Drought Disrupts Fertilizer Deliveries and Crops in Southern Africa

An ongoing drought across parts of Southern Africa has hampered fertilizer distribution and crop production in the region, leading to increased maize import demand. Over the past year, countries like Zambia and Zimbabwe have been hit particularly hard by arid conditions.

For Zambia, the drought slashed fertilizer movement ahead of the 2023/24 agricultural season as inventories were held back due to uncertainties around planting conditions. Deliveries from Beira, Mozambique, and Durban, South Africa into landlocked areas were down significantly versus prior years.?

Zimbabwe has similarly faced fertilizer supply chain bottlenecks due to the drought, cutting projected fertilizer sales by 25-30% for the current growing season based on industry estimates. Both availability and affordability have been issues with the importation and inland distribution of fertilizers from ports like Beira.

On the production side, maize yields in Zambia and Zimbabwe are expected to disappoint amidst the unfavorable weather patterns. Fears around maize shortages have prompted Zimbabwe to lock in imports of over 1 million tons from Mexico and Ukraine to boost domestic supplies.

Zambia may need to significantly ramp up maize purchases as well if the drought persists through the summer. The country produced enough maize to be self-sufficient in the 2021/22 season but may face a deficit of 500,000 tons or more this year according to government forecasts.

The increased import demand for maize, coupled with distribution hurdles for fertilizer inputs, threatens to drive up food insecurity across drought-impacted areas of Southern Africa in the months ahead. Logistics providers are bracing for a potential spike in grain haulage demand should the region face widespread crop failures.