Drones - Tesla, Bieber and Lady Gaga!

Article Objective: Discuss the past, present and future of drones and the primary propositions that were marketed with at each stage. Describe the references to Nikola Tesla, Justin Bieber and Lady Gaga with the drone industry.

Target Audience: UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) enthusiasts. Marketers of Robotic Products. Business students who are exploring complementary applications for drones.

One out of every 10,000 people on Earth has seen a drone. A higher proportion must have at least seen one on media. Take anyone who regularly buys consumer electronics and ask them what they think a drone is used for - they’d be quick to reply “Military strikes and aerial photography!”. Drones became popular first, when the U.S. CIA director John Brennan mentioned ‘drone strikes’ in his memoir published in 2000. The media followed up on the reveal and worked hard to popularize drones as ‘targeted killing machines. Years later, today, we are swarmed by many harmless selfie-drones making people look up either for posing or in awe. Drones have reached enough number of hands that they have begun to attract conversations around the social implications they could cause if they multiply at the same rate.

Much before drones became prevalent in military operations and much after drones started harbouring cameras into the sky, they’ve seen many an avatar and purpose. This article hopes to expose to you what the drone was and will become with specific examples arranged chronologically. As a marketer, I have added my insights on what I believe are the changing ‘dimensions of value’ that drones were positioned to sell for in each of its evolutions.

Payload without a Pilot

Imagine the time when we began launching humanoid bots to places where human astronauts couldn’t go. Cases where we want to carry payload along a route without endangering the life or spending for the pilot’s return. The Montgolfier brothers first achieved this when they launched unmanned balloons with cargo in 1782. The Austrians replaced cargo with bombs to attack Venice in 1848. A decade later, Tesla demonstrated that it is possible to communicate with these balloons using radio waves. Fast forward thirty years into 1896 and we’ve just begun exploring the use of UAVs in the military.

Tesla demonstrated that it is possible to communicate with these balloons using radio waves.

Stealth and Precision

Drones are relatively small when compared to an aircraft that serves the same purpose. While the replacing a trained pilot with an autonomous system may not have been economical in the 1890s, the abilities to hide-and-observe, target-and-attack made drones a favourite among well funded military nations. In the 1940s, Operation Aphrodite used remote-controlled bombers to launch missiles upon its enemies. The U.S. during the Vietnam war used 3500 Lightning bug and Ryan Firebee jet-propelled drones to bring down their causality numbers fighting camouflage guerrillas. The Amber and Pioneer drones became popular among American and Israeli air forces when they deployed for combat in 1986. It was only later in the ‘90s that the military began exploring possibilities to use drones peacetime operations.

Lightweight Long range Cost efficiency

For flying missions that were meant to transport lightweight material and be operated mid-air, aircrafts proved too expensive. Aerial photography, cloud seeding, and crop spraying required well-trained pilots, daylight and economies of scale in operation to become economically viable. As GPS navigation systems with gyroscopes became more accurate (thanks to missile technology), drones began replacing aircrafts for operations that had to be performed with lightweight payload, over long periods of time and with great efficiency. Self-stabilizing sensors have improved the use of drones in photogrammetry and surveillance since 1991. The first drone to assist with climate and environmental monitoring got launched in 1993. From peacetime purposes, drones found a market in leisure in entertainment when it helped carry concert lights for to produce dizzy effects for the first time in 1999. 18 years later, Lady Gaga’s Superbowl performance with similar concert drones stands testament to a successful opportunity capitalised.

Lady Gaga's 2018 Superbowl performance used a synchronized swarm drone system developed by Intel to create a starry sky.

Agile Uncontrolled Youth

Imagine a hot-blooded and agile young adult. With her speed, stamina and adrenaline rush she can be coached to be a champion at anything she is trained to do. She might even surprise you with her ability to improvise, earn public support and learn from other coaches. Left unwatched, her potential can become dangerous to society. She might over-indulge in something, hurt someone for thrill or even do something casual to her but controversial to society.

Drones today are in this stage. They first began appearing on the Gartner Hype Cycle as an independent research area after 2003. Between then and now, drones have found terrific growth and adoption on several civilian applications. Three companies – DJI, 3d Robotics and SenseFly/Parrot are in the verge of becoming unicorns by 2020 manufacturing drones for the North American and Western European markets. High-quality data collection both for recreational (videography and gaming) and commercial purposes (like surveying, surveillance, and logistics) have been the early adopter markets.

Release before Regulation catches up

The youth version of today’s drones have had a commercial rebirth from its veteran parents because of three technological improvements in the areas of miniaturisation, micro-electronics and power systems. Like the young who break barriers to diversity and collaborate, drones are manufactured in a more modular fashionable to integrate itself with data-capture, energy storage, electronics, actuator, communication, and artificial intelligence technologies. The same fear that a powerful celebrity youth like Justin Bieber could evoke due to his unprecedented growth, drones have begun to evoke. Still evolving collision control systems make drones become risky when they fly close to other vehicles. Their communications system interrupts air-traffic and ability to take pictures from the sky could lead to a loss of privacy for others in the neighbourhood. The same young people who could’ve been trained for public safety and wildlife monitoring can cause greater harm to these causes. Regulation that intends to channel the safety and privacy issues concerning drones will become its biggest barrier.

Like Bieber in controversy growing up, Drones are fighting attention and regulation

The taming market

When the youth go crazy, adults organise themselves to explore business opportunities to help them become safe and teach them ethics. So have the adults from Tech – Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have developed Advanced Patrol Platforms (APPs) to manage drone navigation. Other tech platforms are helping prevent drone crashes, compromised drones, interference with FAA operations, manage privacy and prevent operators going rogue. The development of 3D geofencing, swarm robotics. Robotics interaction interfaces, Traffic control systems, and open-space optical communication have all found greater market opportunities on the flanks of the drone industry. Forming strategic alliances like the one between Aeryon and Microsoft will help the youth grow with the adult’s reputation for guidance.

Path of least resistance

The future of drones looks terrific mainly due to congestion of ground bots and 3D mobility of payload. The complementary technologies that help deliver high-quality, real-time data in a cost-effective way further propel this growth. Amazon envisions a future a personal mini-drones that launch from your shoulder and can be operated by voice command. Drones will start to replace helicopters entirely for most purposes that don’t require passenger transit. Drones parts will be 3-D and retrofitted for different commercial purposes on the move.

Even though issues around safety (due to signal interference and collision) may be solved with better technology, and hardware developed to improve upon existing capabilities, it is the regulatory leash around privacy and traffic that will dictate where drones find the greatest growth. For marketers, this means they would have to look at the world through the lens of STP (Segmentation-Targeting-Positioning). The markets the least regulatory resistance due to low privacy concerns might become the most lucrative and consequently crowded markets. Take for example the infrastructure industry – drones may be used for inventory management, investment monitoring, and maintenance. Since the data is only collected from private property and in non-intrusive ways (like Lidar) they find the least resistance for commercial adoption.

Novelty again!

The future of drones will be a creative moon-shot. By 2035, the Gartner Hype Cycle predicts that commercial drones will hit a plateau in sales saturating application areas prevalent today. With a stable regulation in place, the ability to operate drones won’t become difficult and may require a registering with the FAA (Federal Aviation Authority). Multiple platforms will arise to help drones operate in a safe and ethical manner for leisure and entertainment. At this stage, when the drone becomes a commodity, margins will be available to only the truly creative. Marketers would chase new business models, application areas and collaboration platforms to sell these autonomous carriers. I’ve illustrated one future scenario of what this would look like to let you stay excited whether you will be a spectator or participant in the drone revolution.

You live in Edison, New Jersey and wake up to receive a power-breakfast you ordered the last night on Alexa delivered on a drone. As you get into your Waymo carpool taxi, you peer out of the window and watch cars begin taking turns before you. A drone with traffic lights suspended below it is moving to divert congestion. An autonomous stands toppled in accident due to hack from a nearby car. Four drones, each from the insurance, police, media and nearby hospital arrive at the scene to capture data and help tow the car out of there. A transmitter drone is coordinating with patrol drones elsewhere to divert traffic and optimise routes for an ambulance. Closer to office your Waymo launches a mini-drones to search for a drop-off spot and open electric charging terminal. You’ve reached New York and sit in your office while your personal drone flies over the Hudson to a construction site your company handles. The local authorities have complained that you are violating rules. To inspect your drones convene at the construction site and allow you to watch the area in your MagicLeap glasses while discussing to each other’s hologram the details of the violation. You agree then to send your drone to appear in court and settle the case. You drone out of your dreams!

Marilyn Monroe was first spotted in a drone facility. Today drones take more attention than the ones who build them. Attention can live or let live celebrities!

Karthik is a student of Babson College MBA’19. He is passionate about marketing tangible hi-tech products. In this article, he discusses some of his insights around the changing propositions Drones have held in their past, present and future avatars.

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References:

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