Early Voting Totals, Dueling Nebraska Maps, Michigan Republicans Up Investment

Providing you with a recap of this week’s top five news items and resources straight from our experts.?

Early Voting Totals?

The earliest national early voting numbers are published, and according to the Target Early/Target Smart website, the big change when compared to 2020 totals is the big increase in the non-affiliated participation rate. A total of 4.39 million people nationally have already cast their ballot, and a whopping 61.7% are from the non-affiliated category. This compares to their 52.9% total of all early votes cast in 2020.??

Democrats, so far, are 24.4% of the early vote total, down from their 27.0% share in the 2020 presidential election. Republicans are further off, recording only 12.8% of the early vote as compared to their national total of 18.3% in 2020.??

Naturally, these numbers will change drastically as the early voting process proceeds toward the election. In 2020, a total of 85.9 million people (54.3% of the total ballots cast) voted early from the universe of over 158 million who participated in the election. At this preliminary stage, the ballots already cast represent 5% of the early vote total from the 2020 presidential election.?

It is likely that the early vote total will be lower in 2024 since the virtual universal mail vote in 2020 was largely a court-ordered emergency measure that won’t be in effect this year.?

Dueling Nebraska Polls?

Just after Sen. Deb Fischer (R) released her Torchlight Strategies internal survey (10/5-8; 600 NE likely voters) that posted the two-term incumbent to a 48-42% lead over Independent Dan Osborn, the challenger’s campaign responded with mirror image data.??

According to a Survey USA poll for the Osborn campaign (10/9-12; 563 NE likely voters; multiple sampling techniques), it is the Independent who claims the six point lead, 50-44%. In order to add validity to their positive numbers, the Osborn campaign also released the results for Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R) race. The appointed Republican incumbent and former Governor holds a 16-point lead within the same polling sample, 53-37%.??

The Fischer race continues to confound Nebraska Republicans since the data consistently indicates that this contest is a legitimate upset possibility while all other Republican statewide candidates are posting double-digit leads.?

Michigan Republicans Up Investment?

The Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) firms partnered on a Michigan voter poll for AARP (10/2-8; 600 MI likely voters from a universe of 1,382 MI registered voters; live interview and text) and the results project that Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) holds a 49-46% edge over former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R).? The presidential vote, as a point of reference, was tied a 46% apiece between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.?

The results of this and other similar polls were enough to convince the Senate Leadership Fund to spend an additional $10.5 million in media time.? The new expenditure brings the SLF entire investment to $33 million.? It appears the three Senate races in which Republicans see recent positive movement are Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.?

Dueling Maps?

Two data organizations released national maps based upon their polling averages, and both presidential candidates would clinch the election on one respective map.? The FiveThirtyEight data would give Vice President Kamala Harris a 276-262 win.? The Real Clear map gives former President Trump a more substantial victory at 312-226.?

The differences: 538 gives Harris victories in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but the victory margin is less than one percentage point in each place.? Real Clear places each of the aforementioned states with Trump.? Perhaps the most interesting commonality between the two maps is that both Real Clear and 538 see Trump winning Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.?

Catholic Voter Survey?

The National Catholic Reporter commissioned a voter survey in seven swing states, and particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin former President Donald Trump has opened a large lead: 18 points in the latter and a dozen in the former.?

Looking at the seven states as a whole, Mr. Trump holds a 50-45% advantage over Vice President Harris within the Catholic sample.? The survey was conducted by Mercury Analytics (10/3-8; 1,172 Catholic voters in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA and WI; online).? Ms. Harris, however, does well with Black (77% support) and Hispanic (67% support) Catholics within this sampling universe.? Mr. Trump dominates among white voters with a 16% advantage.?????

In the swing states, the largest Catholic percentage of the state population is in Wisconsin (25%) and Nevada (25%), with Pennsylvania closely following (24%).? Arizona (21%) and Michigan (18%) are next, while Georgia (9%) and North Carolina (9%) lag behind.?

A friendly reminder: We've done our research, but you should, too! Check reliable sources for the most up to date information.?

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