Eastern Mediterranean...at "Zero Time"

Mediterranean, Our Sea

By Ilias A Leontaris(1)

Eastern Mediterranean......at "Zero Time"(2)

Mediterranean Sea: A sea "in the middle of the earth", as the word says. In order for someone to understand the importance of this area, he should highlight the characteristics of the most important cultures and states developed/created in the region. This will distinguish the importance of the Mediterranean as a political and cultural entity in the world's historical world, Mediterranean culture as the basis of a global culture and will succeed in analyzing the interaction of cultures and states in the Mediterranean area – the complexity of the region – as well as the various political, social and economic problems it faced or played out there. In this way, it will have enough background to approach modern issues in the Mediterranean and in particular the Eastern Mediterranean.

Major General (R) Ioannis Parisis, with his book "Our own Sea, The Sea In Us/Η καθ’ ημ?? θ?λασσα?, gives us all the current components of the role of the Mediterranean in the evolution of history, of this navel of monotheistic religions and cultures with the special and very important strategic value, from the first fictional years/times of "Our own Sea” to the days of energy reserves exploration and exploitation, oil or natural gas pipelines and the "numerous drones" which fly in the area and we have been and we're experiencing any type or kind of airspace violations.

One must therefore evaluate and demonstrate the role they have played and play in the defense, economic and national configuration of our region, the conflict of interests and the military power of the area occupants concerned, and namely:

What does Gibraltar and the Suez Canal mean today for the game of balance of power?

How did we get to the Arab Spring? Did it come out of nowhere or was it designed with specific targets?

How have bilateral, trilateral, or tripartite and multilateral relations developed in the region?

Was the "appetite" of Cyprus and Greece to cooperate with Israel, Egypt, and the other countries of the region, accidentally opened. Like Israel and Egypt.

Was the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) created by chance? Or was it a way to industrialize and to exploit the underwater energy of their region?

How do we explain China's (late) interest in our "security"?

What is the role of traditional Geostartigic Actors? (e.g. the US, Russia, in the response to crises in the region (IRAK, AFGANISTAN, Al Qaeda, Syria, ISIS/DAESH, Libya?)

Is an opportunistic crisis settlement, for example in Syria or Libya, sustainable?

How is Turkey's attitude and tactics assessed in the Mediterranean in conjunction with its involvement in Syria and Libya?

What should be the attitude of the EU mainly but also that of NATO to regional problems/disputes or differences, such as the protection and exercise of the sovereign rights of each member country, energy security, illegal immigration, and refugee flows as well as their derivatives in security, the economy and any other kind of action of organized crime (Trafficking, Smuggling, WMD, Terrorism, Narcotics, etc.)?.

Finally, how is the attitude of Greece and Cyprus assessed in the developments and the current events in the Eastern Mediterranean?

"Our own Sea, The Sea In Us/Η καθ’ ημ?? θ?λασσα?, as Stravon calls in his “Geographical” the Mediterranean, condenses, analyzes and highlights the developments and events of a region for which Eleni Glykatzi-Arveler wrote that "for centuries has monopolized world history". 

On this basis and not only those but also the new actors, the new interests (which are not very new), we should or should have rather seen how the future of the region is drawn/designed without missing the current situation with the ongoing regional crises, the initiatives to resolve them, within the framework of this International Law Order, as the states through the International Organizations have established.

So, are we in "TIME ZERO"?

Is the Eastern Mediterranean on the edge of the razor?

Whatever answer one gives, he risks being blamed either for procrastination, submissiveness, defeatism, etc. or for destruction, immediacy, alarmism, etc.

After all, we have seen this with the signing of the Greek-Italian Agreement on Maritime Zones, which has caused an internal conflict that moves on the boundaries of “national betrayal” to the “national triumph” and this is because this agreement is linked to the forthcoming and particularly difficult talks with Egypt and Turkey and in the light of the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum.

I agree with the view of all those who believe that the 'militarization' of politics, international relations, or even a crisis should be the last……. the last choice.

But what happens when the "other side/the opponent" has planned his actions based on a revisionist and expansionary policy, invoking the size of the country, its population, or even its military power?

What happens when international law is interpreted or even applied/Implemented as they see fit?

What happens when the "neighbor" supports his negotiating tactics in the fait accompli, which he seeks?

Either way, my view is interpreted, my personal position is that,

YES, Eastern Mediterranean is in the 'TIME ZERO',

either as a whole or as a part of the components that make up the 'Eastern Mediterranean' case and each acting institution, (state or organization), should approach the issue with the attitude imposed by the 'last chance'.

Yes, we do have the last chance!!!!

Here the Greek Epitome "Never is too late" does not apply.

Keep in mind that for some issues" "being late" means failure, in whatever meaning it is given or whatever domain this word is used.

Let us now come to reality.

The eastern Mediterranean is becoming more and more dangerous as the geopolitical/economic developments squeeze steadily the region.

To these developments we could include:

The Israeli-Palestinian case.

The Cyprus issue, which has remained in the "freezer" for 46 years.

The Israeli-Lebanese dispute.

Syria's civil war combined with Turkish aspirations in the region.

The crisis continues as a civil war in Libya as well.

The Diplomatic tension between countries in the region and especially Turkey with Israel, Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

We should also take into consideration the Revisionist and Expansionary Policy implemented by Turkey in the region with the ultimate aim of becoming a Regional Power, a Leader of the Muslim Countries and the establishment of a Neo-Ottoman model of influence, as well as its military expansion in Syria, its diverse involvement in the Libyan crisis, the establishment of Bases and the deployment of large numbers of forces in Somalia and Qatar.

It would be an omission, however, to exclude those energy-related issues at all levels and forms, namely: The interpretation of the Geneva Convention (1958) on the Continental shelf and the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982).

We should also monitor or follow how Turkey translates and implements the above international conventions in the field (at sea) as well as the implementation of the “Blue Homeland” “Big Idea”, either on the perimeter of Cyprus or with the extension of the Turkish continental shelf or even by the Turkish-Libyan Agreement signed in November 2019.

Turkey sees any action of cooperation between the countries of the region as being directed against it and is determined to do everything in its power to prevent the implementation of these projects, regardless of the progress of the discoveries and the implementation of the drilling and exploitation program and the marketing plan of the companies.

Turkey also considers that the benefits of having a pipeline crossing or passing through its territory to Europe will be greater than the exploitation itself of any deposits it decides to exploit.

Moreover, TU understands that this will make Europe dependent on Turkey, and that is something Erdogan is seeking.

So, what makes up the TIME ZERO for us?

All this and perhaps more that are not known to the ordinary citizen.

We missed the opportunity of the initiative despite the fact that Erdogan and his representatives were touting what was going to happen or what he has planned and was going to do.

Unfortunately, we followed the events of the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum signing and protested gently.

I am sure that Ankara expected something more, e.g. demarcation of EEZ with the Republic of Cyprus.

Cyprus had facilitated us because it had already unilaterally submitted the coordinates for EEZ with Turkey, which is also connected to the Greek region.

The agreement establishing an EEZ with Italy was signed, which is regarded as a good agreement despite the protests of some (a product of rather incomplete information).

It's ongoing the diplomatic efforts and negotiations for the same with Egypt.

If the agreement with Cyprus had been signed, it would have been easier to demarcate with Egypt, which is now having second thoughts. Egypt does not accept the logic of the middle line in all regions and argues that some islands do not have full influence and that in these cases there should be another settlement.

A Greek-Egyptian agreement on EEZ will break the illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum. (this is more than obvious or clear)

But Egypt, for internal/domestic political reasons, probably wants to avoid its involvement or take a position on the Greek-Turkish "differences" (ie Kastellorizo, Stogmili, Rhodes, Karpathos, Crete, Golden, Koufonisi, etc.).

Some ideas or proposals for signing a partial agreement between Greece and Egypt on the EEZ, i.e. where there are no differences, have also been put forward in the discussions and leave the SW region of Cyprus for the future.

This means that the area adjacent to the Greek and Cypriot EEZ remains pending.

Is this right for Greece? For the Hellenism?

Does a partial agreement between Greece and Egypt on the EEZ make the situation in Cyprus more difficult?

Over the last fifty years, we have been experiencing Turkey's tactics, which have now become a conspicuous challenge to sovereign rights and is characterized by aggression and expansionism.

We act predictably, we overestimate the risk of deploying naval forces in the area.

But the Turkish frigates were/are already in the area.

In addition, Erdogan has announced the conduct of seismic researches in the SE region of Crete, with the aim of drilling and exploitation of the deposits.

In other words, we are heading towards new (difficult to reverse) things, as Turkey has begun to gradually implement the final phase of the memorandum with Libya as part of the great idea of the "Blue Homeland".

It is not only limited to the signing of memorandums but also offers as gifts, areas that do not belong to it (e.g. Egypt)

The concept of deterrence has been misinterpreted and is limited to statements of a strict but rhetorical nature.

Calmness and appeasement probably don't work anymore.

If the excuse is to avoid the challenge, we've already missed another episode. The facts have passed us by.

What has happened and this illegal, irregular, irrational, and expansive Erdogan’s behavior is not prevented, it is not stopped?

Why do the International Organizations, large and small countries/forces, tolerate or even accept Turkey's behavior?

It is probably because their interests have not yet been harmed.

Let's remind them.

We are seeking an explanation for the behavior of these countries, but we do not use (Greece and Cyprus, as appropriate), the privilege of our participation in NATO and the EU.

We are moving on to the logic of avoiding 'conflict' with other countries which, as a rule, are doing business in or trade with Turkey.

We complain about geography, but Geography doesn't change.

Maybe we should study the map and history better.

We also invoke the god "Wind" to make the situation difficult.

The wind, however, does not discriminate.

Our good intentions in whatever way they are expressed have been perceived as weakness and submissiveness.

Unfortunately for us, when Turkish flags will be flying at the points of drilling, then the “fait accompli” can be irreversible.

Erdogan does not intervene to defuse the crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, nor does he intend to make goodwill gestures or moves to de-escalate tension.

On the contrary, it will seek to overturn all our plans with the aim of provoking domestic political conflict or even crisis and worsening the economic situation of the country either by a hot incident or by continuing pressure with any available tool of the Hybrid War and in this case, the first victim will the tourism in Greece.

What's to be done?

Urgently redefining a policy and a new strategy towards Turkey.

That is, to describe the "Vision" and identify the objectives and steps to be made.

To make Homeland Security a top priority and to set up the National Security Council. (many models and concepts are in place and exist, one will suit us too).

Ankara must understand our intentions.

To feel our breath on a political-diplomatic and military level.

Strengthen the Armed Forces, both institutionally and organizationally and at the level of armaments.

Reorganize and activate the National Defense Industry.

Use the privilege of the possibilities offered as being NATO and European Union member state by insisting on sanctions on the one hand and suspension of the candidate country's process.

Although Turkey is not interested in joining the EU, it is nevertheless estimated that the measure will have a cost to the general functioning of trade and human movement for traveling or migration or working.

To address the friends and allies with honesty and to point out that at the end of the day the national interest precedes bilateral relations.

To address specifically to the countries, Permanent Members of the UN SC.

To undertake, by all actors and means, including the “Greek DIASPORA”, an information campaign to all Forums, Countries, and Organizations, with a robust and specific "package" of information on the situation and developments with Turkey.

To plan for a communication "campaign" for the situation and positions of the country using all types of MEDIA and their respective social networking tools.

To inform the political forces and the Greek people about the process to be followed and the level of expectations concerning the EEZ and Continental Shelf issues with Turkey, as well as the other bordering countries.

Seek to maintain the communication channels with Turkey and to find ways to settle ONLY the issues of the EEZ and the Continental Shelf.

In any way, we must avoid a whole negotiation and the 'bargaining' on the issues raised by Turkey from time to time.

Improve the coordination and cooperation between Athens and Nicosia at all levels, aiming at a common hotline for addressing open issues.

Agree (Greece) and sign EEZ agreements with Cyprus, Egypt, Libya, and Albania.

To extend our Territorial Waters, in all areas, or even to the areas bordering Turkey to 10 Nautical Miles, in order to align them with the National Airspace (since the process of changing or extending/expanding the National Airspace is subject to a special Treaty and rather more complex process), in order to eliminate the "Greek paradox", as some, worldwide officials, claim and at the same time to "satisfy" Akar (MoD of TU), who regularly mentions the subject.

Expand the Territorial Waters to 12 Nautical Miles in all other areas, as it is a sovereign right, and this is the usual international practice.

It is imperative that movements/actions are needed to be taken at various levels and time is unfortunately pressing. And in the case of the exploitation of energy reserves is time becoming more pressing.

In view of climate change and environmental developments, financial data in the hydrocarbon market have already begun to trouble companies and question the technocrats to have a second thought.

It will not be surprising if one day (not far from today), the investment for the exploitation of hydrocarbons will be judged as unprofitable, especially in areas with special drilling, pumping, and transport conditions.

 "Time is not waiting " (Thucydides, Histories, A, 142)

(1) LtGeneral (R), Emeritus Commander of the 1st Army, Greece & Ex-Chief of National Guard, Cyprus

(2) Pictures are taken from the free in the web