E-bikes power lead-acid battery demand in China

Tianneng Power International, one of the largest producers of batteries for e-bikes and e-trikes in China, reported a 16% jump in sales of lead-acid batteries last year. This is notwithstanding regulations which were introduced in April 2019 which set new standards for e-bikes, including the introduction of a 55kg total weight limit, including batteries. Some assumed that this would mean the rapid end of the use of lead-acid batteries in the e-bike market, to be replaced by li-ion batteries. 

We saw a rather different outcome as set out in our presentation to the 21st International Lead Conference in Madrid in June 2019 which we entitled “In all the EV hype – don’t forget the e-bike.” We acknowledged that some of this key market for lead-acid batteries would be lost to li-ion but assumed that there would be continuing and significant sales of e-mopeds and e-motorbikes, which do not face the same weight limitations as e-bikes, and that most of these larger e-mopeds and e-motorbikes would still be powered by lead-acid batteries. Cost is the principal advantage that lead-acid batteries still have over li-ion, but there are also concerns over the safety of li-ion batteries, especially during charging.

Although li-ion batteries make it easier for manufacturers to offer e-bike models meeting the 55kg weigh limit, we note that many of the smaller, lighter e-bikes are still being powered by lead-acid batteries. This reflects the response of the battery manufacturers to meet the challenge of producing lead-acid batteries with greater power density than in the past. 

In a recent report we reassessed our forecast for e-bikes sales and lead demand in China. This concluded that there would likely be an increase in lead-acid battery demand for e-bikes/mopeds/motorbikes over the next few years, before a modest decline in the second half of the current decade. At no time over the course of the next few years do we expect lead demand in the two-wheel e-bike sector in China to fall below 1 million tonnes a year.

For over 20 years CHR Metals has been providing analysis, insight and forecasts covering all aspects of global markets for lead and zinc from mine supply to end-use consumption. For more information about our services please contact Huw Roberts.