Driving – Community Changes

A lot of folks think autonomous vehicles are far from dominating our highways. However, the average of estimates predicts a 35% increase in autonomous vehicles within 10 years, and 85% within 15 years. As much as we struggle with technology as individuals, society collectively gobbles up every new gadget and integrates it into our daily lives quickly. Autonomous vehicles are being tested by almost every major vehicle manufacturer. Autonomous vehicles are already delivering semi-truck loads of beer, hauling rock and ore in mining operations, cultivating and seeding thousands of acres of land, as well as taking people to visit their grandma. They are here to stay.

Autonomous vehicles will cause more changes to our communities in the next 15 years than every other piece of technology has in the last 150. Imagine a city full of autonomous vehicles. An entire network of vehicles all talking to each other would be exceptionally safe. The biggest risk to public safety would be human drivers who aren’t tied into the system. People may not be allowed to drive in that system, to prevent the human element of chaos disrupting the order. Keeping roadways safe would then come down to not allowing human drivers in such a system. And without humans driving, there would be no need for stop signs, merge signs, and traffic lights. Imagine that. I bet the first progressive mid-size city makes such a proclamation within 15 years.

Imagine how many fewer vehicles you would need on the road and how many fewer parking spots you would need—if you need any parking spots at all in a city entirely made up of autonomous vehicles. With so many fewer vehicles, we would no longer need the wide multi-lane roads we are currently building. But that isn’t even the beginning. Imagine autonomous electric cars that run off highly efficient batteries that are charged entirely by those new clear solar panels invented at Michigan State University in 2015. A driverless car, requiring no refueling, with virtually no maintenance, always on the road, and being close when you need it. What does that mean?

In a few short years, you could be using an app on your phone that calls up that car. An algorithm in the network would help it determine where it should be, so it is never too far away and doesn’t leave you waiting long. As well, the vehicle would have very low operating costs. It would be so cheap and quick to take one of these from one end of the city to the other—and you get door to door service, no less.

What does that mean for public transportation? The chatter is often that autonomous vehicles will destroy the automobile industry, but I believe it will destroy the public transportation industry. Why would you buy a ticket for the bus or subway when you can take one of these new autonomous vehicles already appearing on our roads, door-to-door, for the same price? Could you imagine the embarrassment felt by municipal leaders who spent billions on a subway that takes years to construct, only to have no one show up at the ribbon cutting, or to ride it from that first day on, because that investment is already obsolete? That doesn’t mean we should not build subways, but are we even considering the municipal disruptions coming that could cause such an investment to be a waste?

Will three-car garages be necessary in a world where autonomous vehicles are so prevalent and affordable? The cost of owning a vehicle averages about $10,000 per year, for something that is parked 95% of the time, on average. Is that investment worth it? I talk to the generation after me and they seem to have very little interest in owning a vehicle. I know vehicles are still a status symbol for many of us, but so too was wearing wing tip shoes or a bowler hat. What we believe is important changes, and status symbols do too. Owning a vehicle isn’t going to be as important as it once was.

Technology has caused many disruptions in many industries over the last 200 years. The design, operation, and construction of communities has not changed drastically in a few generations, but all that is about to change. The next 15 years are going to see disruptions that will affect us, right where we live, and for the sake of our future, it is time to prepare and adapt for what is coming.

It is critical that our communities plan and prepare for the future. It is also important that we not see every change as a threat, but rather as an opportunity. That can be difficult, however, since so many of us truly dislike change, and resist it at any turn. As a community leader, your success depends on helping your community adapt to changes that are coming. If you need help managing change, just give us a call – we know, There’s Always A Way.