Eclipse 2024 – Getting Ready for 2045
On Saturday August 12, 2045, starting at about 9:15 AM Pacific time in California and ending at about 1:30 PM Eastern time in Florida, the next transcontinental total solar eclipse will occur. This time totality will pass over a dozen metropolitan areas.
Directly over:????????????????????????????????????????????????? Adjacent Metropolitan Areas:
Redding, CA???????????????????????????????????????????????????? Sacramento & San Francisco, CA
Reno, NV
Salt Lake City, UT
Denver & Colorado Springs, CO
Oklahoma City, OK??????????????????????????????????????? ? Dallas, TX
Tulsa, OK???????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Kansas City, MO
Little Rock, AR???????????????????????????????????????????????? Memphis, TN & New Orleans, LA
Montgomery, AL??????????????????????????????????????????? Atlanta, GA
Orlando, Tampa & Miami, FL???????????????????? ?Jacksonville, FL
The 2024 eclipse did not pass over the western USA. For the 2017 eclipse which passed over the western USA, the lack of interstate freeway corridors resulted in substantial congestion on I-5, I-15, and I-25 as the path did not directly pass over the larger metropolitan areas. In 2045, Salt Lake City, Denver, and Colorado Springs are in the path of totality which will reduce the type of impacts experienced in 2017. However, in California and the I-5 corridor, the path is over Redding but just north of Sacramento and San Francisco/San Jose which are within a three-hour drive of totality.
A significant portion of the path of totality in the central part of the USA is in areas that were in or close to totality in 2017 and 2024. Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Dallas, Little Rock, and Memphis are getting multiple opportunities to experience totality, except this time, the wait is 20 years. In 2045, the path will be close to the Gulf of Mexico which limits travel potential from the south. But the path of totality will engulf nearly 90 percent of Florida.
The things that worked well in 2024 and 2017 should be “pocketed” for 2045. Lessons learned from the last two eclipse events that can be carried forward to 2045 include:
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Some things that were not used extensively in the prior eclipse events that would merit greater consideration and possible advanced planning for 2045 may include:
In the future a few items that might have the potential to serve transportation demand during the eclipse that really were not available in 2017 or 2024 might include:
So, what does that mean for transportation planning in the coming 20 years? For one, there is time to consider how potential transportation investments might not only be useful for recurring congestion but also be designed to serve a once-in-a-generation event. That does not mean designing the transportation system for a 5-minute event, but taking the time in the regions where the eclipse will pass to potentially accelerate needed investments to be ready for use during the eclipse in the metropolitan areas listed above. Most important would be to realize that for State Transportation Improvement Plans and for Regional Transportation Plan improvements that if construction is schedule on paths to totality, the construction would best be completed before August 2045 or start after August 2025.
Another consideration would be to emphasize or prioritize types of investment (such as active transportation) which has long term community value and can be an effective means to manage eclipse travel in 2045 by reducing vehicle demand. Things such as establishing multi-use pathways, interconnecting trail systems and filling gaps in the off-road trail network in the path of totality should be studied and implemented prior to 2045.
To provide context to possible planning, here are some ideas for California and the I-5, US 101 and Lake Tahoe corridors. While these are specific to California, they are transferable ideas for other regions. By no means is this an exhaustive listing. It can be used to initiate the kind of creative thinking about how long-term infrastructure investments could be planned, prioritized and “tweaked” to better manage travel for the next eclipse event, even better than was done in 2017 or 2024. The objective is simply to better reduce the crush (micro-surge) of vehicle trips on major highways post-eclipse by whatever means possible (shuttles, delaying return trips, adding temporary capacity).
I-5 and US 101 Corridors
Tahoe/Reno Area
While it is 20 years until the next transcontinental total solar eclipse it is never too soon to start planning. The regional long-term planning horizon is typically 20 years, so this event is within that time frame. Many significant transportation investments will be made in the next 20 years that have independent value. By flexibily considering their utility and priority in serving a mega-event, such as the eclipse, we can best serve the public with greater value from such improvements than simply looking at them as elements of a capital improvements plan. This approach to comprehensive planning can expand the utility of certain programmed transportation improvements.