Early warning signs for countries are now showing....
The reported data is slowing updating and the figures are concerning, here's why...
The last week has seen cases of the virus doubling over a few days......The small daily figures don't matter, it's how often they double.....
Starting with higher case numbers, places like Hong Kong and Singapore (with stricter quarantine rules) have a slower growth rate over time....
Detected cases in Italy doubled on average every 4 days....now at 10,000 cases the country is in full lockdown....
US cases doubling every 2.3 days....
The UK is doubling at the same rate as Italy (on average every 3 days now around 300 cases). If this trend continues from today for 2 weeks it'll be 9,600 cases, in 6 weeks it'll be 9.8m....
Keep your eyes on these important metrics. Hopefully containment will work but the figures aren't showing that at the mo.
These figures show the exponential rise in China. At the end of Jan it doubled every 2,3,4 days when we were on voluntary lockdown. That slowed down to doubling over 21 days only after most major cities were home quarantined and getting temperature checks every day.
Take care people and be safe, consider voluntary quarantine if you are over 60 or have pre-existing conditions (at least for the next 14 days).
Sources : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6