An Earful

Hello from Paris,

I hope you are enjoying this digest of Geopolitical Dispatch – the intelligence briefing by the team of former diplomats at Geopolitical Strategy .?

On the death of Abraham Lincoln, Benjamin Disraeli (not yet Prime Minister) told the British parliament, "Assassination has never changed the history of the world... even the costly sacrifice of a Caesar did not propitiate the inexorable destiny of his country... [and] the violent deaths of two heroic men, Henry IV of France, and the Prince of Orange, are conspicuous illustrations of this truth".

The attempt on Donald Trump's life, had it been successful, may well have "changed the history of the world". But, since it failed, it will only likely reinforce broader trends.

America will remain just as polarised, edgy and dysfunctional, although both campaigns' heated rhetoric will diminish. Trump, emerging bloodied and defiant, will be judged stronger than his frail opponent and have a greater chance of retuning to the Oval Office. And the prospects for other politically-motivated violence in the lead-up to and after November's election will, if anything, only increase.

But fears America is on the brink of civil war or that, come November, there could be some revolution, are overblown. Such events are exceedingly rare. America has, deficiencies notwithstanding, robust institutions, a strong civil society, capable government and an independent judiciary - all bulwarks against both civil strife and authoritarian capture.

Amidst a cacophony of both utopian and doomsday predictions about the world fundamentally changing forever with the Covid pandemic, French author Michel Houellebecq wrote during the first lockdown that "we will not wake up, after confinement, to a new world; it will be the same, only a little worse". The same could probably be said of what the world -- or at least America -- will look like when we wake up after the November elections: the same, only a little worse.

Nevertheless, the world is on edge. Amid attempted assassinations, hot wars, nuclear escalation, and shock election results, there's never been a more important time to understand the underlying causes of our geopolitically-driven world and their consequences.

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Damien