Earning surprises may drive markets higher
Driven by strong policy support China markets had one of its strongest weekly returns since the beginning of the year. China’s CSI 300 was +7.55% and +16.03% last week. The US’ S&P 500 Index +1.76% last week and -1.42% year to date. Hong Kong and European markets were relatively more muted only +1.40 and +0.06% last week.
AQUMON’s diversified ETF portfolios were +0.07% (defensive) to +1.68% (aggressive) last week and +1.91% (defensive) to -1.07% (aggressive) year to date. Due to the recent surge in Chinese stocks our SmartGlobal portfolios (investing into HK ETFs and having more exposure to HK/China region) are returning -0.53% (defensive) to +3.13% (aggressive) year to date. Last week all risk assets particularly stocks rebounded strongly. Beyond Chinese stocks emerging market stocks (+4.48%) and US technology (+4.67%) also saw highly positive returns.
This week our focus will be looking at what is the next market driver along with why investors may not have many choices but to continue investing in stocks in this low interest rate environment.
Earnings surprises may be the next factor to drive markets higher
As of Tuesday the US’ S&P 500 Index has rebounded back +42.91% since its March 23rd lows. The biggest driver for US markets? Technology stocks. Earnings season may change this as investors hunt for lower valuation names with upside. We are already starting to see investors rotate slightly out of the technology sector.
Why? We are currently right at the start of the US earnings season and with earnings expectations set so low that means that “big beats” (positive earnings surprises) may be ahead and in turn bring further uplift for markets. Analysts estimate that Q2 earnings expectations have been cut close to 40% (largest cut since 2008) and less than 50 US companies have set earnings guidance for Q2. So earnings are currently set up to surprise on the upside. So far we have already seen positive earnings surprises particularly within the financial industry by Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase. Further “beats” are expected for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Morgan Stanley and others.
Even with this potential positive news investors should keep in mind this doesn’t mean earnings are actually positive, just positive relative to low earnings expectations (there is a difference!). History has suggested stock markets do have positive correlation to earnings beats even if expectations are extremely low. In the current environment where markets are quite dislocated from fundamentals we would suggest investors err on the side of caution by viewing this potential earnings driven uplift as ‘icing on the cake’.
Why? As global stock markets start to revert back to non-negative year to date returns there will likely be short term profit taking putting downward pressure on markets. Furthermore when looking closer at the beats by these respective banks (Citigroup, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs) a few things jump out at us: 1) the earnings surprises by these banks were mainly driven by trading revenue 2) banks are setting aside a large amounts (these 3 banks combined US$16.7 billion (~HK$129.5 billion) for defaults on potential bad loans. This echoes why we feel managing your portfolios risk remains important in this current environment.
For investors, to ride out this short term volatility, continue to focus on investments that you find favorable in terms of a medium to long term time horizon along with managing your portfolio’s downside risk.
With interest rates/yields so low on bonds, stocks may be the only choice
This is the new reality for investors even with many market unknowns ahead. With central banks cutting interest rates in early March to prop up financial markets the yield on bonds as an asset class in general have become less and less attractive. A good reference is looking at the US’ 10 year treasury rate (~0.64%) versus say the S&P 500’s dividend yield (~1.93%) this year:
From this you see even for investors chasing yield/income, getting that in turn from stocks is still relatively more attractive. So in this low interest rate environment investors might not have many choices but to continue chasing stocks and thereby providing the market with more support and potential uplift. This outlook is echoed by strategists by Goldman Sachs this week which they still estimate the S&P 500 to average annual returns (including dividends) of 6% over the next decade. Goldman did a similar exercise in 2012 whereby they forecasted a return of 8% but so far they are seeing an actual 13.6% gain (so we should take their ‘crystal ball’ outlook with a grain of salt).
Clearly we’re not asking investors to blindly chase the market based on a few factors but as astute investors we need to understand more sides of the picture before we make our investment decisions.
So what should investors do? With the tensions going on between multiple superpower countries right now coupled with the unknown details of an actual plan, market volatility for investors will continue to be elevated likely for the rest of the year. The US’ VIX Index (fear gauge) is inching up again since the beginning of July currently around levels of 29.52 as of Tuesday:
In the meantime for investors, diversifying your investment portfolios’ regional exposure (investing globally) is an astute way to minimize downside risk from these ongoing political tensions. We’ve had multiple investors ask us are there any county markets where we feel may be better positioned than others and our immediate response is look at which countries have more ample policy and monetary support. In this case we feel this applies to both the US and China. To update a famous Warren Buffet quote where he said “never bet against America” we feel maybe it is time to say “never bet against America...and China” from an investment outlook perspective.
If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to reach out to us at AQUMON. We’re always happy to help. Thank you again for your continued support for AQUMON, stay safe outside and happy investing!
Ken
About us
As a leading startup in the FinTech space, AQUMON aims to make sophisticated investment advice cost-effective, transparent and accessible to both institutional and retail markets, via the adoptions of scalable technology platforms and automated investment algorithms.
AQUMON’s parent company Magnum Research Limited is licensed with Type 1, 4 and 9 under the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In 2017, AQUMON became the first independent Robo Advisor to be accredited by the SFC.
AQUMON’s investors include Alibaba Entrepreneurs Fund, Bank of China International and HKUST.
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