DUBLIN METROLINK: THE CHALLENGES OF A MEGAPROJECT

Major Projects are by nature controversial; rarely do taxpayers, politicians, environmentalists, and others agree on their execution. They are BIG and delivering them will always be costly and painful. Still, they are essential. Can you imagine Paris and London without their metro networks, or Holland without its flood protection system?

Metrolink is a proposed metro line for the city of Dublin, and it replaces an earlier proposal called Metro North, which was first recommended in the then-Irish Government's 2005 Transport 21 plan. Only now, 19 years later, the project is going through its statutory planning procedure.

According to the National Transport Authority (NTA), in a transport assessment1 of Dublin City Centre, 55 % of residents uses private cars and the bus network (26% cars, 29% bus). The same report says the bus network faces several constraints, such as high traffic volumes, insufficient bus priority lanes, insufficient connectivity, and interchangeability with other multi-modal transports. These numbers demonstrate a great opportunity to improve public transport in Dublin. A metro system can provide better service to the users, shorter commuting time, less pressure on traffic conditions, and as a consequence fewer emissions. ?

In addition to the Dublin’s transport network, due to the lack of a rail connection to the city centre, Dublin Airport - the main gateway of the country - is limited in passenger numbers. This fact alone should be enough reason to push for a metro line in Dublin, because limiting the airport growth, is for Ireland, a constrain to its economic development.

However, after 19 years of discussion, Metrolink suffers from general disbelief. There are doubts if it will be delivered, and if it ever hits the ground, some say, it will cost at least double than what is expected. ?People cannot be blamed for thinking this way, as 80% of megaprojects fail to be delivered on time and on budget1.

One of the biggest enemies of Megaproject is time, a project becomes more vulnerable to external events if it is overly extended. Metrolink was already affected by the 2011 financial crisis, the COVID pandemic, a sharp rise in labour costs, two conflicts happening in the world, technology evolution, and other events during this wait. The project would probably have cost less than projected, if delivered ten years ago as planned.?

Managing megaprojects not to go over budget and over time is a herculean effort, but there are ways to achieve success. As Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg explains in his book "How Big Things Get Done"2, heavy planning in advance of execution is crucial to identify issues and find solutions before facing them on the construction site.

There is a great level of expectations, to see the first works of Metrolink starting. But this anxiety may force the project to begin before all risks are correctly identified and treated, which may lead into future problems that can compromise the project goals.

On February this year, Aan Bord Pleanála (ABP is the national independent statutory body that determines applications for strategic infrastructure and other developments), held an Oral Hearing for Metrolink. This activity is not only important for ABP to make its decision to grant or not the permit, but also is a unique opportunity for the project team to direct hear from several stakeholders’ valuable information on issues that maybe were not known or treated as a minor risk, with no significant impact.

An example of these issues are the concerns of ABP on noise and vibration impacts, the affirmation of a traditional hotel in Dublin city centre, that will need to pause operations during two weeks for the boring machine to work below its structure, and the argument of a current development informing the route needs to be changed. If not correctly treated, these two topics can imply in works delays and/or financial compensation, which will affect both schedule and cost.

Metrolink needs to start with the right foot not to become a national disaster, and identifying as many risks as possible before the project hits the ground is key to avoiding future surprises. The anxiety to take such a project off the paper can damage the whole endeavour, using Prof. Flyvbjerg's words, "Think slow, act fast."3

As an enthusiastic advocate of public transport, I believe it's time for Dublin to get on board and embrace the development of Metrolink, provided that it's executed in accordance with the best project management available.

References:

1.???? Flyvbjerg, Bent, Introduction: The Iron Law of Megaproject Management (April 2017). Bent Flyvbjerg, 2017, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management, Oxford University Press, Chapter 1, pp. 1-18. Available at SSRN:?https://ssrn.com/abstract=2742088

2.???? Jacobs Engineering Ireland Limited, 2021” Greater Dublin Area Transport Studies Dublin City Centre Area Final Report” (Dublin)

Flyvbjerg, B., & Gardner, D. (2023).?How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors that Determine the Fate of Every Project from Home Renovations to Space Exploration, and Everything in Between.Penguin Random House.

SIMONE MENDONCA

Senior Project Manager with over a decade of experience in complex projects in several infrastructure sectors.

MSc in Major Programme Management from Said Business School. Oxford

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