Echoes of Empire: How Russia and China's Historical Legacies Shape Their Quest for Global Power
In an era where the ghosts of empires past still haunt the corridors of power, the actions of Russia and China on the world stage can be read as chapters from their historical narratives. These two nations, emerging from their chrysalises with memories of humiliation and loss, are reasserting themselves in a global order that has long moved past the certainties of the 20th century.
Russia, with its Soviet past receding into history, finds itself in a struggle to reclaim the influence it perceives as rightfully its own. China, on the other hand, having endured what it remembers as a "century of humiliation," embarks on a path to restore what it views as its historic status as a global power. Both nations, in their quest for recognition and security, offer a study in contrasts and similarities that provides a deeper understanding of the dynamics of emerging great powers. By examining the interplay of past and present, I aim to shed a bit of light on the motivations driving Russia and China. This analysis will not only offer insight into their future trajectories but also provide lessons for the international community as it seeks to engage with these resurgent powers.
Historical Narratives and National Identity
Historical narratives are not just stories nations tell themselves; they are the foundations upon which national identities are built and foreign policies are formulated. For Russia and China, these narratives are a mix of triumph, tragedy, and a burning aspiration to correct historical wrongs.
The collapse of the Soviet Union was a watershed moment for Russia, not only geopolitically but also psychologically. The narrative that ensued was one of a great power unjustly humbled, a narrative that Vladimir Putin has famously encapsulated by calling the Soviet dissolution the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century. This narrative has become a rallying point for a nation in search of its old status, driving a foreign policy aimed at restoring its sphere of influence and protecting its sovereignty against perceived encroachments by Western powers.
China's story, on the other hand, is one of resurgence from a period of exploitation and weakness at the hands of colonial powers. The "century of humiliation," starting with the Opium Wars in the 19th century and culminating in the Japanese occupation during World War II, has been a cornerstone of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) legitimacy. It underpins the "Chinese Dream" of national rejuvenation espoused by President Xi Jinping, a dream that entails not only economic prosperity but also China's restoration as a leading global power.
China's contemporary actions, much like Russia's, are best understood through the lens of its historical narrative. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military buildup in the South China Sea, and the assertive diplomatic posture, known as "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy, can be seen as manifestations of this narrative. Each initiative is a step towards erasing the memories of subjugation and reasserting China's status as a global leader.
The lessons from these historical narratives for understanding China's actions suggest that China's assertiveness is not merely a function of its current leadership's preferences but a long-term strategic orientation rooted in a historical consciousness that seeks to rectify past humiliations. This understanding is crucial for the international community, especially when engaging with China on issues where historical sensitivities are particularly acute, such as Taiwan, Tibet, and the South China Sea.
Strategic Expansion and Sphere of Influence
Both Russia and China have made strategic expansions and military alliances cornerstones of their foreign policy. This pursuit is inextricably linked to their historical narratives and the desire to exert influence over what they consider their rightful sphere. For Russia, the post-Soviet space is not merely a region of strategic interest but an essential component of its identity. The war of aggression against Ukraine and the support of separatist movements and loyalist regime leaders are assertive statements of this policy. These actions underscore Russia's commitment to maintaining a buffer against the west and asserting its role as the dominant regional power.
China's strategy is more expansive, seeking to establish its influence through development and economic integration. The BRI is a prime example, stretching from East Asia to Europe, aiming to position China at the center of a new global economic order. Militarily, China has sought to fortify its position in the South China Sea, modernizing its military and establishing outposts, thereby asserting its territorial claims and demonstrating its ability to project power.
While Russia has used organizations like the CSTO to forge military alliances, China has taken a different path, often preferring bilateral relationships and economic partnerships to traditional military alliances. However, China's recent moves, such as the security pact with the Solomon Islands, signal a potential shift towards more formal security arrangements.
China's military postures and strategic ambitions reflect its historical narrative of rejuvenation. The PLA's modernization efforts are not only about defending sovereignty but also about ensuring that China never again experiences the vulnerability of the past. The development of a blue-water navy, overseas military bases, and advanced missile systems are measures aimed at safeguarding the national rejuvenation agenda.
Economic Integration and International Image
The economic domain has become a primary theater for the exertion of influence by Russia and China, with both nations leveraging their economic heft to create strategic dependencies and to counterbalance Western economic and political clout.
Russia has historically used its energy resources as a tool of foreign policy, particularly in Europe where its gas supplies are integral to the energy security of several countries. This dependence has been used by Moscow to exert political pressure and to drive wedges within European unity on policies toward Russia, especially in light of sanctions imposed first after the annexation of Crimea and then even more so after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
China's economic strategy has been more comprehensive and global in scope. Through initiatives like the BRI, China has sought to weave a web of economic interdependence that can translate into political influence. Beyond economics, China has invested heavily in soft power resources—Confucius Institutes, global media presence, and major sporting events—to craft an image of a benign and culturally rich rising power.
Both nations have also had to contend with the expansion of Western political, economic, and military alliances. Russia's response has often been confrontational, as seen in its military actions and cyber operations. China, while similarly resistant to perceived containment strategies such as the U.S.'s pivot to Asia, has often responded with a more nuanced mix of assertiveness and engagement, seeking to present itself as a champion of globalization and multilateralism in contrast to a more inward-looking West.
The management of international image and soft power is where the paths of Russia and China distinctly diverge. Russia's international image has been marred by its aggressive foreign policy moves and allegations of election interference, which have often overshadowed its cultural diplomacy. China, while facing criticism over human rights issues, has managed to maintain a more positive image in many parts of the world through its economic contributions and a narrative of peaceful development.
What Can We Learn From This?
As the international community engages with Russia and China, it must recognize that Beijing's and Moscow's actions are driven by a complex mixture of historical grievances, strategic calculus, and a deep-seated desire for respect and status. This historical consciousness informs their strategic postures, economic policies, military alliances, and their quest for power. For Russia, this has meant a reassertion of influence and defense of what it perceives as its sphere of influence through assertive, if not aggressive, foreign policy. For China, the drive for economic integration, regional dominance, and global respect is an effort to overturn a century of humiliation and to take its place as a primary shaper of the international order.
For policymakers and analysts, it is crucial to understand that engagement with Russia and China requires not only a grasp of current geopolitical realities but also an appreciation of the historical underpinnings of their behaviors. The historical narratives of Russia and China are not mere relics of the past but are active scripts informing their ambitions and actions. Both diplomatic strategies and military calculations must consider these historical perspectives to avoid misinterpretations and erroneous assumptions. The international community's ability to understand and respond to these narratives will be pivotal in shaping a world order that is stable and conducive to collective progress.