Earth's #climate in 2022: what wrong about global warming?

The State of the Climate in 2022 (thegwpf.org)

The trend towards warming of the Earth's climate ended in 2016, according to the climate review for last year by Professor Ole Humlum.??

The survey covers a wide range of measurements: atmospheric and ocean temperatures, sea level, measurements of the amount of snow and ice and the frequency of storms.

Changes in the energy supply of the countries of the world today occur under the pressure of the theory of anthropogenic global warming. Governments that have accepted this theory as a guide to action are demanding a restructuring of the energy sector and the entire economy in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, primarily CO2. Therefore, objective information about the state of the climate has turned out to be one of the most important factors affecting the global future of the energy industry.

Ole Humlum's review "The state of the climate in 2022" shows that the increase in the temperature of the planet stopped in 2016, and the climate is greatly influenced by the South Pacific circulation, expressed in the change of cold (La Ni?a) and warm (El Ni?o) currents in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru.

The average air temperature at the surface of the earth

The global average surface air temperature in 2022 was almost identical to the previous year. More and more data suggests that 2016 may mean a global temperature peak. The coming years will show whether this is true or not.

The year 2022 was – like 2021 – influenced by the cold episode of La Ni?a.

The northern hemisphere was characterized by regional temperature contrasts, especially above 30°C. The most pronounced temperature phenomena in 2022 were low average temperatures in most of North America in the oceans around Greenland and northern Europe.

In contrast, most of Europe and the Russia-Siberia regions experienced relatively high temperatures in 2022 compared to the last 10 years.

In the Arctic, it was relatively warm in the Europe-Russia-Siberia sectors, while the weather was relatively cool in most of the Canada-Alaska sector.

Near the equator, the surface air temperature was generally close to or below the average for the previous 10 years. In the Pacific, cool conditions reflected the ongoing La Ni?a episode.

In the Southern Hemisphere, the surface air temperature was close to or below the average for the previous 10 years. In all major land areas in 2022 it was cool compared to the previous 10 years.

Summing up the results of 2022, we can say that the average global air temperature was high compared to long-term instrumental data (since 1850), but with assumptions about the general negative trend since 2016. However, they were affected by the ongoing La Ni?a in the Pacific Ocean.

A fundamental event for measuring surface temperature was the convergence due to the accounting of errors and the correction of the methodology for measuring ground temperature by traditional methods and satellite measurements of the temperature of the lower troposphere. The event reduces the possibilities of manipulating temperature measurements, practiced a dozen years ago in order to prove the AGW theory.

Lower Troposphere: land versus ocean

Since 1979, the lower troposphere has warmed significantly more over land than over the oceans. There may be several reasons for this, the author believes, for example, differences in the heat capacity of the surface and variations in incoming solar radiation, cloud cover and land use.

Temperature by altitude above sea level

One of the reasons for the interest in the vertical temperature profile is that an increase in temperature in the troposphere, along with a decrease in temperature in the stratosphere, are two central features of the hypothesis attributing global warming to a human-caused increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.

Temperature fluctuations recorded in the lower part of the troposphere are usually reflected at high altitudes, up to about 10 km above sea level, including many individual depressions and peaks, such as the El Nino-induced temperature spike in 2015-16.

At high altitudes, near the tropopause, the pattern of variations recorded below in the atmosphere repeats, which can still be recognized, but during the entire observation period (since 1979) there is no clear trend towards an increase or decrease in this temperature.

Above in the atmosphere, in the stratosphere, at an altitude of 17 km, two pronounced temperature jumps were observed before the beginning of the century. Both of them may be associated with large volcanic eruptions. If we do not take them into account, then until about 1995, the stratospheric temperature record shows a constant and noticeable decrease, which several scientists attribute to the effect of heat retained by CO2 in the troposphere below (a dubious assumption, since there is an intensive exchange of energy/temperature between all layers in the atmosphere under conditions close to the ideal gas state). However, a noticeable decrease in stratospheric temperature ends around 1995-96, and since then there has been a long temperature plateau.

In 2020, there was a noticeable but short-term peak in stratospheric temperature, which was quickly followed by a drop in temperature of a similar scale. Since the end of 2020, stratospheric temperatures have mostly returned to pre-2020 levels.

Zonal air temperatures

In the Arctic region, warming was rapid in the period 1994-96, but subsequently warming slowed down. In 2016, temperatures peaked for several months, presumably due to oceanic heat released into the atmosphere during the 2015-16 El Nino, which then advected to higher latitudes. A slight decrease in temperature has been characteristic of the Arctic since 2016.

In the Antarctic region, the temperature has essentially remained stable since the beginning of satellite recording in 1979. In 2016-17, there was a temperature peak noticeable on the monthly record, which can be interpreted as a muted influence of the recent El Nino episode.

Temperature peaks in the Arctic and Antarctic caused by El Nino episodes, as mentioned above, paradoxically, are caused by the ventilation of heat from the Pacific Ocean near the equator. They therefore represent the cooling process of the Earth, if we consider them in a broader context.

Atmospheric greenhouse gases

Water vapor

Water vapor (H2O) is the most important greenhouse gas in the troposphere. Its greatest concentration is observed in the latitudinal zone from 50 ° s.w. to 60 ° s.w. The two polar regions of the troposphere are relatively dry. H2O is a much more important greenhouse gas than CO2, both because of its absorption spectrum and its higher concentration.

The figure shows that the specific atmospheric humidity remains stable or increases slightly to a height of about 4-5 km. At higher levels in the troposphere (about 9 km), the specific humidity decreases throughout the recording time (since 1948), but with shorter variations superimposed on the downward trend. Fourier frequency analysis (not shown here) shows that these changes depend not only on annual variations, but also on a cycle lasting about 35 years.

The general decrease since 1948 in the specific humidity at an altitude of about 9 km is noticeable, since this height approximately corresponds to the level where, theoretically, the temperature effect of an increase in the CO2 content in the atmosphere should manifest itself.

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important greenhouse gas, although less important than H2O. Since 1958, there has been a tendency to increase its concentration in the atmosphere with the imposition of an annual cycle. At the end of 2021, the amount of atmospheric CO2 was close to 419 parts per million (ppm). CO2 is generally regarded as a relatively well-mixed gas in the troposphere.

The 12-month change in tropospheric CO2 increased from about +1 ppm/year at the beginning of the recording, to about +2.6 ppm/year by the end of the recording.

The Fourier frequency analysis shows that the 12-month change in tropospheric CO2 content is particularly affected by a significant periodic variation lasting 3.6 years.

That is, the water temperature determines the CO2 content, and not vice versa (as the water surface temperature increases, the concentration of CO2 dissolved in water decreases). The same pattern was obtained in the study of Antarctic ice cores.?

Correlation of carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature records

Sea level change has the most dubious connection with climate change. The level of the world ocean is influenced by processes inside the planet, about which we know very little or nothing at all, and which are often impossible to measure correctly:?

- general expansion/contraction of the planet;?

- changing its configuration due to internal processes, for example, the movement of lithospheric plates;?

- age-old uplifting/lowering of the Earth's crust, for example, in various parts of both the European and Asian parts of the territory of the former USSR, the relative average rate of change in the surface profile was determined from hundredths of a millimeter to several tens of millimeters per year.

Note also that there is no reference point on the surface of the planet from which it is possible to reliably count the rise or fall of sea level. All measurements are taken relative to some conditional points for which there is no guarantee of stability.?

According to a long-term study by Australian oceanographer Simon Holgate, the sea level rose by only ten centimeters between 1904 and 1953, and then by only 7.25 centimeters between 1954 and 2003.

The area of sea ice has changed over the years of measurements, but nothing catastrophic happens.

Conclusion: there is no catastrophic climate change on planet Earth. There is no evidence that an increase in the concentration of #CO2 in the atmosphere leads to global warming.

Also, the data suggest that the change in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is a consequence of changes in the temperature of the oceans for reasons unknown to science.