DSTV Premiership Recap and Justice League Table - Round 4

*here is the link to the article that explains all concepts and abbreviations used in this article - https://www.dhirubhai.net/feed/update/urn:li:ugcPost:6963806921929732096?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_updateV2%3A%28urn%3Ali%3AugcPost%3A6963806921929732096%2CFEED_DETAIL%2CEMPTY%2CDEFAULT%2Cfalse%29

Another exciting weekend of?DStv?Premiership action is over and there were some surprise results:

Moroka Swallows 2 - 3 Amazulu

Golden Arrows 0 - 0 TS Galaxy

Sekhukhune United 1 - 1 Mamelodi Sundowns

Cape Town City FC 1 - 1 Stellenbosch FC

Maritzburg Utd 2 - 1 Chippa Utd

Kaizer Chiefs 1 - 0 Richards Bay FC

Royal AM 2 - 2 Marumo Gallants

SuperSport Utd 0 - 0 Orlando Pirates

A stunning Friday night victory for Amazulu sees them lead the way on 10 points, followed by TS Galaxy & Orlando Pirates on 8 points each. At the bottom, Cape Town City, SuperSport Utd & Golden Arrows each have just 2 points.

This is what the Justice League Table looks like after 4 rounds:

It is clear that with more information the Justice League Table is starting to normalise. This will take more games to completely happen but the signs are there. The Justice League Table is really simple, you want to be as close to the top and you want the far right to be red and a high negative number. That means that you are performing at a really high level and you are getting results for those performances (either through superior finishing or goalkeeping, which is probably the case for Sundowns or through some luck).

Amazulu deservedly won a 5-goal thriller on Friday night with a wrongly awarded penalty against them being cancelled out by a random goalkeeping error by Swallows keeper, Mbanjwa. A magnificent goal by Gumede in the 90th minute won it for Amazulu. To date they haven't performed well (sitting 11th in the Justice League Table) but they've been getting results. Can Brandon Truter use this performance as a benchmark for improvements going forward? If he can, the title charge is on.

The model predicted a 1-1 draw between Sekhukhune Utd and Mamelodi Sundowns and this is exactly what happened. However, chances created and conceded paint a different picture. Sundowns were unfortunate not to grab all three points in this game, winning it on xG 0.99 - 1.66.

Kaizer Chiefs sit comfortably top of the Justice League Table and they overcame an early red card in their game with Richards Bay FC to win 1-0 thanks to a penalty. Even with a man less for an hour, Chiefs should beat Richards Bay FC at home, according to their overall ratings shown above. A 9% home advantage in the PSL basically means that the crowd literally are a 12th man, so the last hour of the game was in fact 11 v 11. Chiefs have the 2nd best attack and defence in the league, which is a great balance to have in the squad. Can their long awaited striker signing, Bonfils-Caleb Bimenyimana push their attack to the top? I analysed and adjusted his stats at his clubs in Slovakia and Kazakhstan to PSL level and this is where he would rank relative to PSL players last season:

Here is the link to the brief analysis -https://twitter.com/Rent_Fourie/status/1560345157731590147?s=20&t=eJgS6cqcSEbxqboydOwDqw

Now let's compare the xG from the Justice League to the actual goals scored on the PSL log and see which teams are over-/underperforming:

Cape Town City are still the best attacking team in the league so far this season and they racked up a league high 2.21 xG against a normally resolute Stellies defence. They were terribly unlucky not to score more than the 1 goal, with Gonzalez missing from point blank range in the 9th minute although he made up for it with a great header later on. Stellies accumulated an impressive 1.87 xG in the game and also should have scored more than 1. Mendieta, just like Gonzalez made up for a close range chance missed with a lovely header to equalise for the Winelands team from another sumptuous Basadien cross, what a signig he is proving to be.

Marumo Gallants are comfortably the worst attacking team in the league despite improving slightly from last week. They scored 2 goals against a bad Royal AM defence but sterner attacking tests lie ahead and they will need to improve.

The biggest underperformers in attack are SuperSport Utd, with Bradley Grobler and Iqraam Rayners accumulating plenty of xG but being unable to take those chances. As Gavin Hunt mentioned in his post-match press conference, Thamsanqa Gabuza scores the big chance he had 99 times out of a 100. Unfortunately for SuperSport Utd, currently they're getting the 1 instead of the 99.

Now let's compare the xGA from the Justice League to the actual goals conceded on the PSL log and see which teams are over-/underperforming:

It's a familiar story at the top of the xGA rankings, with Pirates, Chiefs and Sundowns leading the way. Richards Bay FC have been bottom and by some margin for a while now and they can't seem to sort out their defensive issues. Their 6th in the league attack is keeping them from serious trouble but over the course of a season, a bad defence will cost you dearly. TS Galaxy might not have conceded a PSL goal yet but they've been living dangerously and they conceded 1.53 xGA this weekend against Golden Arrows. Such defensive performances are bound to catch up with a team over the long run. Last week we highlighted Melusi Buthelezi's heroics to date - can he keep Galaxy in the hunt?

Swallows are the team that are underperforming xGA by the most (conceding 0.61 goals per game more than expected) but if one looks at the performance of their goalkeeper against Amazulu then this comes as no surprise. Thakasani Mbanjwa, signed from Tuks this summer, would need to raise his level so the Swallows defence can reap the rewards they deserve.

Looking ahead, we have a full midweek schedule to look forward to. I expect tight games between Cape Town City and Kaizer Chiefs, Royal AM and Maritzburg Utd and comfortable wins for Sundowns at home to Stellenbosch FC as well as Orlando Pirates and SuperSport Utd, who play Marumo Gallants and Richards Bay FC respectively.