Economic benefits of fixed links: Stockholm-Tallinn and Ume?-Vaasa

STOCKHOLM-TURKU-HELSINKI-TALLINN

The idea of building fixed connections between Stockholm, Turku, Helsinki, and Tallinn, incorporating bridges, tunnels, and possibly rail links, may have significant potential for generating long-term economic benefits. These benefits can be assessed by looking at international trade, tourism, labor mobility, and regional integration. The high initial construction costs of these infrastructure projects could be considered alongside their potential economic returns over the next 100 years.

Overview of possible routes and costs

The connection from Stockholm to Turku could involve several bridges and causeways through the archipelago. From Parainen to Korpo, a series of bridges and causeways crossing islands, such Parainen-Nauvo link bridges, will be required. From Korpo to ?land, another set of bridges and causeways would cross the islands leading to ?land. The final part, from ?land (Ecker?) to Byholman in Sweden north from Stockholm, will require a long submarine tunnel.

Total construction Costs for the Stockholm-Turku link would range from €10 to €20 billion, depending on the chosen route and design options.

Turku to Helsinki segment could follow existing land infrastructure, with enhancements or expansions to accommodate increased traffic from a Stockholm link.

Helsinki to Tallinn Tunnel has been a long-considered project, making it one of the world’s longest underwater rail tunnels. Estimated construction costs for this tunnel are €13–20 billion, with a construction timeline of 15–20 years.

Economic benefits

Fixed connections would streamline and optimize cargo flows between the Nordic countries, the Baltic States, and Central Europe. This would enhance supply chain efficiency and reduce dependence on ferries and weather-dependent transport. These connections could turn the Stockholm-Turku-Helsinki-Tallinn region into a significant logistics hub for goods between Southern and Western Europe, even Asia and Russia after economy stabilized after Russia stopped attack to Ukraine. This would make the region attractive for large-scale investments in logistics, storage, and transport infrastructure.

Reduced transit times would attract more freight traffic through this corridor, enhancing competition with other European routes. The entire region could benefit from reduced transportation costs, especially by eliminating delays caused by the reliance on ferry services across the Baltic Sea.

These infrastructure projects could boost strong cross-border business relations. With enhanced connectivity, it becomes easier for firms in Sweden, Finland, and Estonia to trade and collaborate, benefiting sectors like manufacturing, technology, and logistics.

Fast and reliable transport links between Stockholm, Turku, Helsinki, and Tallinn would likely lead to a rise in tourism. This could transform these cities into part of a multi-city tourism circuit, attracting both leisure and business travelers. A Helsinki-Tallinn tunnel could reduce travel time to 30 minutes, which would significantly boost short-term visits, especially for tourism and commerce. Better connectivity would promote international conferences and events, including sport, in these cities, stimulating the local economies with greater hotel and hospitality spending.

Labor market and regional integration

Greater mobility of labor between Finland, Sweden, and Estonia could reduce skill shortages in specific industries. For example, a Helsinki-Tallinn tunnel would enable daily commuting between the two cities, creating a unified labor market and balancing labor demands in both countries. The creation of fixed connections would deepen economic integration between the Nordic and Baltic countries, fostering regional cooperation. This could lead to stronger economic, political, and social ties.

Decreased travel times would mean that businesses and individuals could more easily move between Stockholm, Turku, Helsinki, and Tallinn for work, services, and commerce. This could help reduce urban congestion in each city by dispersing economic activity more evenly across the region.

Long-term investment and innovation

These new transportation links would make the region more attractive to global investors, particularly in high-tech industries, research centers, and innovation clusters. The region's strategic position between Eastern and Western Europe would be a key selling point for attracting international corporations.

Improved connections between these cities could spur the creation of technology parks and research and development hubs, where cross-border collaborations would foster innovation. This could be particularly advantageous for sectors such as digital technology, renewable energy, and smart logistics.

Estimated benefits vs. costs over 100 years

The overall construction costs for fixed connections (bridges, tunnels, and rail) between Stockholm, Turku, Helsinki, and Tallinn are estimated at €30-50 billion, depending on the specific routes, types of infrastructure, and technical challenges.

Over a period of 100 years, the economic benefits from increased trade, tourism, logistics optimization, and labor mobility could be substantial.

Benefits from trade and logistics improvements could generate an additional €2-5 billion per year, while tourism could contribute between €500 million to €1 billion per year.

Overall, the region could see net economic benefits ranging between €200-400 billion over a century, which would more than cover the initial infrastructure investments.

With payback periods ranging between 50 and 100 years, these projects would start generating net positive returns within a century, potentially offering substantial long-term economic benefits.

UME?-VAASA

The proposed fixed link between Uumaja (Sweden) and Vaasa (Finland) would be a monumental infrastructure project, involving either a tunnel or a combination of bridges and tunnels across the Gulf of Bothnia. This connection would provide significant long-term economic and social benefits, much like the proposed Stockholm-Turku-Helsinki-Tallinn link.

Key economic benefits

Link would create faster and more reliable logistics between Sweden and Finland, reducing reliance on ferry traffic and its susceptibility to weather disruptions. It could serve as a major logistics corridor between northern Europe, Central Europe (and Asia via Russia after Russia stopped conflict in Ukraine), potentially boosting the flow of goods and enhancing regional trade routes. Growth in freight transport between Sweden and Finland could generate hundreds of millions of euros annually by optimizing logistics and reducing delays.

Shorter travel times and a more efficient transport system could significantly increase tourist numbers in both Uumaja and Vaasa. Both regions could attract more day-trippers and short-term tourists, boosting the local economy. Tourism revenues would be estimated to increase by €100–200 million per year over the long term. Increased accessibility to natural attractions and cultural events in both regions could make Uumaja and Vaasa more attractive to international visitors.

The fixed link would support daily commuting, potentially integrating the labor markets of both countries and addressing local labor shortages. It would strengthen economic and cultural ties between the two regions, fostering more cross-border cooperation. Increased mobility of workers could benefit industries in both regions, particularly in logistics, services, and manufacturing sectors.

Estimated costs and long-term benefits

The Uumaja-Vaasa fixed link is estimated to cost between €4–12 billion (or €6–18 billion if a rail connection is included). The project would involve building a tunnel of approximately 80 kilometers, making it one of the longest underwater tunnels in the world.

Over 100 years, the economic benefits from trade, tourism, and labor mobility could range from €50 to €200 billion.

The payback time is estimated at 50-100 years, after which the project would yield significant returns.

Breakdown:

Stockholm–Turku–Helsinki–Tallinn Link

?? Cost: €50 Billion (maximum)

?? Annual benefits: €4 Billion from trade, tourism, and transportation

? Payback time: 35 years (assuming 5 % interest and including 15 years construction tim

?? 100-year benefit: €290 Billion (including 20%=€10 Billion maintenance costs)

??Benefit/investment ratio (100 years): 3.8

Uumaja–Vaasa Link

?? Cost: €20 Billion

?? Annual benefits: €1.2 Billion

? Payback time: 52 years (assuming 5% interest and including 15 years construction time

?? 100-year benefit: €64 Billion (including €2 Billion maintenance costs)

?? Benefit/investment ratio (100 years): 2.2