacture, maintenance, and infrastructure development pose significant dangers.

A fleet of six million vehicles would be costly to operate, maintain, and manage continuously. Additional considerations include vehicle dependability, safety (e.g., electrical fires), and administrative costs. Furthermore, issues with payment systems, road maintenance, and insurance?must be addressed before such a system can be considered adequate.

Autonomous Driving and Full-Self Driving (FSD)

The current status of autonomous driving technology, particularly Full-Self Driving (FSD), demonstrates how distant we are from reaching full autonomy on a large scale. Despite substantial progress, the complexity of real-world situations?and the requirement for effective safety mechanisms continue to pose challenges. Autonomous driving systems, while promising, pose technical, ethical, and regulatory hurdles that may delay or impede widespread use.