Economic & Geopolitical Trends in a Trumpian Era

by Forbes Rutherford, Rutherford International Videos

What CEOs Should Know

As a CEO, understanding and tracking the political, economic, social, and technological (P.E.S.T) trends is essential and a strategic imperative. This knowledge empowers you to make informed decisions about investments, hiring, and growth strategies, leading to your business's success. This blog post will delve into key P.E.S.T-related trends that CEOs should know in 2025-2026. By staying ahead of these trends, you can be prepared for any potential challenges or opportunities, taking control of your business's future.

Global Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts 3.4% global economic growth through 2025, though growth rates vary widely across regions. The IMF expects Africa, South Asia, and East Asia to lead this expansion, driven by a rapidly expanding population, accelerated infrastructure development, technological advancements and structural reforms designed to increase private sector development. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) further bolstered this positive momentum, which seeks to enhance intra-African trade while driving investment and sustainable growth.

Increased investments in infrastructure, major structural reforms, and the implementation of advanced technologies are expected to drive economic growth in South and East Asia.

India and China are poised to continue their robust economic growth, driven by their leadership in the manufacturing and services sectors.

Developed economies are projected to face slower growth, hindered by challenges such as high debt levels, unfunded liabilities, expansive social policies, and overburdened administrative systems. These factors limit their growth potential, making it harder for them to compete with the economic vitality of emerging markets and the deregulated U.S. economy under the Trump administration.

Geopolitical tensions are introducing complexity to an already evolving global landscape. The ongoing indirect confrontation between NATO and Russia has intensified skepticism among Europeans regarding the European Union's technocratic leadership in Brussels. In Germany, the Green Party's vigorous advocacy for deindustrialization, promoted under the framework of Net Zero policies, has undermined the nation's industrial foundation. Concurrently, across the North Sea, the United Kingdom remains deeply polarized, with prominent Remainer factions impeding the effective execution of Brexit. This obstruction has exacerbated cultural and economic disparities between rural and urban communities. In France, the nation's cautious yet gradual withdrawal from its colonial connections in Africa continues to influence its trade relationships. Collectively, these developments signify a substantial transformation in global trade dynamics.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a general trend of global economic growth, though the pace and patterns of this growth are expected to vary significantly across different regions. Various economic conditions will influence these differences, including inflation rates, employment levels, and investment opportunities. Social factors, such as demographic changes, educational attainment, and the overall quality of governance, will also play a role. Consequently, while some regions may experience strong growth and development, others might encounter significant challenges hindering economic progress.

Several factors have the potential to significantly reshape trade dynamics across various regions, particularly in light of the enduring impact of President Trump's efforts to redefine global trade through his "America First" agenda. The initial term of the "Trumpian Era" was defined by protectionist policies and trade conflicts, which have left a profound and lasting impression on the global economy. Key occurrences, including the US-China trade war, Brexit, and the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), illustrate the geopolitical shifts that have disrupted established trade relationships. As we transition into "Trumpian Era II," similar disruptions are anticipated to emerge, further influencing the global economic landscape.

Emerging Technologies

AI and blockchain are not merely emerging technologies but transformative forces revolutionizing various industries. AI allows machines to analyze data and perform complex tasks that require human intelligence. Conversely, blockchain serves as a secure and transparent distributed ledger, making it ideal for applications where trust and security are paramount.

The potential of these technologies is immense. In 2025, the AI market is projected to reach an impressive $118.6 billion, driven by the growing demand for AI-powered solutions across diverse sectors. Blockchain technology, recognized for its ability to revolutionize supply chain management, prevent fraud, and enhance security, is expected to achieve an impressive Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 67.3%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). By the close of 2025, the number of Internet of Things (IoT) devices is expected to surpass 30 billion, creating unprecedented opportunities for businesses to utilize and analyze vast datasets.

These innovations are redefining the future and opening up vast possibilities for industries worldwide. Beyond being simple tools, they serve as catalysts for visionary business strategies, encouraging leaders to rethink operations and reimagine their approaches. With the capability to transform industries, these technologies drive greater efficiency and sharpen competitive advantages. This evolution promises to revolutionize business practices and spark optimism for your organization's future of innovation and growth.

Building Organizations with Predictive Analytics

At Rutherford International, our cutting-edge algorithms deliver clear and precise insights, helping clients identify the best career paths and hires. Incorporating AI in predictive analytics will be transformative, revealing extensive possibilities in talent management. This approach is not only innovative but also highly cost-effective. As we look to the future, we envision predictive assessments becoming integral at every stage of the employee lifecycle—providing richer candidate insights and enabling continuous, real-time feedback to drive smarter decisions and better outcomes.

The outcomes? Organizations that proactively anticipate and adapt to workforce demands will secure a distinct competitive edge in their industries.

Labour Market

The labour market is experiencing profound transformation, driven by rapid technological advancements, evolving workforce dynamics, and shifting demographics. Experts forecast a wave of disruption in the coming years. By the end of 2025, AI will have replaced an astounding 85 million jobs worldwide, while an additional 20 million manufacturing positions will vanish by 2030.

Historically, labour dislocation often occurs before the successful implementation of major industrial and technological advancements, as risk-takers respond to market uncertainties. Throughout the remainder of the 2020s, rising costs for businesses and individuals will outpace revenue growth and private-sector employment rates. In response, indecisive policymakers will urge companies to tackle these challenges by focusing on workforce retraining and promoting lifelong learning programs.

Talent War & Behavioural Competencies

Relying on social capitalism—where businesses and governments act as safety nets—is a strategy that thrives only during times of economic prosperity. However, as individuals anticipate a landscape of uncertainty in the workforce leading up to 2030, it becomes crucial for them to take proactive measures in developing their aptitudes. Instead of depending solely on corporate or governmental support, individuals should actively engage in their personal growth and education. This proactive mindset not only empowers them but also fosters a more resilient workforce capable of navigating the inevitable economic challenges ahead.

Moreover, the rapid evolution of technology will redefine the focus from conventional skills and academic qualifications to the behavioural competencies essential for success in specific careers or roles. This transformation will not only reshape the job market but also provide CEOs with enhanced control over their workforce's resilience. By prioritizing the development of adaptable, behaviour-driven skills, they can cultivate a dynamic and responsive team, positioning their organizations to thrive even in turbulent times.

Corporate Sustainability:

In the "Trumpian Era II," where policies aim to cut ten regulations for every new one introduced, consumer demand is expected to drive corporate sustainability more than government procurement. Businesses may worry less about losing contracts and more about meeting the expectations of consumers, who increasingly value sustainability and ethical practices.

However, the thousands of unsold electric vehicles sitting on dealership lots suggest that reputational risks for slow sustainability adopters remain limited. This raises questions about the urgency of businesses prioritizing green initiatives.

To succeed, companies must balance the needs of eco-conscious consumers with those facing financial constraints. This requires understanding consumer preferences while acknowledging economic realities.

Despite challenges, the sustainability trend is likely to continue. Companies should focus on renewable energy, eco-friendly products, and circular economy models that promote reuse and recycling. These investments can help businesses lead in sustainability, appealing to a growing market for responsible practices while adapting to evolving consumer behaviour.

Future of "Social" in ESG

The Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) framework has been crucial for assessing the impact of investments and business practices on society and sustainability, especially prior to Trump's presidency. While environmental issues often dominate discussions, the social aspect of ESG gained significant importance following the Great Financial Crisis, highlighting a shift in stakeholder priorities. This component evaluates a company's ability to cultivate strong, collaborative relationships with employees, suppliers, customers, and communities, ultimately contributing to social well-being. Key considerations include human rights, fair labour practices, and health and safety standards.

As economic challenges increase—ranging from currency devaluation to deepening recessions in Western nations—the future of social sustainability within the ESG framework appears increasingly uncertain. Businesses now face a crucial moment where executives and boards must determine which elements of corporate social responsibility can be scaled back, particularly under financial scrutiny. Once a driving force behind business decisions, enhancing reputations and attracting top talent through ESG factors now confronts shifting priorities. Younger generations, especially Gen Y and Gen Z, are less swayed by the egalitarian ideals championed by Gen X and older Millennials. Instead, they emphasize meritocracy and economic stability as they seek to establish their independence and move out of their parents' homes.

Conclusion:

These snapshots present a picture of a Western world struggling with the unpredictability of the Trumpian juggernaut. CEOs must vigilantly track these developments and craft strategic plans to navigate and mitigate potential impacts.

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