Economic Data 2020 Projection - GLOBAL

The world could be heading for another choppy year. Noise of recession will be heard all the year, but I do not see it occurring, as negative interest rates will help the economy and the borrowers. 

Due to lack of Tax Collection, Cash Constrain and over leveraged economies followed by overpriced market. Ultra easy global monetary policy is the only tool available for economic survival that should help to avoid crash. 

While in USA, Senate will probably come to Trump’s rescue to counter impeachment threat. With 40% stable Gallup Poll Ratings, it suggest his chances of winning 2020 elections is encouraging due to his voters commitment. I say this because, as witnessed in last elections, the turnout was the major helping cause putting Trump ahead.

This time too it will once again be the guiding factor for the Republicans. Therefore, it will be though for the Democrats to defeat Trump, unless sizable younger generation voters finally decides to come out of their homes to vote against him. 

Probability of enduing of USA/CHINA trade dispute, it will continue to hang around until November 2020 elections as it suits the government. My view on trade dispute remains unchanged. It is likely to stretch beyond this year’s election, if 5G technology and security related tension remains unsettled. There is a big risk that conflict may even escalate if not earlier and seriously addressed.

Conflicting signals on trade issues will continue to dominate with possibility of minor adjustments, as quest to lead technological supremacy is the barrier, which is the real cause of tension between China and USA.

Europe, USA and the supporters of super power will have to realize that the rules of the game has changed. China and Russia are not newbies. Rest of the world should accept the fact that they both are most technologically advanced nations. This is why at home, China has decided to replace its infrastructure and is now planning to replace the foreign technology it possesses. Constant pressure would not help US Economy to ease in 2020 and it may struggle to attain 2% growth.

However, risk of trade war between USA and Europe cannot be ruled out if Europe becomes Donald Trump’s next target. With Lagarde now in charge of ECB, she is faced with numerous challenges. Europe too is in disarray due to political turmoil and single market issues.  

While, after Boris Johnson’s election dominance, BREXIT romance will continue to dominate in 2020, as extension prospects has been reversed, and sudden exit without a trade deal looks a good probability. Hence Pound Sterling will remain choppy. Hard Brexit will cause damage to Bullish sentiment.

CURRENT  --        TARGET -- RANGES 2020 -- BIAS

FED RATE 1.75%    1.25%        1.25%---1.75% Down

US 10YR B 1.91       2.35            1.40-2.40         UP

DOW          28538    23000 then Up 32000 -    Down/Up

OIL (WTI) $61.5     $68 then Down to $ 52    Up/Down

GOLD        $1517    $ 1610        $ 1420-$1640    UP

EURO        1.12      1.1640       1.0850-1.1748 - Choppy

GBP           1.33   1.3920     1.24 -1.44   Bullish but Choppy

JPY            108.7          105.50   104 – 114     Both Ways

AUD          0.70   Support @ 0.66 for 0.7480  Both Ways

YUAN       6.96       7.18                6.60-7.20       Weak

INR            71.22     74.50              68-76             Weak

SUGAR    358.5          380           320-410            Up

WHEAT   558.75         580          510- 595  Buy the Dips

(Disclaimer applies in my post, which means that the perspective is my personal view. I have made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is strictly for information and not intended for Trade or Business Transaction)