The dust is settling
Thomas Wille
Chief Investment Officer | Thought Leader bridging Investment Strategy and Al | Public speaker on Global Macroeconomics, Market Strategy, Digital Finance & Innovation
The twentieth party congress of the Chinese Communist Party took place last week with great attention and equally enormous expectations. While the event took place against the backdrop of strict pandemic conditions, it was as always conducted with the utmost precision. As expected, President Xi Jinping was con-firmed by the Central Committee for a third term, and the state General Secretary of the Communist Party has thus clearly consolidated his political power.
The dust is settling
At the party congress, President Xi Jinping focused on China’s perception in the international context, but also on further rearmament. Now that the dust has settled, a certain shift from economic to ideological priorities can be observed. For example, loyalty was given top priority in the top government appoint-ments, and it appears that know-how and competence were secondary in the selection of top officials. Thus concerns in the financial markets are growing that this will slow the progress in the economic sphere and make the political environment more unpredictable for investors. The political influence on “private” companies could increase further in the foreseeable future.
Subdued growth prospects
The growth outlook for the world’s second-largest economy remains mixed in our view. On the negative side, there are enormous problems in the real estate market, which is suffering from overinvestment and high leverage. These problems will certainly keep investors worry for some time to come. In addition, the government's rigorous Zero-Covid strategy has a massive negative impact on economic growth. Up to 20% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is in a virtual lockdown. Due to the consistent implementation of the pandemic measures in China’s important economic centers, the country has become a less reliable trading partner for multinational Western companies. As a result, some companies have already started to relocate part of their production to other countries.
On the positive side, however, we would like to mention the following points. First, China’s export performance has improved despite the lockdowns and, secondly, the government is supporting economic growth with fiscal stimulus. Likewise, China’s inflation rate (graph 1) remains moderate by international standards. This offers some room for maneuver on the monetary side.
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Our scenarios
Our base scenario (70%) assumes Chinese GDP growth of around 5% in 2023, which would be below the Chinese government’s target. A more positive scenario (20%) would require a recovery in global economic growth and a soft landing of the US and European economies. The negative scenario (10%) would see further deterioration in China’s real estate market, leading to greater turmoil in financial institutions.
We remain on the sidelines
Uncertainty factors remain dominant, and weaker global economic growth due to the consistent fight against inflation in the G7 nations, as well as another pandemic outbreak in winter with corresponding lockdowns weigh on the outlook for China’s economy. Valuations are low by historical standards, but investors are demanding a higher risk premium due to political realities. In our view, many of the uncertainties already appear to be factored into prices. However, we believe that we may see better entry opportunities in the next two to three quarters. Against this backdrop, we remain on the sidelines.